Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps

[muon2]

The statement seemed so strange that I just failed to read it literally. I didn't anticipate that someone would want to mix two so unrelated and somewhat antithetical goals.

[ElectionsGuy]

2 Obama districts in Kansas:



1 (red): 49.4% Obama, 49.3% McCain
2 (blue): 50.6% Obama, 47.5% McCain
3 (yellow): 62.9% McCain, 35.1% Obama
4 (green): 67.7% McCain, 30.4% Obama

both of those districts probably went to Romney in 2012 and highly doubt you could make two 2012 Obama districts, only one.

[Flake]

2 Obama districts in Kansas:



1 (red): 49.4% Obama, 49.3% McCain
2 (blue): 50.6% Obama, 47.5% McCain
3 (yellow): 62.9% McCain, 35.1% Obama
4 (green): 67.7% McCain, 30.4% Obama

both of those districts probably went to Romney in 2012 and highly doubt you could make two 2012 Obama districts, only one.

I made that exact map a few months ago!

[ElectionsGuy]

Nothing too extreme here, but a Colorado republican gerrymander 4-3.



Denver:



Red: 51.6% McCain, 46.6% Obama
Blue: 74.8% Obama, 23.6% McCain
Yellow: 64.9% Obama, 33.3% McCain
Green: 58.3% Obama, 40.0% McCain
Orange: 50.4% McCain, 48.2% Obama
Purple: 59.0% McCain, 39.3% Obama
Lime Green: 53.5% McCain, 45.0% Obama

I made that exact map a few months ago!

Oh, that's interesting. Are there any parts you did differently (like, drastically different)?

[Flake]

I made that exact map a few months ago!

Oh, that's interesting. Are there any parts you did differently (like, drastically different)?

Nope, the exact same thing, nice Colorado map btw.

[ElectionsGuy]

I made that exact map a few months ago!

Oh, that's interesting. Are there any parts you did differently (like, drastically different)?

Nope, the exact same thing, nice Colorado map btw.

Thanks.

[Flake]

I've never hated redistricting a state as much as Texas, from the random Democratic and Republican hotbeds, to Southern Texas, to the suburbs, and the very inconsistent voting districts that ranged from three people to over twenty thousand, I would like to say a few words to whoever designed this monstrosity of a voting map.

Anyways, I wanted to make a map with as many tossup seats as possible, since a certain Texan was disappointed that only one congressional district in the state was a toss up (the 2nd I believe), and here are the average Democratic/Republican results in each district (Obama overperformed in the cities and the suburbs and underperformed the rural areas).

Texas 1:
51.2% Republican
48.8% Democrat

Texas 2:
52.0% Republican
48.0% Democrat

Texas 3:
54.5% Democrat
44.5% Republican

Texas 4:
66.5% Democrat
33.5% Republican

Texas 5:
59.8% Democrat
40.2% Republican

Texas 6:
50.8% Democrat
49.2% Republican

Texas 7:
50.7% Democrat
49.3% Republican

Texas 8:
57.9% Democrat
42.1% Republican

Texas 9:
50.1% Republican
49.9% Democrat

Texas 10:
50.2% Republican
49.8% Democrat

Texas 11:
50.6% Democrat
49.4% Republican

Texas 12:
50.6% Republican
49.4% Democrat

Texas 13:
51.1% Democrat
48.9% Republican

Texas 14:
66.1% Republican
33.9% Democrat

Texas 15:
71.1% Republican
28.9% Democrat

Texas 16:
71.0% Republican
29.0% Democrat

Texas 17:
50.9% Democrat
48.1% Republican

Texas 18:
50.0% Democrat
50.0% Republican

Texas 19:
52.3% Democrat
47.7% Republican

Texas 20:
50.2% Democrat
49.8% Republican

Texas 21:
53.6% Democrat
46.4% Republican

Texas 22:
54.8% Democrat
45.2% Republican

Texas 23:
50.3% Democrat
49.7% Republican

Texas 24:
66.0% Republican
34.0% Democrat

Texas 25:
50.9% Democrat
49.1% Republican

Texas 26:
69.2% Republican
30.8% Democrat

Texas 27:
76.0% Republican
24.0% Democrat

Texas 28:
50.3% Republican
49.7% Democrat

Texas 29:
72.0% Republican
28.0% Democrat

Texas 30:
67.0% Republican
33.0% Democrat

Texas 31:
72.1% Republican
27.9% Democrat

Texas 32:
64.9% Republican
35.1% Democrat

Texas 33:
67.5% Republican
32.5% Democrat

Texas 34:
72.8% Republican
27.2% Democratic

Texas 35:
71.6% Republican
28.4% Democrat

Texas 36:
71.4% Republican
28.6% Democrat

[muon2]

Nothing too extreme here, but a Colorado republican gerrymander 4-3.



Denver:



Red: 51.6% McCain, 46.6% Obama
Blue: 74.8% Obama, 23.6% McCain
Yellow: 64.9% Obama, 33.3% McCain
Green: 58.3% Obama, 40.0% McCain
Orange: 50.4% McCain, 48.2% Obama
Purple: 59.0% McCain, 39.3% Obama
Lime Green: 53.5% McCain, 45.0% Obama

It looks like you could regroup the green and purple districts to make it 5-2.

[ElectionsGuy]

It looks like you could regroup the green and purple districts to make it 5-2.

Oh yeah, I could've. Well its too late now as I deleted it and I don't feel like making another one.

[Flake]

I wanted to get an Obama district in West Virginia, and it would certainly go to Mitt Romney in 2012, but oh well.

West Virginia 1 (blue)
50.9% Obama
47.4% McCain

West Virginia 2 (green)
59.4% McCain
39.0% Obama

West Virginia 3 (purple)
60.1% McCain
38.3% Obama

[Adam Griffin]

A pretty solid non-VRA Georgia Democratic gerrymander (10-4), at least for the number of seats. Two would definitely fold in a bad year, with a third being likely. All majority/plurality white districts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ElectionsGuy]

Texas!



Dallas/Fort Worth:



Houston:



San Antonio/Austin:



TX-1 (El Paso): 65.2% Obama, 34.8% McCain.
TX-2 (McAllen): 68.6% Obama, 31.4% McCain.
TX-3 (Brownsville): 64.4% Obama, 35.6% McCain.
TX-4 (Laredo): 69.0% Obama, 31.0% McCain.
TX-5 (San Antonio): 71.2% Obama, 28.8% McCain.
TX-6 (SA Suburbs): 57.4% McCain, 42.6% Obama.
TX-7 (Austin): 73.8% Obama, 26.2% McCain.
TX-8 (Austin Suburbs): 53.0% McCain, 47.0% Obama.
TX-9 (Waco): 58.3% McCain, 41.7% Obama.
TX-10 (South Houston): 77.1% Obama, 22.9% McCain.
TX-11 (North Houston): 77.7% Obama, 22.3% McCain.
TX-12 (SW Houston Suburbs): 68.7% Obama, 31.3% McCain.
TX-13 (West Houston): 60.7% McCain, 39.3% Obama.
TX-14 (East H Suburbs): 62.8% McCain, 37.2% Obama.
TX-15 (West H Suburbs): 66.8% McCain, 33.2% Obama.
TX-16 (Corpus Christi/South Central Texas): 64.0% McCain, 36.0% Obama.
TX-17 (A-SA-H Suburbs): 63.4% McCain, 36.6% Obama.
TX-18 (San Angelo/West SA): 62.9% McCain, 37.1% Obama.
TX-19 (South H Suburbs/Exurbs): 64.8% McCain, 35.2% Obama.
TX-20 (Beaumont/East H Exurbs): 58.8% McCain, 41.2% Obama.
TX-21 (College Station/East Texas): 69.5% McCain, 30.5% Obama.
TX-22 (North Houston Exurbs): 72.5% McCain. 27.5% Obama.
TX-23 (Dallas): 81.9% Obama, 18.1% McCain
TX-24 (Fort Worth/North Dallas): 69.3% Obama, 30.7% McCain
TX-25 (Central D/FW Suburbs): 54.3% McCain, 45.7% Obama
TX-26 (East Dallas Suburbs/Exurbs): 58.3% McCain, 41.7% Obama
TX-27 (North Dallas Suburbs): 55.0% McCain, 45.0% Obama.
TX-28 (West D/FW Exurbs): 64.6% McCain, 35.4% Obama.
TX-29 (North FW Suburbs): 66.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama.
TX-30 (Plano/Collin County): 62.8% McCain, 37.2% Obama.
TX-31 (Tyler): 71.4% McCain, 28.6% Obama.
TX-32 (NE Texas/Exurbs): 68.6% McCain, 31.4% Obama.
TX-33 (Amarillo/North Texas): 76.5% McCain, 23.5% Obama.
TX-34 (Abilene/Central Texas): 72.9% McCain, 27.1% Obama.
TX-35 (Lubbock/West Texas): 73.2% McCain, 26.8% Obama.
TX-36 (South D/FW Exurbs/Central Texas): 72.2% McCain, 27.8% Obama.

I saved this awhile ago and decided to bring it up. Its obviously a republican favored map, but I really didn't gerrymander it too hard (although 24th was pretty bad now that I look at it). Its 25-11 with basically all of them heavily leaning. No toss-ups.

[Flake]

Using the congressional system that True Federalist was talking about, here are four districts in Idaho, with Obama winning one:



Idaho 1 (blue):
49.7% Obama
47.8% McCain

Idaho 2 (green):
61.9% McCain
35.7% Obama

Idaho 3 (purple):
66.2% McCain
33.7% Obama

Idaho 4 (red):
72.3% McCain
25.2% Obama

[minionofmidas]

The challenge: Draw the most rural district possible (with population equality and contiguity requirements; ignore the VRA) for any state.

[Morning in Atlas]

Here's my best shot at Maine. How cities work is pretty weird here - the town of Hampden, the most populous place in ME-2, is almost seven times as big as Eastport, the smallest city. Either way, there are four cities in ME-2. You could slim the number down to two (Calais and Eastport both cut off half the district), but you'd have to cut into the suburbs of Portsmouth and Portland to get there (I already cut into those enough so I could bridge to Caribou/Presque).

The only remotely urban/suburban areas in ME-2 are Berwick, South Berwick, Eliot, Rockland, Belfast, Hampden, Farmington, and Fairfield. Out of the 49 most populous cities in the state, 41 are in ME-1 and 8 are in ME-2.

[muon2]

Here's a legitimate whole state plan I put together for KS in our redistricting thread a couple of years ago. It was designed to keep all the urban areas intact and compact. CD 1 has no urbanized area at all, and only Harvey county is even in a metro area as a commuter county.

The Manhattan metro is split (as also under the current map - Junction City and Manhattan would be better off together. If someone believes they ought to be in the 2nd together, fine with me. Except it does require taking the 1st all the way to either the northeast or the southeast corner.) The Wichita metro is also split in that proposal, and that is new. Though it's not a very consequential split, slicing off one satellite-town-dominated county of 20k people.

Honestly, if you want to keep Manhattan out of a reasonably designed first district... go repopulate the High Plains.

In my first map I kept Manhattan and Junction City together, but in CD 1. I can put them into CD 2 with KC and Topeka to make that district more compact. If I also make CD 4 more of a compact block, CD 1 runs to the SE corner. This version has a maximum deviation of 512 using only whole counties.

[minionofmidas]

(Other districts not sketched.) Contiguity requirements forced me to throw in Lake Havasu / Kingman, and to exclude the Tohono O'odham reservation (though I could have split it to maximize population surface area... but removing it wholesale from the draft magically made the population just right.)

[ElectionsGuy]

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Move over, ladies.



Ten Obama districts in North Carolina.

NC-1 (Blue)
52.6% Obama
48.8% McCain

NC-2 (Green)
52% Obama
47.2% McCain

NC-3 (Purple)
54.5% Obama
44.8% McCain

NC-4 (Red)
56% Obama
42.9% McCain

NC-5 (Yellow)
53.2% Obama
45.9% McCain

NC-6 (Forest Green)
54.5% Obama
44.8% McCain

NC-7 (Grey)
53.3% Obama
45.9% McCain

NC-8 (Indigo)
51.7% Obama
47.3% McCain

NC-9 (Turquoise)
50.1% Obama
49% McCain

NC-10 (Pink)
52% Obama
47.1% McCain

NC-11 (Lime Green)
52.6% McCain
46.3% Obama

NC-12 (Cornflower Blue)
62.6% McCain
36.2% Obama

NC-13 (Salmon)
63.3% McCain
35.4% Obama

[minionofmidas]

The figures and location for the limegreen district strongly suggest 11 is doable.

I drew huge-district Arkansas last night, but was in a hurry at the end and uploaded the map and closed DRA without saving it in a file and totally overlooked that I'd destroyed contiguity with my late edits. Not hard to restore, though.

[minionofmidas]

The figures and location for the limegreen district strongly suggest 11 is doable.

12 is not, in fact, hard to do.



1 50.1 - 49.2
2 49.9 - 49.5
3 50.2 - 49.1
4 53.9 - 45.0
5 55.8 - 43.1
6 51.3 - 44.7
7 50.1 - 49.1
8 51.2 - 47.9
9 49.8 - 49.4
10 50.1 - 49.1
11 49.8 - 49.2
12 49.9 - 48.8
13 32.5 - 66.3

If you want over 50%, D2 is not hard to do (just move some more Raleigh Blacks across to the 3rd and mess with the 2nd-3rd line), 9 and 11 clearly are doable as well. 12 probably is not. If I missed any trick there then it's not in the book.

With that huge surplus in the fifth, ie fairly far west... one can't help wondering if 13 contiguous Obama districts might not be just about theoretically possible somehow.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina:



Close Up on "Research Triangle", Winston-Salem/Greensboro, and Charlotte.



Nothing special here. This is a republican-favored map, but I just wanted to make it much neater/nicer and more fair to the democrats than the one they have now, even if its still republican favored.

NC-1: 52.9% McCain, 45.8% Obama. Likely R
NC-2: 67.4% Obama, 31.9% McCain. Safe D
NC-3: 61.9% McCain, 37.2% Obama. Safe R
NC-4: 62.9% McCain, 35.7% Obama. Safe R
NC-5: 61.2% Obama, 38.0% McCain. Safe D
NC-6: 72.5% Obama, 26.6% McCain. Safe D
NC-7: 64.4% McCain, 34.6% Obama. Safe R
NC-8: 52.0% McCain, 47.0% Obama. Lean R
NC-9: 52.9% McCain, 46.4% Obama. Likely R
NC-10: 54.6% McCain, 44.6% Obama. Likely R
NC-11: 56.2% Obama, 43.1% McCain. Likely D
NC-12: 51.2% Obama, 48.0% McCain. Toss-Up
NC-13: 57.7% McCain, 41.5% Obama. Safe R

[muon2]

The figures and location for the limegreen district strongly suggest 11 is doable.

12 is not, in fact, hard to do.



1 50.1 - 49.2
2 49.9 - 49.5
3 50.2 - 49.1
4 53.9 - 45.0
5 55.8 - 43.1
6 51.3 - 44.7
7 50.1 - 49.1
8 51.2 - 47.9
9 49.8 - 49.4
10 50.1 - 49.1
11 49.8 - 49.2
12 49.9 - 48.8
13 32.5 - 66.3

If you want over 50%, D2 is not hard to do (just move some more Raleigh Blacks across to the 3rd and mess with the 2nd-3rd line), 9 and 11 clearly are doable as well. 12 probably is not. If I missed any trick there then it's not in the book.

With that huge surplus in the fifth, ie fairly far west... one can't help wondering if 13 contiguous Obama districts might not be just about theoretically possible somehow.

Mathematically it could be possible to go 13-0. The R margin in 13 is 33.8% so you need to shift at least half of that (16.9%) into CD 13 to flip it as well. The total D excess in your CDs 1-12 is 38.0%, so that leaves only 4.2% that doesn't need to be shifted. If you left 1,2,3 and 7 alone that takes up 3.2% of your excess. All other districts would have to slim down to a 0.1% margin and somehow shift enough Dems into 13.

[Miles]

NC-1: 52.9% McCain, 45.8% Obama. Likely R
NC-2: 67.4% Obama, 31.9% McCain. Safe D
NC-3: 61.9% McCain, 37.2% Obama. Safe R
NC-4: 62.9% McCain, 35.7% Obama. Safe R
NC-5: 61.2% Obama, 38.0% McCain. Safe D
NC-6: 72.5% Obama, 26.6% McCain. Safe D
NC-7: 64.4% McCain, 34.6% Obama. Safe R
NC-8: 52.0% McCain, 47.0% Obama. Lean R
NC-9: 52.9% McCain, 46.4% Obama. Likely R
NC-10: 54.6% McCain, 44.6% Obama. Likely R
NC-11: 56.2% Obama, 43.1% McCain. Likely D
NC-12: 51.2% Obama, 48.0% McCain. Toss-Up
NC-13: 57.7% McCain, 41.5% Obama. Safe R

Your CD1 would be Safe for Shuler and since CD12 has all of Cumberland County, a Democrat could hold it after McIntyre retires.

[Flake]

Did a Florida one a few days ago, completely forgot about it.



1: 51.8 Obama, 48.2% McCain
2: 54.6% Obama, 45.4% McCain
3: 52.1% Obama, 47.9% McCain
4: 51.3% Obama, 48.7% McCain
5: 51.7% Obama, 48.3% McCain
6: 51.2% Obama, 48.8% McCain
7: 53.1% Obama, 46.9% McCain
8: 62.0% McCain, 38.0% Obama
9: 52.5% Obama, 47.5% McCain
10: 50.5% Obama, 49.5% McCain
11: 52.2% Obama, 47.8% McCain
12: 51.9% Obama, 48.1% McCain
13: 70.8% McCain, 29.2% Obama
14: 53.3% Obama, 46.7% McCain
15: 71.9% Obama, 28.1% McCain
16: 50.7% Obama, 49.3% McCain
17: 51.2% Obama, 48.8% McCain
18: 66.6% Obama, 33.4% McCain
19: 66.9% Obama, 33.1% McCain
20: 53.8% Obama, 46.2% McCain
21: 52.7% Obama, 47.3% McCain
22: 50.3% Obama, 49.7% McCain
23: 58.5% McCain, 41.5% Obama
24: 60.6% Obama, 39.4% McCain
25: 67.9% McCain, 32.1% Obama
26: 51.0% Obama, 49.0% McCain
27: 60.4% Obama, 39.6% McCain

Actually pretty happy with this map. It started out for me making a Democratic district for my county (Lake/FL-09 on here) and I just kind of filled out of the rest of the state.