Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Last one for the night.




GA-1 (Blue) = Lean D
53.6% Obama
45.7% McCain

GA-2 (Green) = Lean D
52.1% Obama
47.4% McCain

GA-3 (Purple) = Lean D
52.4 Obama
47.1% McCain

GA-4 (Red) = Safe R
67.5% McCain
31.9% Obama

GA-5 (Yellow) = Toss-Up/Tilt D
51.3% Obama
48.1% McCain

GA-6 (Teal) = Likely D
54% Obama
45.4% McCain

GA-7 (Grey) = Toss-Up/Tilt D
51.3% Obama
48.1% McCain

GA-8 (Slate Blue) = Safe D
56.9% Obama
42.3% McCain

GA-9 (Cyan) = Toss-Up/Tilt D
51.6% Obama
47.5% McCain

GA-10 (Pink) = Safe D
64% Obama
35.4% McCain

GA-11 (Chartreuse) = Lean D
53.6% Obama
45.7% McCain

GA-12 (Cornflower Blue) = Toss-Up/Tilt R
50.1% McCain
49.1% Obama

GA-13 (Salmon) = Safe R
71.3% McCain
27.8% Obama

GA-14 (Olive) = Safe R
67.9% McCain
31.2% Obama

GA-15 (Dark Orange) = Safe R
75.1% McCain
23.8% Obama

[Flake]

Last one for the night.

59 Democrats
50 Republicans

[Flake]

It may be the fact that it's four in the morning, but Tennessee is nope

1 (blue): 68.8% McCain, 29.8% Obama
2 (green): 69.3% McCain, 29.2% Obama
3 (purple): 67.7% McCain, 30.8% Obama
4 (red): 67.3% McCain, 31.2% Obama
5 (yeller): 49.8% Obama, 48.8% McCain
6 (teal): 50.1% Obama, 48.7% McCain
7 (gray): 49.5% Obama, 49.3% McCain
8 (slate blue): 54.9% Obama, 44.4% McCain
9 (cyan): 50.4% Obama, 48.4% McCain

64 Democrats
54 Republicans

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Another night without sleep = more maps from me.

(Don't worry, I'm not trying to draw the whole map or anything. )



NM-1 (Blue) = Likely D
53.4% Obama
45.2% McCain

NM-2 (Green) = Safe D
54.2% Obama
44.4% McCain

NM-3 (Purple) = Safe D
62.7% Obama
36.1% McCain




CO-1 (Blue) = Safe D
54.1% Obama
44.2% McCain

CO-2 (Green) = Safe D
56.3% Obama
42.1% McCain

CO-3 (Purple) = Likely D
53% Obama
45.2% McCain

CO-4 (Red) = Likely D
53% Obama
45.1% McCain

CO-5 (Yellow) = Safe D
59.5% Obama
38.8% McCain

CO-6 (Teal) = Safe D
54.9% Obama
43.4% McCain

CO-7 (Grey) = Safe D
54.1% Obama
44.4% McCain

CO-8 (Slate Blue) = Safe D
59.2% Obama
39.4% McCain

CO-9 (Cyan) = Lean D
51.9% Obama
46.7% McCain

CO-10 (Pink) = Safe R
61.4% McCain
37.1% Obama

Also, you might want to color DC red.

[morgieb]

Truly spectacular gerrymandering, this.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oklahoma:



OK-1 (blue): 62.7% McCain, 37.3% Obama = Safe R
OK-2 (red): 65.8% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
OK-3 (purple): 70.0% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R
OK-4 (yellow): 72.6% McCain, 27.4% Obama = Safe R
OK-5 (green): 56.1% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Likely R
OK-6(teal): 66.5% McCain, 33.5% Obama = Safe R

West Virginia:



WV-1 (blue): 54.8% McCain, 43.5% Obama = Likely R
WV-2 (green): 56.6% McCain, 41.7% Obama = Likely R

Note: Both of these are Safe R by 2012 standards, but in most cases they would be Likely R.

Arizona:



AZ-3 (purple): 53.0% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
AZ-4 (red): 59.3% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R
AZ-12 (cornflower blue): 57.1% McCain, 41.8% Obama = Safe R
AZ-2 (green): 56.4% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Safe R



AZ-1 (blue): 63.6% Obama, 35.1% McCain = Safe D



AZ-5 (gold): 58.6% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Safe D
AZ-6 (teal): 63.8% Obama, 34.8% McCain = Safe D
AZ-7 (dark grey): 56.1% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R
AZ-8 (slate blue): 60.9% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
AZ-9 (lime green): 53.8% McCain, 45.0% Obama = Likely R
AZ-10 (deep pink): 60.2% McCain, 38.7% Obama = Safe R
AZ-11 (yellow/green): 60.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R

[TJ in Oregon]

Michigan:


Detroit Metro:


1 (blue- Northern Michigan): Obama 50.1%-McCain 48.2% Lean R
2 (orange-Southwest Michigan): Obama 52.1%-McCain 46.3% Lean R
3 (purple-Lansing): Obama 50.7%-McCain 47.6% Lean R
4 (red-Thumb): Obama 49.8%-McCain 48.4% Lean R
5 (gold-Flint/Pontiac/Saginaw): Obama 66.2%-McCain 32.2% Safe D
6 (lime green-Southern Michigan): Obama 50.0%-McCain 48.3% Lean R
7 (black-Detroit/Ann Arbor): Obama 84.2%-McCain 14.9% Safe D, 50.6% VAP Black

Just like the real Michigan, there are no safe Republican seats, but they're favored in 5/7.

[Flake]

81 Democrats
77 Republicans

[Skill and Chance]

If we retained current coalitions (which we almost certainly won't), I would guess something like this for the partisanship of the 2061 map (>60% = safe, >50% = lean, Grey = swing state):

Democrats would be advantaged presidentially but Republicans would have a huge edge in the senate if this came to pass.

[TJ in Oregon]

Minnesota:


Minneapolis-St. Paul:


1 (blue-Duluth): McCain 48.9%-Obama 48.8% Lean R
2 (green-Minneapolis Suburbs): McCain 49.4%-Obama 48.9% Likely R
3 (purple-St. Cloud): McCain 49.0%-Obama 48.6% Lean R
4 (red-Rochester): McCain 49.3%-Obama 48.7% Likely R
5 (gold-Minneapolis): Obama 70.8%-McCain 27.3% Safe D
6 (lime-Southwestern Minnesota): McCain 49.6%-Obama 47.8% Likely R
7 (black-St. Paul): Obama 64.4%-McCain 33.6% Safe D

[ElectionsGuy]

Montana:



This is the one I used in a earlier post for states with 3 electoral votes currently anticipating 4 electoral votes.

MT-1 (blue): Obama 2008, Romney 2012. Lean R
MT-2 (green): McCain 2008, Romney 2012. Safe R

Kentucky:



KY-1 (blue): 58.8% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R
KY-2 (green): 52.5% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Lean D
KY-3 (purple): 56.0% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
KY-4 (red): 69.4% McCain, 29.0% Obama = Safe R
KY-5 (yellow): 59.3% McCain, 39.1% Obama = Safe R

[Miles]

Since most of us are doing these wacky maps.

10-4 D



Result (Atlas colors)

[TJ in Oregon]

Indiana:



This one actually doesn't look that ridiculous.

1 (blue-Gary): Obama 66.2%-McCain 32.9% Safe D
2 (green-Ft. Wayne): McCain 55.7%-Obama 43.3% Safe R
3 (purple-Northern Indiana): McCain 55.3%-Obama 43.6% Safe R
4 (red-Terra Haute): McCain 53.8%-Obama 45.1%  Safe R
5 (gold-Indianapolis): Obama 66.1%-McCain 33.1% Safe D
6 (teal-Anderson/Muncie): McCain 53.4-Obama 45.4% Safe R
7 (gray-SE Indiana): McCain 53.7%-Obama 45.2% Safe R
8 (black-Evansville): McCain 53.8%-Obama 45.0% Likely R

[muon2]

Montana:



This is the one I used in a earlier post for states with 3 electoral votes currently anticipating 4 electoral votes.

MT-1 (blue): Obama 2008, Romney 2012. Lean R
MT-2 (green): McCain 2008, Romney 2012. Safe R

This is my take on MT with 2 CDs. I used the 2012 county estimates and projected them forward to 2020. That allowed me to include Bozeman instead of Helena in the west CD.

[Flake]

99 Democrats
97 Republicans

[Miles]

Ugh, I put 10-4 D instead of 11-4 D for my map post. Make sure you account for that Flo.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin:



1 (blue-Janesville/Waukesha): McCain 52.1%-Obama 47.5% Safe R
2 (orange-NW Wisconsin): Obama 53.6%-McCain 44.6% Lean R
3 (purple-Madison/Driftless Area): Obama 67.3-McCain 31.3% Safe D
4 (gold-Milwaukee): Obama 70.7%-McCain 28.0% Safe D
5 (red-Mid Wisonsin): McCain 50.8%-Obama 47.8% Safe R
6 (green-Green Bay): Obama 51.9%-McCain 46.6% Likely R

Yes, I always make Green Bay in a green-colored district.

The only really competitive one here is the orange one, which I think Romney probably carried. The '08 numbers in Wisconsin are especially misleading in the north.

Excuse me while I vomit.

[ElectionsGuy]

Illinois:



IL-10: 53.3% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Lean D
IL-11: 50.4% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Lean R
IL-12: 49.3% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Likely R
IL-13: 49.2% McCain, 49.1% Obama = Likely R



IL-1: 82.6% Obama, 16.8% McCain = Safe D
IL-2: 88.1% Obama, 11.1% McCain = Safe D
IL-3: 84.5% Obama, 14.4% McCain = Safe D
IL-4: 75.3% Obama, 23.4% McCain = Safe D
IL-5: 58.9% Obama, 40.0% McCain = Likely D
IL-6: 55.2% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
IL-7: 54.2% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Lean D
IL-8: 57.1% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Lean D
IL-9: 55.2% Obama, 43.2% McCain = Lean D

I'm probably being a bit generous with my ratings as well. Obama numbers in the Midwest in general (except Minnesota and Iowa) are very misleading.

Iowa:



IA-1 (blue): 59.9% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Likely D
IA-2 (green): 51.4% McCain, 47.0% Obama = Likely R
IA-3 (purple): 54.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Lean D

[Flake]

111 Democrats
101 Republicans

[muon2]

Illinois:



IL-10: 53.3% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Lean D
IL-11: 50.4% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Lean R
IL-12: 49.3% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Likely R
IL-13: 49.2% McCain, 49.1% Obama = Likely R



IL-1: 82.6% Obama, 16.8% McCain = Safe D
IL-2: 88.1% Obama, 11.1% McCain = Safe D
IL-3: 84.5% Obama, 14.4% McCain = Safe D
IL-4: 75.3% Obama, 23.4% McCain = Safe D
IL-5: 58.9% Obama, 40.0% McCain = Likely D
IL-6: 55.2% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
IL-7: 54.2% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Lean D
IL-8: 57.1% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Lean D
IL-9: 55.2% Obama, 43.2% McCain = Lean D

I'm probably being a bit generous with my ratings as well. Obama numbers in the Midwest in general (except Minnesota and Iowa) are very misleading.

You need to adjust a lot to compensate for the 2008 numbers in IL. IL 6 in your map would perform better than Roskam's pre-2012 district, DuPage minus the northeast corner is safe R. Will plus Kendall in your IL-7 would be likely R (think Weller from the 2000's). With so much of McHenry. your IL-6 is probably toss-up to lean R. Your IL-9 would be well suited for someone like Manzullo and is likely R. Schock would be a lock in your IL-10, so it too would be likely R. The other downstate districts in that map (11-13) are all safe R.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

MO-1 (Blue) = Toss-Up/Tilt D
51.1% Obama
47.4% McCain

MO-2 (Green) = Toss-Up/Tilt D
51.9% Obama
46.8% McCain

MO-3 (Purple) = Safe D
55.3% Obama
43.6% McCain

MO-4 (Red) = Safe D
63.6% Obama
35.4% McCain

MO-5 (Yellow) = Safe R
64.2% McCain
34.2% Obama

MO-6 (Teal) = Safe R
61.9% McCain
36.9% Obama

[ElectionsGuy]

You need to adjust a lot to compensate for the 2008 numbers in IL. IL 6 in your map would perform better than Roskam's pre-2012 district, DuPage minus the northeast corner is safe R. Will plus Kendall in your IL-7 would be likely R (think Weller from the 2000's). With so much of McHenry. your IL-6 is probably toss-up to lean R. Your IL-9 would be well suited for someone like Manzullo and is likely R. Schock would be a lock in your IL-10, so it too would be likely R. The other downstate districts in that map (11-13) are all safe R.

Yeah, I thought I would underestimate. Realistically the R's have at least a good shot in 5-13.

[Flake]

It's Maine, 1 went 54-44 and 2 went 61-37.

117 Democrats
103 Republicans

[Flake]

There's no reason to post the numbers, all of the districts are likely to safe Obama.

121 Democrats
103 Republicans

[ElectionsGuy]

Massachusetts:



All districts are democratic-leaning. The only district that could possibly be in play for republicans is the 8th, where Obama *only* got 53.7%. There's a couple 56-ish% districts as well (2,5) but they would almost certainly go to the democrats. Every other one is safe.