Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps

[Flake]

Massachusetts:

130 Democraps
103 Republicants

[Flake]

Florida



I'm not going to list all the numbers because

• I'm lazy

The only ones that went Republican are

• District 4 (red)
• District 6 (teal)
• District 7 (gray)
• District 24 (pale violet red )

The closest one was district 1 (blue), where Obama won by about 200 votes.

158 Democrats
107 Republicans

[Flake]

Nebraska



1 (blue): 56.3% Obama, 42.2% McCain
2 (green): 58.4% McCain, 40.2% Obama
3 (purple): 68.8% McCain, 29.5% Obama

159 Democrats
109 Republicans

[morgieb]

Pennsylvania:



1 (blue): 89% Obama, 11% McCain = Safe D.
2 (green): 69% Obama, 30% McCain = Safe D.
3 (purple): 56% Obama, 43% McCain = Lean D.
4 (red): 58% Obama, 41% McCain = Lean/Likely D.
5 (yellow): 56% Obama, 43% McCain = Lean D.
6 (teal): 55% Obama, 44% McCain = Lean D.
7 (grey): 56% McCain, 43% Obama = Safe R.
8 (light purple?): 54% McCain, 45% Obama = Likely R.
9 (light blue/turquoise): 55% McCain, 44% Obama = Likely R.
10 (pink): 50% McCain, 48% Obama = Toss-up.
11 (lime): 61% Obama, 38% McCain = Safe D.
12 (some blue which is hard to explain): 52% McCain, 47% Obama = Toss-up.
13 (brown-ish): 60% McCain, 39% Obama = Safe R.

Pretty competitive map.

[muon2]

Pennsylvania:



1 (blue): 89% Obama, 11% McCain = Safe D.
2 (green): 69% Obama, 30% McCain = Safe D.
3 (purple): 56% Obama, 43% McCain = Lean D.
4 (red): 58% Obama, 41% McCain = Lean/Likely D.
5 (yellow): 56% Obama, 43% McCain = Lean D.
6 (teal): 55% Obama, 44% McCain = Lean D.
7 (grey): 56% McCain, 43% Obama = Safe R.
8 (light purple?): 54% McCain, 45% Obama = Likely R.
9 (light blue/turquoise): 55% McCain, 44% Obama = Likely R.
10 (pink): 50% McCain, 48% Obama = Toss-up.
11 (lime): 61% Obama, 38% McCain = Safe D.
12 (some blue which is hard to explain): 52% McCain, 47% Obama = Toss-up.
13 (brown-ish): 60% McCain, 39% Obama = Safe R.

Pretty competitive map.

Any district McCain won is by 5 points or more is going to be safe R. Any district McCain won at all is going to be likely R. Districts where Obama was held under 53% will still be lean R. Remember that 2008 was the largest percentage win for a Dem since LBJ and shouldn't be viewed as typical for determining congressional outcomes.

[Flake]

Pennsylvania:



1 (blue): 89% Obama, 11% McCain = Safe D.
2 (green): 69% Obama, 30% McCain = Safe D.
3 (purple): 56% Obama, 43% McCain = Lean D.
4 (red): 58% Obama, 41% McCain = Lean/Likely D.
5 (yellow): 56% Obama, 43% McCain = Lean D.
6 (teal): 55% Obama, 44% McCain = Lean D.
7 (grey): 56% McCain, 43% Obama = Safe R.
8 (light purple?): 54% McCain, 45% Obama = Likely R.
9 (light blue/turquoise): 55% McCain, 44% Obama = Likely R.
10 (pink): 50% McCain, 48% Obama = Toss-up.
11 (lime): 61% Obama, 38% McCain = Safe D.
12 (some blue which is hard to explain): 52% McCain, 47% Obama = Toss-up.
13 (brown-ish): 60% McCain, 39% Obama = Safe R.

Pretty competitive map.

166 Democrats
115 Republicans

[Miles]

Any district McCain won is by 5 points or more is going to be safe R. Any district McCain won at all is going to be likely R. Districts where Obama was held under 53% will still be lean R. Remember that 2008 was the largest percentage win for a Dem since LBJ and shouldn't be viewed as typical for determining congressional outcomes.

Would that really apply to western PA though? e.g, Critz barely lost a McCain +9 seat in 2012 and Altmire held a McCain +11 seat pre-redistricting.

[muon2]

Any district McCain won is by 5 points or more is going to be safe R. Any district McCain won at all is going to be likely R. Districts where Obama was held under 53% will still be lean R. Remember that 2008 was the largest percentage win for a Dem since LBJ and shouldn't be viewed as typical for determining congressional outcomes.

Would that really apply to western PA though? e.g, Critz barely lost a McCain +9 seat in 2012 and Altmire held a McCain +11 seat pre-redistricting.

That's about the power of incumbency. I was referring to ratings like the PVI that best apply to open seats. With only the benefit of 2008 data, an approximate PVI can be found by subtracting 53.7% from the Dem share of the two-party vote. Positive results are D-leaning and negative results indicate an R-leaning district.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oregon:



OR-3 (Purple): Lean D
OR-4 (Red): Likely D
OR-5 (Yellow): Likely R
OR-6 (Teal): Likely R



OR-1 (Blue): Safe D
OR-2 (Green): Likely D

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

New York.  This slowed my computer down so badly (I had to close the program down!) that I'm not even going to try getting the numbers, but Obama carried every district.  The last three or four were close.




Take that, Peter King!

[Flake]

Who wants to be the martyr and gerrymander California?

[ElectionsGuy]

Washington:



WA-1: 50.6% McCain, 47.0% Obama = Lean R
WA-2: 51.4% Obama, 46.6% McCain = Lean D
WA-7: 59.2% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
WA-8: 55.7% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Likely D
WA-9: 50.4% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Lean R
WA-10: 57.2% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D



WA-3: 84.6% Obama, 13.9% McCain = Safe D
WA-4: 64.3% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
WA-5: 60.7% Obama, 37.6% McCain = Safe D
WA-6: 59.9% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
WA-11: 57.5% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D

Who wants to be the martyr and gerrymander California?

California is WAY too slow for me to even tolerate and there's no election results with a ridiculous amount of districts. Definitely not worth it.

[Gass3268]

Hopefully by 2060 we have national redistricting reform for fairer maps.

[JerryArkansas]

Who wants to be the martyr and gerrymander California?

California is WAY too slow for me to even tolerate and there's no election results with a ridiculous amount of districts. Definitely not worth it.

There is election data, but it is only with block groups. 

[Flake]

Oregon:

Since nobody is going to color California, I'm just going to use the total representative pool and one democrat + one republican.

237 Democrats
136 Republicans

Welp we have a winner

If anyone wants to color Texas or New Jersey or Hawaii, please do so.

[Flake]

Both districts are safe, going 70%+ Obama.

239 Democrats
136 Republicans

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

NJ-1 (Blue) = Safe D
56.2% Obama
43.8% McCain

NJ-2 (Green) = Safe D
54.4% Obama
45.6% McCain

NJ-3 (Purple) = Likely D
53.7% Obama
46.3% McCain

NJ-4 (Red) = Safe D
56.8% Obama
43.2% McCain

NJ-5 (Yellow) = Safe D
55.2 Obama
44.8% McCain

NJ-6 (Teal) = Safe D
55.6% Obama
44.4% McCain

NJ-7 (Grey) = Safe D
65% Obama
35% McCain

NJ-8 (Slate Blue) = Safe D
57.4% Obama
42.6% McCain

NJ-9 (Cyan) = Safe D
56.3% Obama
43.7% McCain

[Flake]

248 Democrats
136 Republicans

[muon2]

NJ-1 (Blue) = Safe D
56.2% Obama
43.8% McCain

NJ-2 (Green) = Safe D
54.4% Obama
45.6% McCain

NJ-3 (Purple) = Likely D
53.7% Obama
46.3% McCain

NJ-4 (Red) = Safe D
56.8% Obama
43.2% McCain

NJ-5 (Yellow) = Safe D
55.2 Obama
44.8% McCain

NJ-6 (Teal) = Safe D
55.6% Obama
44.4% McCain

NJ-7 (Grey) = Safe D
65% Obama
35% McCain

NJ-8 (Slate Blue) = Safe D
57.4% Obama
42.6% McCain

NJ-9 (Cyan) = Safe D
56.3% Obama
43.7% McCain

That's actually a map with a number of competitive districts. Christie probably won from 4 to 6 of those 9 in 2009 and 8 of 9 in 2013. They certainly aren't safe D, mostly lean to likely D.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

NJ-1 (Blue) = Safe D
56.2% Obama
43.8% McCain

NJ-2 (Green) = Safe D
54.4% Obama
45.6% McCain

NJ-3 (Purple) = Likely D
53.7% Obama
46.3% McCain

NJ-4 (Red) = Safe D
56.8% Obama
43.2% McCain

NJ-5 (Yellow) = Safe D
55.2 Obama
44.8% McCain

NJ-6 (Teal) = Safe D
55.6% Obama
44.4% McCain

NJ-7 (Grey) = Safe D
65% Obama
35% McCain

NJ-8 (Slate Blue) = Safe D
57.4% Obama
42.6% McCain

NJ-9 (Cyan) = Safe D
56.3% Obama
43.7% McCain

That's actually a map with a number of competitive districts. Christie probably won from 4 to 6 of those 9 in 2009 and 8 of 9 in 2013. They certainly aren't safe D, mostly lean to likely D.

I wasn't really taking state races into account when I made any of these maps.  My rule of thumb for this was that if Obama wins by ten points or more, it probably wasn't a huge swing from 2004, and so a Democrat would have likely either kept the district or knocked out a Republican incumbent.  I know that probably wasn't true for every race, though.

[Miles]

I wasn't really taking state races into account when I made any of these maps.  My rule of thumb for this was that if Obama wins by ten points or more, it probably wasn't a huge swing from 2004, and so a Democrat would have likely either kept the district or knocked out a Republican incumbent.  I know that probably wasn't true for every race, though.

Particularly in south Jersey. The blue district would be Tossup best for Democrats against LoBiondo.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I wasn't really taking state races into account when I made any of these maps.  My rule of thumb for this was that if Obama wins by ten points or more, it probably wasn't a huge swing from 2004, and so a Democrat would have likely either kept the district or knocked out a Republican incumbent.  I know that probably wasn't true for every race, though.

Particularly in south Jersey. The blue district would be Tossup best for Democrats against LoBiondo.

A D+1 district where Obama won by eight points in 2008?  Yeah, realistically that'd be Likely R in a non-wave year.  (If LoBiondo is running, of course.)

[Sol]

Although, of course, some of those north Jersey districts would have actually swung to Obama.

[ElectionsGuy]

I call dibs on Texas! I've been working on it for last 45 minutes.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Instead of the usual North/South divide, I divided Delaware up with the Eastern half and the Western half.

District 1 (blue)
67.1% Obama
31.8% McCain

Solid D



District 2 (green)
56.8% Obama
41.9% McCain

Likely D

Are those districts really equal?   It looks like District 1 contains nearly all of both Wilmington and Dover.