2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Turnout tends to be higher in countries not polluted by Murdoch trash

Would be valid for France. Well, big elections.

[minionofmidas]

85 percent turnout? Is that a joke?

Not seen since the eighties. Not happening this year. 75% was 2005's, was the worst ever, and is approximately what to expect this year. If we're lucky.

[Tender Branson]

A new Forsa poll is out, conducted the day after the debate (Monday):

CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 12%
Greens: 11%
Left: 10%
Others: 6%

Black-Yellow: 49%
Red-Red-Green: 45%

There's also a new Baden-Württemberg poll by Infratest dimap for the federal elections:



How is CDU/CSU getting 37% in ALL of Germany if they are at only 34% in BW ? In Bavaria they are certainly losing votes as well compared with 2005, so something is very wrong here.

[Tender Branson]

What also makes me wondering about this new local poll is the strength of coalitions:

Black-Yellow: 52% (2005: 51%)
Red-Red-Green: 44% (2005: 45%)

Nationwide:

Black-Yellow: 49% (2005: 45%)
Red-Red-Green: 45% (2005: 51%)

Red-Red-Green loses only 1% compared with 2005 in BW, but 6% nationally. Why ?

Or is it just a local issue, because Gov. Öttinger is really unpopular right now ?

[Tender Branson]

2 new Infratest dimap polls for the Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg state elections:

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully Infratest dimap comes out with new Bavaria, Lower Saxony and NRW polls soon ...

Would be interesting to see trends there, because half of Germany lives in these 3 states.

[Tender Branson]

New Rheinland-Pfalz poll by Infratest dimap (conducted by 3/4 BEFORE the Merkel-Steinmeier debate on Sunday) for the 2011 state elections:

CDU: 35% (+2)
SPD: 33% (-13)
FDP: 13% (+5)
Greens: 7% (+2)
Left: 7% (+4)
Others: 5% (-1)

And for the federal elections:

CDU: 39% (+2)
SPD: 28% (-7)
FDP: 14% (+2)
Greens: 8% (+1)
Left: 7% (+1)
Others: 4% (nc)

Merkel (CDU): 59%
Steinmeier (SPD): 28%

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Emnid poll:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 13%
Left: 12%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Red-Red-Green: 48%
Black-Yellow: 48%

Latest Bavaria federal elections poll by GMS for Sat 1:

CSU: 46% (-3)
SPD: 17% (-9)
FDP: 14% (+4)
Greens: 12% (+4)
Left: 5% (+2)
Others: 6% (+2)

[Tender Branson]

I should also note that GMS (and all other polls) had the CSU at 48% in the final days before the 2008 state elections, but they ended up with only 43% on election day. Forsa even had them at 50% ...

[Tender Branson]

Seems like the SPD is gaining votes from the Greens and the Left, but Center-Left is not moving ahead of Center-Right so far. New Infratest-dimap poll:

CDU/CSU: 35% (nc)
SPD: 26% (+3)
FDP: 14% (nc)
Left: 11% (-1)
Greens: 10% (-2)

Black-Yellow: 49%
Red-Red-Green: 47%

[Хahar 🤔]

Please, just say Left and Right.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls from Germany

New Poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for German TV (ZDF), compared to last week

CDU/CSU   36 %  (-1)
SPD   25 %   (+2)
GREEN   10 %  (-1)
FDP   13 %  (-1)
LEFT    11 %  (n/c)

Black/Yellow (Right)   49
Red/Red/Green (Left)   46

New Poll from GMS, compared to last Poll

CDU/CSU   36 %  (-1)
SPD   25 %   (+2)
GREEN   11 %  (-2)
FDP   13 %  (n/c)
LEFT    11 %  (+2)

Black/Yellow (Right)   49
Red/Red/Green (Left)   47

The CDU/CSU- FDP have still a slight majority. A third of the voters are undecided (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen)

[minionofmidas]

New Polls from Germany

New Poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for German TV (ZDF), compared to last poll

CDU/CSU   36 %  (-1)
FDP   13 %  (-1)

Black/Yellow (Right)   49
Red/Red/Green (Left)   46

Correcting last week's outlier.

[Tender Branson]

The most interesting part of today's polls is the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, where the CDU (and therefore Black-Yellow) is literally imploding in the final weeks before the election. They once led the SPD by 14 points, which is now down to 5:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 27%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 12%
Left: 7%
SSW: 4%
Others: 4%

Red-Red-Green-Blue: 50% (35 seats)
Black-Yellow: 46% (34 seats)

Also, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF In Brandenburg:

SPD: 32%
Left: 27%
CDU: 22%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
Others: 7%

[Jens]

The most interesting part of today's polls is the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, where the CDU (and therefore Black-Yellow) is literally imploding in the final weeks before the election. They once led the SPD by 14 points, which is now down to 5:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 27%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 12%
Left: 7%
SSW: 4%
Others: 4%

Red-Red-Green-Blue: 50% (35 seats)
Black-Yellow: 46% (34 seats)

Looks like SSV is going to hold the decisive votes again. I wonder if CDU-members once more is going to attack SSV's right to sit in the landstag?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thuringia:

Bodo Ramelow (The Left) has now forfeited the minister-president position, provided that Chrisopth Matschie (SPD) does the same. Matschie (still?) refuses, but talks between The Left, SPD, and Greens will resume on monday.

Possible compromise candidates for the top job I've heard about recently: former presidential candidate Gesine Schwan (SPD) and Bundestag vice president Katrin Göring-Eckardt (Greens). Both denied it, so it might the media grasping for straws. Ramelow has basically said that he "could imagine a woman as minister-president" and now everybody tries to figure out what he meant with that.

[Tender Branson]

Forsa out with a new poll for Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 31%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 16%
Greens: 11%
Left: 6%
SSW: 5%
Others: 5%

Red-Red-Green-Blue: 48% (34 seats)
Black-Yellow: 47% (35 seats)

BTW:

According to news articles, SPD-frontrunner Stegner called PM Carstensen (CDU) a "fat, round nothing" and a "cowardly bastard" ...

[Tender Branson]

Psephos Rheinland-Pfalz federal elections poll for the newspaper "Rheinpfalz":

CDU: 35% (-2 compared with 2005 federal elections)
SPD: 30% (-5)
FDP: 16% (+4)
Greens: 9% (+2)
Left: 6% (nc)
Others: 4% (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

According to news articles, SPD-frontrunner Stegner called PM Carstensen (CDU) a "fat, round nothing" and a "cowardly bastard" ...

Everybody knows, this is the truth....

[Tender Branson]

What exactly is causing the collapse of the SH-CDU ?

Mostly the HSH-Nordbank "situation" I guess ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Are the Austrians very attentive to German elections generally speaking, I mean the average people, the average media, just a bit more than for other countries, or not more than for other countries?

[Tender Branson]

Are the Austrians very attentive to German elections generally speaking, I mean the average people, the average media, just a bit more than for other countries, or not more than for other countries?

No, it's just me ...

The average Austrian doesn`t care about German state elections ...

(Austrian media mostly focuses only on important elections in big countries for example the US, Germany, Japan, France, UK etc.) and it`s different from newspaper to newspaper. You cannot expect to find useful in-depth articles and backgrounds in a tabloid like the Kronen Zeitung, which has pictures of Republicans portraying Obama as a Nazi and below the sentence: "Obama currently has a very tough time". And a few more lines. You would have to read the left-leaning newspaper "DerStandard" (which I do) or "Die Presse" to get serious background information, even for not so important elections, like in Andorra ...)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Are the Austrians very attentive to German elections generally speaking, I mean the average people, the average media, just a bit more than for other countries, or not more than for other countries?

No, it's just me ...

The average Austrian doesn`t care about German state elections ...

(Austrian media mostly focuses only on important elections in big countries for example the US, Germany, Japan, France, UK etc.) and it`s different from newspaper to newspaper. You cannot expect to find useful in-depth articles and backgrounds in a tabloid like the Kronen Zeitung, which has pictures of Republicans portraying Obama as a Nazi and below the sentence: "Obama currently has a very tough time". And a few more lines. You would have to read the left-leaning newspaper "DerStandard" (which I do) or "Die Presse" to get serious background information, even for not so important elections, like in Andorra ...)

Thank you, and does the federal election has a particular place compared to other big countries, or not especially?

[Hans-im-Glück]

What exactly is causing the collapse of the SH-CDU ?

Mostly the HSH-Nordbank "situation" I guess ?

I'm not the specialist for Schleswig-Holstein Politics, but i heard that the HSH-Nordbank is very important and it gives more. The ugly way Carstensen broke the Coalition wasn't very nice. Many people think about it and say no to the CDU.

I don't know the polls, but i don't think that Carstensen is more popular like his opponent Stegner.

[Tender Branson]

I have to say the SH campaign posters of the CDU are relatively dull:



"P.H. Carstensen: His strength is his vicinity"

What