🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

DOMINATING

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432783939719110656

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432790798421135368

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Australia, India, Israel, Canada, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Ecuador, Colombia, most of Eastern Europe? And even the US isn't really a valid example, with Biden double digits underwater. It's rather strange to try and paint some global picture when Germany, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Spain?, and New Zealand are the only examples of such a trend, and a good number of those countries are the result of left wing parties (ie the Greens) moving right.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Another day, another two great polls. SPD massive surge now confirmed by multiple pollsters. Just a reminder: Laschet is 2-3% away from third place. Lmao.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1432678139143073795
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1432695140280328199

Ugh, I hate how the Coalition is in blue and AfD is in black on these charts.

[kaoras]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Australia, India, Israel, Canada, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Ecuador, Colombia, most of Eastern Europe? And even the US isn't really a valid example, with Biden double digits underwater. It's rather strange to try and paint some global picture when Germany, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Spain?, and New Zealand are the only examples of such a trend, and a good number of those countries are the result of left wing parties (ie the Greens) moving right.

??
I have absolutely no idea what criteria are you using, for both sides. But in any case, I think you are treating that comment way too seriously.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1432790985092829191

[Boobs]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Happy days are here again! Thank you Joe Biden!

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1432790985092829191

Wahlkreisprognose is still a highly questionable pollster with an intransparent methodology. Their results are really lopsided compared to other polls, although the Scholzmentum is visible throughout the polling landscape.

[Mike88]

Wahlkreisprognose is still a highly questionable pollster with an intransparent methodology. Their results are really lopsided compared to other polls, although the Scholzmentum is visible throughout the polling landscape.

I had a hunch about what you said about Wahlkreisprognose, but I was afraid I was confusing with Forschungsgruppe Wahle.

[OSR stands with Israel]

SPD is kinda looking like Liberals ala 2015 when seeing the polling trends

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432698869054414857


https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432700607505305602

Is there any significant (>5%) chance that Laschet somehow resigns leaving it to Söder?

Söder seems mostly taking votes from "none of these" 20%, but even 7% from Scholz.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would be even more personally humiliating than presiding over an electoral fiasco. Amongst other issues.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Australia, India, Israel, Canada, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Ecuador, Colombia, most of Eastern Europe? And even the US isn't really a valid example, with Biden double digits underwater. It's rather strange to try and paint some global picture when Germany, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Spain?, and New Zealand are the only examples of such a trend, and a good number of those countries are the result of left wing parties (ie the Greens) moving right.

??
I have absolutely no idea what criteria are you using, for both sides. But in any case, I think you are treating that comment way too seriously.

Australia -- Liberals won in 2019 unexpectedly. Not in disarray.

Canada -- Conservatives leading in polls

Colombia -- Conservative government/dominance for last 30 years

And Argentina and Spain I said were places where the right was in disarray, not places where it wasn't.

[Blair]

Can we not argue about stuff like that in this thread please? It’s just a pissing contest

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And now we have an Infratest poll out of Brandenburg (changes from last election):

SPD 29 (+11)
AfD 18 (-2)
CDU 15 (-12)
SED 11 (-6)
FDP 9 (+2)
Green 9 (+4)
Others 9 (+3)

LOL

[Jackson Lee]

Take a 👀 at this new poll, from Brandenburg (Berlin suburbs):









Wow.

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#bb

[Jackson Lee]

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The big Linke drop possibly implies some of their usual SED pensioner vote is flirting with Scholz. Not surprised, tbh.

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

Not German, but I believe Merkel had something of a personal vote.

[Jackson Lee]

The big Linke drop possibly implies some of their usual SED pensioner vote is flirting with Scholz. Not surprised, tbh.

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

Not German, but I believe Merkel had something of a personal vote.

Incredible how the Linke is still so strong in the East after 30 years.

But their voters are getting older and die. Expect the party to die too.

[DL]

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

I wonder if it might be partly that since Merkel was herself from the East (Mecklenberg-Vorpommern) she had some residual "favourite daughter" appeal in the former DDR and that now that she is gone and repalced by Laschet - a lot of the CDU votes that were just personal votes for Merkel in the east are suddenly up for grabs.

[Astatine]

The big Linke drop possibly implies some of their usual SED pensioner vote is flirting with Scholz. Not surprised, tbh.

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

Not German, but I believe Merkel had something of a personal vote.

An additional factor could be that due to the East's history, there has never been a strong affiliation towards any party (maybe apart from the SED/PDS/Linke voters), making the whole region more "swingy" or "elastic".

Merkel's background of course has bound some voters to the CDU on federal level during her time as party leader/Chancellor, but as we can see when comparing federal election result to state elections, there are lots of voters who are open to vote for another party (e.g. the Linke state/CDU federal vote in Thuringia). Although party loyalty is decreasing in the West too, the East seems to have a big chunk of swing voters.

Regarding the Brandenburg poll: It might be a minor factor, but as Scholz is running as top candidate in Brandenburg, that might give him a small home state bonus, although it is probably negligible. But home state factors don't matter here as much as in the US anyways (apart from Bavaria and Saarland maybe), in fact, there are many "carpetbagging" politicians (Johanna Wanka in Brandenburg & Lower Saxony, Scholz' wife Britta Ernst in Schleswig-Holstein & Brandenburg, Wolfgang Tiefensee in Saxony & Thuringia, Peer Steinbrück in Schleswig-Holstein & NRW etc.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if it might be partly that since Merkel was herself from the East (Mecklenberg-Vorpommern) she had some residual "favourite daughter" appeal in the former DDR and that now that she is gone and repalced by Laschet - a lot of the CDU votes that were just personal votes for Merkel in the east are suddenly up for grabs.

She grew up in northern Brandenburg, but her political base for the past three decades has been in Pomerania, yes. There's not much doubt that she is much more appealing to many voters in the East than a typical CDU establishment politician, who are quite culturally alien to most Easterners.* Her particular sort of conservatism - which does not extend much further than her own take on what we might as well call Prussianism (i.e. the belief that it is the principle duty of both the politician and the citizen to serve the state) - is also much more appealing there. It didn't really show much in the first election she led the CDU into, but then that election ended up being rather more about the then incumbent, whose own appeal to those same voters was famously strong.

_{*It isn't just the Catholicism, though that's an issue. It's also that general air of, to make a literary allusion, heavy good-fellowship.}

[DL]

Regarding the Brandenburg poll: It might be a minor factor, but as Scholz is running as top candidate in Brandenburg, that might give him a small home state bonus, although it is probably negligible.

I thought Scholz was from the west and was once mayor of Hamburg? He may be on a list in Brandenburg for purely symbolic reasons but he is not an "Ossie" in the way Merkel is/was

[President Johnson]

Regarding the Brandenburg poll: It might be a minor factor, but as Scholz is running as top candidate in Brandenburg, that might give him a small home state bonus, although it is probably negligible.

I thought Scholz was from the west and was once mayor of Hamburg? He may be on a list in Brandenburg for purely symbolic reasons but he is not an "Ossie" in the way Merkel is/was

He moved to Postdam after becoming Finance Minister. His wife Britta Ernst was already serving as Brandenburg's Education Minister at the time.

[urutzizu]

Wahl-o-mat:
https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bundestagswahl2021/app/main_app.html

I tried it also with Google translate, which works fine.

Just for clarification in Question 13 BAföG means Student grants/loans for Students who need financial assistance (which currently about 1/4 of all Students get). Question 32 deals with the recognition of Islamic Associations (such as the Ahmadiyya or DITIB) as religious organizations under public law, as Churches are currently. There is no direct equivalent to this in the US, but this would among other things give them the right to levy church tax etc. Question 33 asks whether you think that Emissions pricing should rise more steeply than planned (translate didn't like this one by me).

My Result:
SPD 66%
CDU:56%
Greens:55%
Linke:54%
FDP:48%
AFD:45%

[FrancoAgo]

My result
MLPD 74,4%
Die Linke 74,4%
Green 71,1%
DU 71,1%
Animal welfare party 71,1%
HW 70%
DKP 70%
DiB 70%

SPD 58,9%
CDU/CSU 43,3%
AfD 33,3%
FDP 31,1%