COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

This is a death rate of 1%, not .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

This is a death rate of .5%, not .005%.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

This is a death rate of .1%, not .0001%.

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

[Calthrina950]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

This is a death rate of 1%, not .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

This is a death rate of .5%, not .005%.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

This is a death rate of .1%, not .0001%.

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

I'm not sure either, but didn't the CDC justify their masking recommendations by stating that vaccinated people can accumulate as much virus in the nasal pharynx as unvaccinated people? At least, that's what Dr. Fauci said. 

[Horus]

No mask is 100% either. You seem to trust masks more than vaccines, an increasingly common position on the left that I find extremely troubling. Maybe it's because you can see a mask and not a vaccine? Really don't get it.

You really don't? Masks + vaccines is more effective than vaccines even if neither is 100%. Just like you should wear a seat belt even if you have an airbag that you can't see. I don't know about a mandate, but that's clearly the advantage in doing both, reducing risk.

When would you feel comfortable removing your mask in a public space?

And no, I absolutely don't understand why someone would trust masks more than vaccines when the latter does far, far more to protect you.

"I'm safe" is irrelevant. This isn't about protecting individuals. This is the human race vs. COVID. All of us. All our DNA, all our cells (and the other living things that can get COVID infections, too).  The more cells that are infected with COVID, the more chances it has to spread, the more chances it has to mutate into something worse for all of us.  Mutation rate is roughly proportional to the number of infected. It's about cutting down aggregate COVID numbers. Masks help do that. Vaccinations help a lot, but are non-trivial to create, distribute, and use. On this scale, the costs of masks is trivial. Anyone anywhere that there are enough cases that trace and quarantine isn't practical should be masking in public at all times. Additional measures beyond masks, vaccinations and good public hygiene awareness should be implemented on a rational cost-benefit basis, with stopping COVID (and not political PR points or entitled whining) as the primary factor.

Additional measures beyond masks, vaccines and good hygiene? Like a return to social distancing? Do you want the suicide and overdose rates to spike even more? Do you want riots? Do you want to suck all the joy out of what makes us human? My God man, this is deranged.. You and several other folks in this thread need to take a deep breath, look at the data and calm the hell down.

[DINGO Joe]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

This is a death rate of 1%, not .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

This is a death rate of .5%, not .005%.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

This is a death rate of .1%, not .0001%.

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

The only reasons for the vaccinated to take more precautions is for the benefit of the unvaccinated and for the medical professionals that have to treat them and are already maxxed out in places.  It's for society at large though the unvaxxed are primarily composed of assholes,  kids under 12 and the more marginal members of society.  I suppose you could make an argument that if you are vaxxed and have another medical issue your at risk of not getting prompt medical care if your in a high corona area.

[compucomp]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

This is a death rate of 1%, not .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

This is a death rate of .5%, not .005%.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

This is a death rate of .1%, not .0001%.

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

The only reasons for the vaccinated to take more precautions is for the benefit of the unvaccinated and for the medical professionals that have to treat them and are already maxxed out in places.  It's for society at large though the unvaxxed are primarily composed of assholes,  kids under 12 and the more marginal members of society.  I suppose you could make an argument that if you are vaxxed and have another medical issue your at risk of not getting prompt medical care if your in a high corona area.

That's just untrue. Many of us want to avoid being infected, period. Looking at all the data that has come in about Delta, it's clear that now breakthrough cases are not rare events and that the vaccine alone does not make one safe from being infected with COVID-19. You can say that breakthrough infections are no big deal since the vaccine protects strongly against severe cases, and this is a reasonable point of view, but it's insulting to present it as an absolute truth since it's fundamentally an opinion and many disagree. The comparison to the flu doesn't hold because COVID-19 (Delta in particular) have proven to be much more contagious than the flu; Walensky called it the most infectious respiratory disease she's ever seen.

[Donerail]

That's just untrue. Many of us want to avoid being infected, period. Looking at all the data that has come in about Delta, it's clear that now breakthrough cases are not rare events and that the vaccine alone does not make one safe from being infected with COVID-19. You can say that breakthrough infections are no big deal since the vaccine protects strongly against severe cases, and this is a reasonable point of view, but it's insulting to present it as an absolute truth since it's fundamentally an opinion and many disagree. The comparison to the flu doesn't hold because COVID-19 (Delta in particular) have proven to be much more contagious than the flu; Walensky called it the most infectious respiratory disease she's ever seen.

Looking at the data that have come in about Delta, "I want to avoid becoming infected" is a pipe dream

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

This is a death rate of 1%, not .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

This is a death rate of .5%, not .005%.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

This is a death rate of .1%, not .0001%.

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

The only reasons for the vaccinated to take more precautions is for the benefit of the unvaccinated and for the medical professionals that have to treat them and are already maxxed out in places.  It's for society at large though the unvaxxed are primarily composed of assholes,  kids under 12 and the more marginal members of society.  I suppose you could make an argument that if you are vaxxed and have another medical issue your at risk of not getting prompt medical care if your in a high corona area.

That's just untrue. Many of us want to avoid being infected, period. Looking at all the data that has come in about Delta, it's clear that now breakthrough cases are not rare events and that the vaccine alone does not make one safe from being infected with COVID-19. You can say that breakthrough infections are no big deal since the vaccine protects strongly against severe cases, and this is a reasonable point of view, but it's insulting to present it as an absolute truth since it's fundamentally an opinion and many disagree. The comparison to the flu doesn't hold because COVID-19 (Delta in particular) have proven to be much more contagious than the flu; Walensky called it the most infectious respiratory disease she's ever seen.

If a person wants to take extra precautions themselves, they are certainly free to do so.  But if you acknowledge that it is reasonable for a vaccinated person to view infections as no big deal, you shouldn’t be condemning them for participating in normal social activities like concerts and birthday parties.

[compucomp]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

This is a death rate of 1%, not .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

This is a death rate of .5%, not .005%.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

This is a death rate of .1%, not .0001%.

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

The only reasons for the vaccinated to take more precautions is for the benefit of the unvaccinated and for the medical professionals that have to treat them and are already maxxed out in places.  It's for society at large though the unvaxxed are primarily composed of assholes,  kids under 12 and the more marginal members of society.  I suppose you could make an argument that if you are vaxxed and have another medical issue your at risk of not getting prompt medical care if your in a high corona area.

That's just untrue. Many of us want to avoid being infected, period. Looking at all the data that has come in about Delta, it's clear that now breakthrough cases are not rare events and that the vaccine alone does not make one safe from being infected with COVID-19. You can say that breakthrough infections are no big deal since the vaccine protects strongly against severe cases, and this is a reasonable point of view, but it's insulting to present it as an absolute truth since it's fundamentally an opinion and many disagree. The comparison to the flu doesn't hold because COVID-19 (Delta in particular) have proven to be much more contagious than the flu; Walensky called it the most infectious respiratory disease she's ever seen.

If a person wants to take extra precautions themselves, they are certainly free to do so.  But if you acknowledge that it is reasonable for a vaccinated person to view infections as no big deal, you shouldn’t be condemning them for participating in normal social activities like concerts and birthday parties.

That's why I call for mask mandates and not social distancing capacity restrictions. I would make an analogy to smoking, which also involves noxious airborne particles. I don't smoke and disapprove of it, but I agree that it should be legal. There are many things like smoking that are bad for people and society in general, that people deserve to be criticized for, but which should be allowed. Just don't smoke indoors since it fouls up the air and gets everywhere, nobody complains about indoor smoking bans, right? Analogy for COVID-19 is to wear a mask indoors.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

[DabbingSanta]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

You're insane.  Seek mental help.  Seriously, there's no other way to put it.  We are all Americans, George W Bush "fan".

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

You're insane.  Seek mental help.

Anyone who opposes vaccine mandates is an enemy to the health of the American people. And this currently includes every politician on both sides of the aisle with the exception of Bill DeBlasio.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

You're insane.  Seek mental help.  Seriously, there's no other way to put it.  We are all Americans, George W Bush "fan".

Anyone who supported the attempted coup on January 6th, or who fails to recognize it as such, is not an American…nor is anyone who still supports Donald Trump after he attempted said coup.

[DabbingSanta]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

You're insane.  Seek mental help.

Anyone who opposes vaccine mandates is an enemy to the health of the American people. And this currently includes every politician on both sides of the aisle with the exception of Bill DeBlasio.

Democrats and the fake news media got America into this mess.  Mandates are just going to make it worse.  Private businesses might be able to get away with it for their employees, and it makes sense in certain settings like health care, but otherwise strong pass.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hawaii now on lockdown, or so it seems.
https://twitter.com/GovHawaii/status/1425260475256774656?s=20

[Beet]

Sigh. It looks like herd immunity may not work. It's just going to blow through the remaining unvaccinated population with a lot of breakthrough cases too.

At the end of the day I still go back to surveillance. You need to trace who's getting infected and where they've been and who they've been in contact with. You focus your vaccination campaign among high risk groups. A sledgehammer approach does not work, besides being painful and controversial. You need the scalpel. Trade blindly spraying the forest with lead in the dark of night while not hitting anything but plants and animals, for your sniper with the heat detecting sight.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hawaii now on lockdown, or so it seems.
https://twitter.com/GovHawaii/status/1425260475256774656?s=20

Is this a joke???
Why on earth would you implement something so intrusive and draconian before you even try a vaccine mandate?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Sigh. It looks like herd immunity may not work. It's just going to blow through the remaining unvaccinated population with a lot of breakthrough cases too.

Keep an eye on Rhode Island. Rhode Island has the most immunity of all the states. Cases are dropping there.

[Matty]

Great news

R(t) now below 1 in flarda, Arkansas, and Missouri

Nevada R(t) is now only 0.7!!!!

Boom!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Great news

R(t) now below 1 in flarda, Arkansas, and Missouri

Nevada R(t) is now only 0.7!!!!

Boom!

South Dakota too.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

[Horus]

Excellent.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1425522889575501825?s=19

[Inmate Trump]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

This is the man who said masks work better than vaccines.