COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. MB]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

[DabbingSanta]

Vaccines wouldn't be such a big political issue if Democrats didn't use fake science to impose authoritarian health restrictions in the first place.  It's obvious vaccines work great in preventing serious illness and death, but a lot of people are lost right now. Four years of demonizing Trump supporters, branding them as "literal terrorists" and "deplorables" has resulted in half of America literally not trusting any credible news sources.  To be fair, I don't blame them, as these same sources pushed mask mandates and lockdowns last year, and look how that turned out for everyone.

[Calthrina950]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

Mask mandates are shaping up to be an issue in next year's midterms.

[Holmes]

Vaccines wouldn't be such a big political issue if Democrats didn't use fake science to impose authoritarian health restrictions in the first place.  It's obvious vaccines work great in preventing serious illness and death, but a lot of people are lost right now. Four years of demonizing Trump supporters, branding them as "literal terrorists" and "deplorables" has resulted in half of America literally not trusting any credible news sources.  To be fair, I don't blame them, as these same sources pushed mask mandates and lockdowns last year, and look how that turned out for everyone.

It’s the blaming Dems for Republicans not getting vaccinated for me.

[DINGO Joe]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

And yet, Oregon clearly has one of the best track records in limiting deaths from Corona.

[emailking]

I assume immunity from the vaccine is weakening in time since that's the norm but it sounds like there's evidence that you could have significant immunity for at least a few years and maybe longer.

[Dr. MB]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

And yet, Oregon clearly has one of the best track records in limiting deaths from Corona.

I live in a county with over a 75% vaccination rate and several counties are around that mark as well. I can even see the justification for mask mandates in a state like Louisiana but here it makes zero sense whatsoever.

[emailking]

Today is a significant decrease in cases from last week, but Sun/Mon were significant increases so mixed bag so far this week.

[DINGO Joe]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

And yet, Oregon clearly has one of the best track records in limiting deaths from Corona.

I live in a county with over a 75% vaccination rate and several counties are around that mark as well. I can even see the justification for mask mandates in a state like Louisiana but here it makes zero sense whatsoever.

Well, there's been a substantial uptick in cases in Oregon though the high vax rate should keep deaths down (at least in the populated areas), so it does make sense especially for the rural areas and for the vaxxed it's a minor inconvenience to aid your fellow man--who, granted, you don't like anyway. 

[soundchaser]

I’m not all that upset that we’re wearing masks again in Louisiana — clearly something has to be done. I’m more angry that we’re looking at another Fall of canceled concerts and possible restaurant shutdowns. I can wear a mask inside if it means the possibility of getting my life back elsewhere, but that seems less possible with every passing day. (And I was largely an optimist a month ago.)

[DINGO Joe]

Today is a significant decrease in cases from last week, but Sun/Mon were significant increases so mixed bag so far this week.

Worldometer doesn't have anything from Florida for today so that's the difference.

[Skunk]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

Mask mandates are shaping up to be an issue in next year's midterms.

Democrats would be committing mass political suicide if they're still imposing mask mandates by November 2022.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

No mask is 100% either. You seem to trust masks more than vaccines, an increasingly common position on the left that I find extremely troubling. Maybe it's because you can see a mask and not a vaccine? Really don't get it.

You really don't? Masks + vaccines is more effective than vaccines even if neither is 100%. Just like you should wear a seat belt even if you have an airbag that you can't see. I don't know about a mandate, but that's clearly the advantage in doing both, reducing risk.

When would you feel comfortable removing your mask in a public space?

And no, I absolutely don't understand why someone would trust masks more than vaccines when the latter does far, far more to protect you.

"I'm safe" is irrelevant. This isn't about protecting individuals. This is the human race vs. COVID. All of us. All our DNA, all our cells (and the other living things that can get COVID infections, too).  The more cells that are infected with COVID, the more chances it has to spread, the more chances it has to mutate into something worse for all of us.  Mutation rate is roughly proportional to the number of infected. It's about cutting down aggregate COVID numbers. Masks help do that. Vaccinations help a lot, but are non-trivial to create, distribute, and use. On this scale, the costs of masks is trivial. Anyone anywhere that there are enough cases that trace and quarantine isn't practical should be masking in public at all times. Additional measures beyond masks, vaccinations and good public hygiene awareness should be implemented on a rational cost-benefit basis, with stopping COVID (and not political PR points or entitled whining) as the primary factor.

[DINGO Joe]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

Mask mandates are shaping up to be an issue in next year's midterms.

Democrats would be committing mass political suicide if they're still imposing mask mandates by November 2022.

If there are still mask mandates at that point, then something else horrible has happened.

[Hammy]

Today is a significant decrease in cases from last week, but Sun/Mon were significant increases so mixed bag so far this week.

Worldometer doesn't have anything from Florida for today so that's the difference.

At this point since Florida refuses to report daily, it would be easiest to use the NYT rolling average on google.

[Mr. Illini]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

Mask mandates are shaping up to be an issue in next year's midterms.

Democrats would be committing mass political suicide if they're still imposing mask mandates by November 2022.

If there are still mask mandates at that point, then something else horrible has happened.

We probably would have said the same thing about now 6 months ago, maybe even a year ago

[Calthrina950]

Kate Brown is gonna put in a new statewide mask mandate tomorrow. What an idiot.

Mask mandates are shaping up to be an issue in next year's midterms.

Democrats would be committing mass political suicide if they're still imposing mask mandates by November 2022.

I would imagine so, but given the rate at which we're going, I wouldn't be surprised if mask mandates were still commonplace a year from now. Like I've said the other day, I've become increasingly convinced that mask-wearing will never go away entirely. It's going to become a permanent facet of life for some people from now on.

[Inmate Trump]

Vaccines wouldn't be such a big political issue if Democrats didn't use fake science to impose authoritarian health restrictions in the first place.  It's obvious vaccines work great in preventing serious illness and death, but a lot of people are lost right now. Four years of demonizing Trump supporters, branding them as "literal terrorists" and "deplorables" has resulted in half of America literally not trusting any credible news sources. To be fair, I don't blame them, as these same sources pushed mask mandates and lockdowns last year, and look how that turned out for everyone.

A large gathering of your brethren just attempted a coup to overthrow American democracy, and murdered people over a lie that Donald Trump perpetrated.  Don't you dare imply that Democrats have wrongfully demonized Trump and his supporters.

Furthermore, you people didn't trust "news sources" even before Trump ran for president so the fact that Democrats rightfully warned America about Donald Trump's awfulness is not the reason that half of America doesn't trust the media.  There's a reason uneducated people voted for Donald Trump.  There's a reason racists voted for Donald Trump.  This isn't me just demonizing, this is simple truth and I'm sorry you either can't see it or refuse to see it.

[compucomp]

A new study conducted by the Mayo Clinic indicates that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has substantially reduced protection against Delta, down to 42%, while Moderna has held up better, at 76%. One can choose to take the viewpoint that breakthrough infections are nothing to worry about as long as it doesn't result in hospitalization, but it now must be acknowledged that breakthrough infections are not rare fluke events and that the vaccines do not make one safe against COVID-19 infection.

In July, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization has remained high (mRNA-1273: 81%, 95% CI: 33-96.3%; BNT162b2: 75%, 95% CI: 24-93.9%), but effectiveness against infection was lower for both vaccines (mRNA-1273: 76%, 95% CI: 58-87%; BNT162b2: 42%, 95% CI: 13-62%), with a more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2.

Here mRNA-1273 = Moderna, BNT162b2 = Pfizer/BioNTech.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v2

[Inmate Trump]

A new study conducted by the Mayo Clinic indicates that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has substantially reduced protection against Delta, down to 42%, while Moderna has held up better, at 76%. One can choose to take the viewpoint that breakthrough infections are nothing to worry about as long as it doesn't result in hospitalization, but it now must be acknowledged that breakthrough infections are not rare fluke events and that the vaccines do not make one safe against COVID-19 infection.

In July, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization has remained high (mRNA-1273: 81%, 95% CI: 33-96.3%; BNT162b2: 75%, 95% CI: 24-93.9%), but effectiveness against infection was lower for both vaccines (mRNA-1273: 76%, 95% CI: 58-87%; BNT162b2: 42%, 95% CI: 13-62%), with a more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2.

Here mRNA-1273 = Moderna, BNT162b2 = Pfizer/BioNTech.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v2

Which is why masks need to be mandated for the time being.  The vaccines are great, but their effectiveness is waning with more variants popping up.  We need more measures, besides just vaccines, to combat this virus.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With new mask mandates in various places and institutions, it's going to be very interesting to see what the compliance level is like. So far, compliance has been mighty low, according to various online posts. Even the IHME graphs seem to confirm this, though their latest data is a couple weeks old.

[Sir Mohamed]

A new study conducted by the Mayo Clinic indicates that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has substantially reduced protection against Delta, down to 42%, while Moderna has held up better, at 76%. One can choose to take the viewpoint that breakthrough infections are nothing to worry about as long as it doesn't result in hospitalization, but it now must be acknowledged that breakthrough infections are not rare fluke events and that the vaccines do not make one safe against COVID-19 infection.

In July, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization has remained high (mRNA-1273: 81%, 95% CI: 33-96.3%; BNT162b2: 75%, 95% CI: 24-93.9%), but effectiveness against infection was lower for both vaccines (mRNA-1273: 76%, 95% CI: 58-87%; BNT162b2: 42%, 95% CI: 13-62%), with a more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2.

Here mRNA-1273 = Moderna, BNT162b2 = Pfizer/BioNTech.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v2

Which is why masks need to be mandated for the time being.  The vaccines are great, but their effectiveness is waning with more variants popping up.  We need more measures, besides just vaccines, to combat this virus.

Ideally the vaccine gets a modification for new variants that make spread less likely or next to impossible. That's why the Delta variant is so bad. My understanding is that Pfizer and others are already working on the issue so we can get a modified version of the vaccine in booster shots a year and two from today.

[compucomp]

Apparently getting a third shot is now a real thing. I admit I am thinking about it myself. It is not authorized or recommended in the USA yet, but Pfizer and Moderna are recommending it (with obvious profit motive) and some other countries like Israel are moving on it.

I have heard that an easy way to get past the check is to go to another state since each state has its own database. However YMMV on this, as well as the beneficial or side effects of a third (or 4th, 5th, etc) shot.

At least 1 million people got unauthorized third booster shot

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that more than 1 million people who have received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine have gone back for an unauthorized third booster shot.

Florida is among the states reporting the highest number of people opting for a booster shot, followed by Ohio, California, Illinois and Tennessee.

The estimated 1.1 million, included in an internal CDC briefing document reviewed by ABC News, likely is an undercount because although it counts Moderna and Pfizer shot recipients it ignores people who may have received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine and got another shot.

It’s also unclear whether people who received a third shot did so under the direction of a doctor. The Food and Drug Administration hasn’t authorized a third shot to boost immunity, although there are reports of some physicians encouraging severely immunocompromised patients to do so.

Boosters for the immunocompromised may be recommended by the FDA within weeks.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/covid-delta-variant/?id=79359387

[The Free North]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now to last spring, or even to this past January. We're seeing cases go through the roof and deaths aren't moving very much.

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

The point being that Covid is very much not the flu, but if we can get people to get their shots, we can turn it into the flu. What I mean by that is we will have new variants as the flu does and perhaps need new shots each year, but doing so will reduce the risk of serous illness or death massively for the general public at which point I feel most Americans can comfortably live their lives as they did before.

[The Free North]

Honestly I know there is a lot of doom and gloom amongst some here, but compare the death rate now to last spring, or even to this past January. We're seeing cases go through the roof and deaths aren't moving very much.

Just a quick look at the numbers at the Jan peak we had a max of about 250k cases/7 days with deaths peaking at about 3k/7 days for a death rate of .01%.

Now we've got cases at 120k/7 days with deaths at 600. Even if that lags a little, we've got the death rate down by half to .005% and we know most of those are from the 1/2 of the country that is not vaccinated.

The point being that Covid is very much not the flu, but if we can get people to get their shots, we can turn it into the flu. What I mean by that is we will have new variants as the flu does and perhaps need new shots each year, but doing so will reduce the risk of serous illness or death massively for the general public at which point I feel most Americans can comfortably live their lives as they did before.

To further this point, in the 2018-19 flu season we had 35,000,000 cases and 34,000 deaths for a death rate of 0.0001%

We know that about 99%+ (The CDC said only .8% of deaths in May were from unvaccinated)  of the current deaths are from the unvaccinated so if you do some backhand math you can assume our 7 day death rate at 6 people out of 120,000 cases/7 days which in turn is a death rate of 0.00005%, less than the flu rate.

Yeah its janky and what not, but I think there is a lot of reason to be hopeful, even with this latest wave.