Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Mr. Morden]

It seems quiet here too.

26 pages of quiet...

[Boston Bread]

Wait, Sanders went up even more in Alaska??

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

Can you report back on their reactions when Hillary clinches the nomination?

They think Clinton is going to lose New York lol because

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[IceSpear]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

Where are you getting the after tonight totals? 538 had him down 296 before tonight.

I meant to have him net 60, running 40 over their expectation of him netting 20, clearly I did it wrong, disregard

Yeah, I think you might have been overcomplicating it. 538 says he "should" be -45 after tonight, instead he'll be -235 (assuming he nets 60.)

Of course, 538 isn't exactly gospel. But there's also no way a realistic "Sanders path" would've had him trailing by hundreds of delegates at this point.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Wait, Sanders went up even more in Alaska??

Not sure how, but he did.

[Gass3268]

So are we going to get the 7% out of Washington?

[Boston Bread]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

[cinyc]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

It's probably based on the Google Docs spreadsheet that is aggregating Twitter results.  It's not really 104 of 107 precincts, though, as some results are by House District instead of precinct.  Clinton likely won more than 1 precinct in each House District to win the whole district.  Somewhere around 98 of 107 is probably more accurate.

[Boston Bread]

Whatcom came in! 81-19 Sanders

[Wells]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

Don't worry, Clinton will win the rest.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

So are we going to get the 7% out of Washington?

We got Whatcom County, so at least the map is all green unlike Utah where we still don't know three counties.

[politicallefty]

For the anti-caucus crowd, if you got your way and caucuses were done away with, would you make an exception for Iowa?  There is a lot of tradition there, and they do a good job managing it.

Absolutely not, particularly because I don't think Iowa or New Hampshire should go first. Those states should not have a stranglehold on the nominating process anymore. Ideally, I think both parties should work together to find a new nominating process. (If anything, I wouldn't mind invoking a penalty that puts those two states at the very back of the line for once.) Eliminating caucuses can be done unilaterally by one party. Considering their swing state status, I think both parties will have to act on IA and NH together, not just one party acting on its own.

[Shadows]

Problem is King's in Hilldawg's best county so she will gain a bit, not enough to make a big difference!

Anyways how much time left for Alaska results?

[catographer]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

It's probably based on the Google Docs spreadsheet that is aggregating Twitter results.  It's not really 104 of 107 precincts, though, as some results are by House District instead of precinct.  Clinton likely won more than 1 precinct in each House District to win the whole district.  Somewhere around 98 of 107 is probably more accurate.

That spreadsheet has Clinton down 81-19 in Washington. She's down 72-27 with 90% reporting; that spreadsheet is BS

[The Other Castro]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

It's probably based on the Google Docs spreadsheet that is aggregating Twitter results.  It's not really 104 of 107 precincts, though, as some results are by House District instead of precinct.  Clinton likely won more than 1 precinct in each House District to win the whole district.  Somewhere around 98 of 107 is probably more accurate.

I think 18 listed as precincts are actually entire districts, so that probably brings it from 107 to around 180 precincts reporting.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

96% reporting in Washington.

72.6 to 27.2

[Xing]

Problem is King's in Hilldawg's best county so she will gain a bit, not enough to make a big difference!

Anyways how much time left for Alaska results?

You mean Hawaii's results? Probably another hour or so.

Also, Sanders has been climbing in King, so I don't think he's going to dip below 72%, at this point.

[RaphaelDLG]

For the anti-caucus crowd, if you got your way and caucuses were done away with, would you make an exception for Iowa?  There is a lot of tradition there, and they do a good job managing it.

Uh, what?!?  Did you follow them this year?!?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Bernie takes 80.5% in Whatcom County, up from Obama's 75%.  Damn. 

[cinyc]

That spreadsheet has Clinton down 81-19 in Washington. She's down 72-27 with 90% reporting; that spreadsheet is BS

It's based on partial, self-reported results reported on Twitter, which could have a pro-Sanders bias.  Not every Washington caucus location results were reported on Twitter.

[catographer]

That spreadsheet has Clinton down 81-19 in Washington. She's down 72-27 with 90% reporting; that spreadsheet is BS

It's based on partial, self-reported results reported on Twitter, which could have a pro-Sanders bias.  Not every Washington caucus location results were reported on Twitter.

The internet has a pro-Sanders bias in general.

[The Other Castro]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

It's probably based on the Google Docs spreadsheet that is aggregating Twitter results.  It's not really 104 of 107 precincts, though, as some results are by House District instead of precinct.  Clinton likely won more than 1 precinct in each House District to win the whole district.  Somewhere around 98 of 107 is probably more accurate.

That spreadsheet has Clinton down 81-19 in Washington. She's down 72-27 with 90% reporting; that spreadsheet is BS

Most of the reporting is probably being done by Redditors, who are more likely Sanders supporters. Very pro-Clinton precincts might not have many young people or Redditors there and thus wouldn't have someone to report the numbers, making the results biased towards Sanders by omission.

[Shadows]

Problem is King's in Hilldawg's best county so she will gain a bit, not enough to make a big difference!

Anyways how much time left for Alaska results?

You mean Hawaii's results? Probably another hour or so.

Also, Sanders has been climbing in King, so I don't think he's going to dip below 72%, at this point.

Yea Hawaii, He won't fall below 72% I know that. Seattle could have done better honestly - The entire state gave Bernie 75-80%. And likewise the google sheet showed - Seattle will have more people so a 66% there would drag it down & we got fewer results from Seattle.

Great result none-the-less. NH looks more n more like a bad performance now!

[izixs]

For the anti-caucus crowd, if you got your way and caucuses were done away with, would you make an exception for Iowa?  There is a lot of tradition there, and they do a good job managing it.

Absolutely not, particularly because I don't think Iowa or New Hampshire should go first. Those states should not have a stranglehold on the nominating process anymore. Ideally, I think both parties should work together to find a new nominating process. (If anything, I wouldn't mind invoking a penalty that puts those two states at the very back of the line for once.) Eliminating caucuses can be done unilaterally by one party. Considering their swing state status, I think both parties will have to act on IA and NH together, not just one party acting on its own.

I'd hope that if the parties work together to fix the nomination process they'd move to some sort of national primary or a rigid system of state regions (either a whole region goes at once, or one state from each goes for each primary day). If a national primary, do it either as a preference vote thing (vote for all candidates you find acceptable, the one with the most votes wins) or a two round system where all but the top two finishers after the first round compete in the second vote. Eliminate delegates other than for handling party processes like platform and writing the party rules and such, removing them from the presidential selection process entirely. And most easy to do, no more super delegates and no more caucuses.

[Shadows]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

It's probably based on the Google Docs spreadsheet that is aggregating Twitter results.  It's not really 104 of 107 precincts, though, as some results are by House District instead of precinct.  Clinton likely won more than 1 precinct in each House District to win the whole district.  Somewhere around 98 of 107 is probably more accurate.

That spreadsheet has Clinton down 81-19 in Washington. She's down 72-27 with 90% reporting; that spreadsheet is BS

Most of the reporting is probably being done by Redditors, who are more likely Sanders supporters. Very pro-Clinton precincts might not have many young people or Redditors there and thus wouldn't have someone to report the numbers, making the results biased towards Sanders by omission.

Those are obvious issues - That will definitely happen. But few Seattle precincts were reported where Hilldawg did well - Sanders did get 75-80% in most of the state though!