Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Boston Bread]

I'm gonna laugh when Clinton ends up squeaking out a win in Hawaii 51-49.

You have a lot of money to be made on Predictit before the market closes then.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Come on, Whatcom!

[IceSpear]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

[The Other Castro]

The google doc spreadsheet numbers have been pretty legit so far, especially in Washington earlier today. Updated numbers from that so far in Hawaii:

Sanders - 5127 (65.26%)
Clinton - 2729 (34.74%)

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Hillary's much stronger on Oahu than on the other islands, it seems.

Kucinich did well in Hawaii back in 2004; he won Maui County (Maui, Molokai, and Lanai islands).

[Joe Biden 2020]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

You see, Trump is not the only off-color campaign in the race.  Other candidates have questionable supporters, too.

[IceSpear]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

Can you report back on their reactions when Hillary clinches the nomination?

[Oak Hills]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

You see, Trump is not the only off-color campaign in the race.  Other candidates have questionable supporters, too.

All campaigns have "questionable" supporters. The difference is that with Trump it is the candidate himself.

[Landslide Lyndon]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

You see, Trump is not the only off-color campaign in the race.  Other candidates have questionable supporters, too.

TRUMP supporters and Berniebots are very much alike.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That would be 1am ET.

[Adam Griffin]

Are we ever going to be able to get a geographic breakdown of Alaska?

No

Yes

[RaphaelDLG]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

[Mr. Morden]

More Hawaii (not sure if this has already been mentioned):

[The Other Castro]

We could post idiotic tweets from supporters of any candidate about any other candidate, but most of us do not because it's a stupid thing to do. Please try to relax Lyndon. There are youngsters around and that's not very PG-13 language.

[RaphaelDLG]

Wait, did my respectful post that had no profane language in it just get deleted?!?

[The Other Castro]

Those numbers match the spreadsheet I'm looking at Morden. Speaking of which, here's updated numbers:

Sanders - 6970 (67.37%)
Clinton - 3376 (32.63%)

I'm guessing this is approaching 1/2 of the precincts.

[cinyc]

More Hawaii (not sure if this has already been mentioned):

House District 5 is along the southwestern Kona Coast of the big island of Hawaii, from South Point (the southernmost point of the 50 U.S. states) to just south of downtown Kailua-Kona.  Assuming they haven't changed the precinct numbers from 2014, the highest precinct numbers are closest to Kailua-Kona.

[Shadows]

Clinton News Network (CNN) is now saying Hawaii is a white state - How dumb is this? The white population in Hawaii is not even 25%, mostly Asians & some native hawaii people & mixed race (small black population).

The stupidity of CNN to justify Hillary is hilarious.

[IceSpear]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

Where are you getting the after tonight totals? 538 had him down 296 before tonight.

[RaphaelDLG]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

Where are you getting the after tonight totals? 538 had him down 296 before tonight.

I meant to have him net 60, running 40 over their expectation of him netting 20, clearly I did it wrong, disregard

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

You see, Trump is not the only off-color campaign in the race.  Other candidates have questionable supporters, too.

The sniveling coward remains the only candidate advocating violence. Among his many other flaws.

[Shadows]

Alaska 82% Sanders finally. Hilldawg was so close to being unviable!

[yourelection]

It doessn't seem that the caucuses tonight are getting much attention. Watching CNN and the usual coverage is missing. It seems quiet here too.

[The Other Castro]

It doessn't seem that the caucuses tonight are getting much attention. Watching CNN and the usual coverage is missing. It seems quiet here too.

They were doing quite a bit of coverage earlier, but now they're on break before Hawaii comes in.

[yourelection]

It doessn't seem that the caucuses tonight are getting much attention. Watching CNN and the usual coverage is missing. It seems quiet here too.

They were doing quite a bit of coverage earlier, but now they're on break before Hawaii comes in.

Oh I seem to have tuned in too late for the WA, AK coverage :-(