NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Ferguson97]

Democrats maintain their majority but Republicans have a net gain of seats.

[Ferguson97]

Local control is a huge thing in New Jersey, particularly in Bergen County. People are pretty hostile to things like municipal consolidation (even though it's an obviously good idea), so I wouldn't necessarily take a poll showing support for "parental control of schools" to mean that the GOP's messaging on this issue is effective. This is also one of those issues where how you present it is going to matter a lot. Someone who is not very tuned-in to politics and isn't aware of all of the culture war nonsense, is probably going to just understand the question to mean what it means. It doesn't necessarily mean they're gun-ho about book bans.

[Ferguson97]

Hot take for a (Dem) upset: LD-39

[Ferguson97]

Hot take for a (Dem) upset: LD-39

I'm not seeing it. Even when the Bergen GOP nominated Bridgegate Bridget Kelly for Clerk in 2021, she still won the new LD-39 by over 4 points (while losing countywide by 9). Even last year, Jim Tedesco only won LD-39 in the County Executive race by 0.2%. Northern Bergen is clearly trending Dem, but it still has a ways to go in downballot races.

These are new districts though. The new LD-39 is somewhat more Democratic. The Democrats collectively got more primary votes than Republicans as well.

[Ferguson97]

This doesn't only apply to the New Jersey elections, but I think people shouldn't put too much stock in mail-in ballot numbers now that we're 2 years out from the pandemic.

[Ferguson97]

Polls have closed.

[Ferguson97]

A bunch of Moms for Liberty candidates got their asses handed to them. If the GOP messaging on school board stuff is resonating with voters, it sure as hell wasn’t reflected in last night’s elections.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

I don't see why. If anything, I'd expect them to lean Republican, since most provisional ballots are used by people who received mail-in ballots but didn't return them.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.

I don't see why. If anything, I'd expect them to lean Republican, since most provisional ballots are used by people who received mail-in ballots but didn't return them.

And mail-in favors Democrats.

So you might expect provisional voters, i.e., people who were sent a mail-in but actively refused to fill it out and preferred to vote in person, to favor Republicans.

Correct. The exact person you're describing are the majority of provisional voters.