2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Rs always seem to overreach in where they spend their time and resources. We saw this in 2022 with Smiley and O'Dea being the most notable examples.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like CO-03 should be on both parties' list at this point. The GOP would be insane not to try and get Boebert out after this year, because she's probably going down if she's the nominee again.

That usually happens with controversial underperforming incumbents in time. See Steve King. Also Madison Cawthorn probably would've become such an example had he not already been tossed in the primary this year.

But CO-03 isn’t as R to begin with, and has been shifting hard left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pretty sure this was a joke but on the subway this morning there was a woman yelling about how we need to send Cardi B to the Senate.

Lowkey, Cardi B would be a very engaging speaker cause of all her interjections. I’d also love to see certain Republicans get dissed on with no clue how to respond.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meanwhile Sabato actually starts WV as a flip. Honestly, I think these ratings are a bit overconfident on both sides this far out, and states like TX, PA, MN, and NV should all be bumped down a rating.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Unlikely. Dems in this district rely heavily on Hispanic voters that just don't show up in the primaries. Even though CA-22 is a seat that voted for Biden by double-digits, Rs almost always have the advantage in any sort of off election - including midterms.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's an understudied phenomenon that officially nonpartisan elections (of which the Nebraska legislature is just one example) tend to return significantly more liberal/Democratic-associated candidates than partisan elections do. Like, it's primarily for this reason that Nebraska's state government is much more moderate than it 'should' be.

Alaska is sort of like this as well. Wonder what it suggests about the electorate overall? Are there just tons of people who vote Republican "just because" even if they might align more with Dems in policy? Is the Democrat Party itself a huge turnoff?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1760043653760774557

Rich dudes might not be that bad in a cycle where the GOP might be more limited in money since they can self-fund. Is the electoral penalty for being a rich dude greater than the alternative penalty of having a less resourced campaign - hard to say.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1775554864069710251

Makes no sense to put this at tossup before moving Montana to Lean R, moving Ohio to Lean R, or even moving Michigan to tossup frankly.

Especially since literally notable nothing changed in the race in a way that would hurt Rosen. Bidens poll numbers have been improving, he did fine the NV primary, her fundraising has been strong, and she's continued to lead in polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Oops my bad; still had the right district in my mind just wrong label.

Will be interesting to see if Biden can eke out a victory in the real IA-03 this year though. In 2020, Trump carried the district by the skin of his teeth, but the district contains basically all of Ds Moones and its suburbs which is one of the few parts of the state where Dems haven’t fallen off a cliff and in some cases seen gains in recent years.