Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't think dems understand how crucial this is. Molinari is going to be very difficult to beat once he gets in

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/TKensingtonian/status/1562270607210848256

fake

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/TKensingtonian/status/1562270607210848256

I feel bad for all the people I see on twitter falling for this lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 57,131 (52.78%)
MOLINARO: 51,110 (47.22%)

DELLA PIA: 30,348 (50.06%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 30,273 (49.94%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TKensingtonian/status/1562270607210848256

This is NOT the real Wasserman!

[prag_prog]

Ryan can kinda win even if Molinaro outperforms Trump's numbers in all the counties by 2+ points...for that to happen, you just need to have higher turnout % in Biden counties than the counties that Trump won

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine Columbia has a bit more to report, they're only at 10K votes now, and they had 34.5K in 2020 in that area. Would only be 29% turnout which would be surprising.

[wbrocks67]

Ryan can kinda win even if Molinaro outperforms Trump's numbers in all the counties by 2+ points...for that to happen, you just need to have higher turnout % in Biden counties than the counties that Trump won

Seems to be the case. A lot of the redder counties that seem done or close to it (Greene, Broom, Scholarie), they're only at about 29-32%. Ulster meanwhile is at 37%+

[Tintrlvr]

I also wonder about affidavit ballots, which also won't be counted until later. Because of New York's new ballot rules, you can no longer (as of this year, and different from 2020 and 2021 so it will likely catch some people) cast a regular ballot in person and override your absentee ballot request. If you requested an absentee ballot and then try to vote in person, you have to cast an affidavit ballot, but it will still be counted if your absentee ballot is never returned. I imagine that group will also be solidly Democratic given how absentee ballots have skewed, though harder to be certain, but there may be more than usual because of the rules change.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R wave is no more

[Minnesota Mike]

Sorry about that. I feel stupid falling for a fake twitter account.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562270469486772224

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Such a weird feeling to be on the other side of polling misses for the first time since, like, 2017, but really 2012

It really shouldn’t be surprising.  I’ve been saying ever since Dobbs that polls will likely underestimate Dems this year.  Polling misses are usually due to energized low-propensity voters.  In 2016 and 2020 this was WWC Trumpers.  But in 2022 this will be largely Zoomer women.

Nonsense. Women are more likely to vote than men.
The miss was likely because it was a special election and turnout was terrible. The firm probably used a medium turnout model

[GALeftist]

Ulster looking pretty darn good for Ryan thus far. Subject to change still but...

[prag_prog]

Ryan can kinda win even if Molinaro outperforms Trump's numbers in all the counties by 2+ points...for that to happen, you just need to have higher turnout % in Biden counties than the counties that Trump won

Seems to be the case. A lot of the redder counties that seem done or close to it (Greene, Broom, Scholarie), they're only at about 29-32%. Ulster meanwhile is at 37%+

yep. The turnout when compared to 2020 hasn't been uniform in all the counties. There seems to be significant differences in turnout % in these big counties vs the smaller ones

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 57,131 (52.78%)
MOLINARO: 51,110 (47.22%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 31,150 (50.45%)
DELLA PIA: 30,592 (49.55%)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also one interesting note is that based on 2020 Pres, NY-19 would've been very very close to the median House seat. This is why I don't think the House is *completely* gone for Dems.

[Holmes]

Regardless, New York’s election results reporting is so horrible. Wow.

[wbrocks67]

Ulster up to 37.5K turnout and Ryan up to +26 again.

40% of 2020 turnout there, something we don't seem to see in any of the red areas

[roxas11]

Well, at this point the biggest loser of this election is Data for Progress for putting out a poll showing Molinaro win by 8 points lol

[Gass3268]

Dutchess was a 50-50 result.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562272464704573440?s=20&t=KUtiBCr6...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Also one interesting note is that based on 2020 Pres, NY-19 would've been very very close to the median House seat. This is why I don't think the House is *completely* gone for Dems.

It is. This is a Blue mirage folks. In November lots of rs that only vote in November elections will show up

[prag_prog]

Ulster's turnout so far is almost 38% of 2020 election (few precints yet to be reported) whereas turnout in Greene (fully reported) was only 33% of 2020 election. These are some big differences in turnout % and these things matter.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Also one interesting note is that based on 2020 Pres, NY-19 would've been very very close to the median House seat. This is why I don't think the House is *completely* gone for Dems.

I know. It's funny that the R Cope clowns' wishful thinking is just a neutral environment or only R+1/2

RYAN: 57,131 (52.78%)
MOLINARO: 51,110 (47.22%)

SEMPOLINSKI: 32,241 (51.11%)
DELLA PIA: 30,844 (48.89%)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Regardless, New York’s election results reporting is so horrible. Wow.

This does seem to be better than 2020 which was an absolute disaster. The early votes took forever to county and even like 2 days after the election NY was only like Biden + 15 iirc.