2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Donerail]

I was skimming the vote totals from Florida and it seems like a good majority of NPA early votes are from Democratic leaning counties, definitely over 50%.  

That's also where a majority of Floridians live, is the problem. Half the state's population lives in the 9 largest Dem-leaning counties.

[Crumpets]

Quick thoughts on Billings: of all the cities in Montana, it's easily the one most influenced by the oil and gas sector, hence why it has been the slowest to trend D despite being also the largest city in the state. In recent years, a lot of young people in the region have been attracted to Montana's cities because they're pretty much the only place in the west where you can live in a semi-major city with sports, concerts, and culture on a monthly rent of $650. I think Yellowstone County will certainly swing D, but if fears over Biden's oil comments turn out to be real, it probably won't outright flip to him. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Bullock-Trump County either if Bullock has a good night.

[Tender Branson]

Pro-tip for NOVA Green:

If you save your charts/pictures as .png instead of .jpeg, the red shades will not be so blurry on your posted images.

Thx Tender!

I Remember back in the days when I spent a bunch of time working with AutoCAD files to convert to Image files, and one of the "CAD Jockeys" who was at that point directly reported to me kept pressing the .png vs .jpeg file format for certain image resolution when trying to consolidate multiple floorplans of all places from the Factory Floors to the Office Spaces....

Gotten lazy in my "Old Man Years", and although I haven't really played around with them on Atlas much, will def take this as a "Pro-Tip".

You Kool with me Tender, whatever everyone else says, plus spent enough time in Germany (As well as Europe) back in the '90s, so perhaps maybe understand some of your perspectives in means that most Atlas American Citizen avatars do not.

My apologies for not even mentioning yet another brutal Mass Murder at the hands of what is likely either a White Supremacist Neo Nazi or an Islamist Radical Terrorist in Vienna just a few hours ago...

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/vienna-terror-attack-nov-2-live-updates/index.html

Regardless of whatever the motives of the perpetrators, the overwhelming majority of Americans stand in Solidarity with the people of Austria, regardless of partisan affiliation and since it appears to be an assault against a Jewish Synagogue (With my older Sister being Jewish and having seen her neighborhoods assaulted and shot up by Neo-Nazis back in OR in the Mid '90s), I will post an image which will likely get me yet another 3-4 reported posts from those who do not understand.

Those who do not understand the concept of self-defense against extreme violence practiced against our communities obviously have never experienced the violence at the hands of Neo-Nazi and White Supremacist Political Formations....

Regardless of whomever committed these horrible acts, either at the hands of White Supremacist or ISIS Terrorist Political Formations, we reject those actions and will continue to support the Force of the State to bring those Domestic Terrorist Organizations to Heel...

The latter, it was an Islamist Terrorist.

And thanks.

[Logical]

101 million people have now voted, according to the JMC guy.

It's amazing how Alabama and Mississippi manages to be in the bottom of almost every chart.

[Tender Branson]

101 million people have now voted, according to the JMC guy.

Must be noted that the JMC guy uses 136 million as the number for total ballots cast in 2016, but that is wrong.

There were 139 million total ballots cast.

[Tender Branson]

It's amazing how Alabama and Mississippi manages to be in the bottom of almost every chart.

This can be explained by the big racial divide within the DEM Party in AL/MS and the more hipster Western/NE states.

In AL/MS, almost all Democrats are Black. They don't vote by post, fearing for their votes.

In CO, OR or elsewhere almost all White Democrats vote by mail this year.

[DINGO Joe]

It's amazing how Alabama and Mississippi manages to be in the bottom of almost every chart.

This can be explained by the big racial divide within the DEM Party in AL/MS and the more hipster Western/NE states.

In AL/MS, almost all Democrats are Black. They don't vote by post, fearing for their votes.

In CO, OR or elsewhere almost all White Democrats vote by mail this year.

It can be explained by those states making early voting harder than in other states

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323459988321456129

I mean, Bob Casey won Allegheny by 33 in 2018 so that doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility. This is why I'm bullish on Biden winning PA. All he has to do is even just bump Hillary's margin like 3-4 pts minimum in places like Allegheny and the suburbs, and he's got PA pretty much.

[Non Swing Voter]

Charlie Cook was on MSNBC and seemed very confident about Biden winning.

How confident were they back in 2016?

I would also like to know. Anyone have any idea?

He literally was on there saying "stick a fork in it" the race is done for Hillary in 2016...

Meaning Hillary was going to win? Or "Stick a fork in it" because Hillary is screwed?

Meaning Hillary was going to win.  I do understand that things are different this year but some of these guys would be more humble if they premised their bold assertions with the fact that they got it totally wrong in 2016.  Then explained why this time they're right.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1323600870702022656

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1323604401416790022

think liberal areas spent all their votes before Election Day?  2.1% of this highly Dem city just voted in the first hour despite already having the highest turnout in the state prior to Election Day.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323616461689073665

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323617184594251777

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323616461689073665

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323617184594251777

I know a substantial Republican lead was built in on E Day, but more than 2:1?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh my god people. No one post any polling numbers until the afternoon for everyone’s collective sanity 🙄

[Non Swing Voter]

Old people voting early in the morning... 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Charlie Cook was on MSNBC and seemed very confident about Biden winning.

How confident were they back in 2016?

I got to attend a (remote) talk by Charlie shortly before the 2016 elections.  At the time he thought Hillary was in the lead (who didn't?) but Trump was within striking range.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Republicans vote before work. Democrats vote after work. No idea why, but that’s how it’s been for a long time.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Closing the loop, adding the VBM stragglers from yesterday.   At the end of EV, Reps and NPAs increase their turnout by 11pts from 2016.  Dems increase by 13pts. and are closing in on total 2016 turnout.





County level data is almost off the charts for Dems....time to close strong!

[ExSky]

Republicans vote before work. Democrats vote after work. No idea why, but that’s how it’s been for a long time.

Lot of retirees? (which might be shifting Biden this cycle actually)

[Virginiá]

100 pages and basically 100 million early votes. How fitting!

I think a bunch of pages disappeared a few days ago as well. Not sure what happened.

I split the thread a few days ago because it had gotten to something like 150+ pages. The original is here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.0

[Sir Tiki]

Our absentee ballots were counted!

[Non Swing Voter]

does anyone know where to find the hourly Election Day vote totals for Florida?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1323625707570909187

[wbrocks67]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1323625707570909187

20,000 new registered voters in Detroit seems meaningful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

One of the key points of the theory that Biden will do well in Florida is that he's made strong inroads among seniors.  This group is majority Republican in registration, so *if* Biden is doing well among Florida seniors then he will necessarily be pulling a fair share of Republican crossover votes.

If someone doesn't want to believe Biden is doing well with seniors, fine.  But if they do believe it, they need to not freak out about turnout numbers by registration.