International COVID-19 Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Great news. Australia is nearly ready to get back to normal programming.



Australia 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 3,491 – April 3
Recoveries added to curve – 275

Australia and NZ are now talking about elimination. It appears that the virus is nearing that point in New Zealand, South Australia, Western Australia, ACT and NT.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is saying that restrictions will be eased if people download the COVID-19 tracking app which tracks people's locations in relation to known positive cases.

But winter is coming, so no one knows what is going to happen in the colder weather. Our two coldest states have just entered much lower temperatures and are not shaking the virus yet, so there is a chance this could come back.

In terms of countries entering the first quarter of this curve (sub-exponential growth), we have Russia, Brazil, Peru, India and Mexico.

Singapore and Japan have calmed from their 'late' peaks and are on the decline in Active case numbers.

[Meclazine for Israel]

ALL stores are open again today in 🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹.

Look at that line of people outside a Graz IKEA:

Plebs who don't know how to use the internet...

Can we have Tender's Live Video Austrian Crime Megathread?

You knows what the fans want.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

UK still coming down with the recoveries added less than those actually predicted by about 6,000.


France



France 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 74,500

France well and truly over the main event.


Germany



Germany 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 12,900

Germany looking good. Reporting time-accurate recoveries.


Spain



Spain 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 36,500

Spain may have another slight peak developing depending on what happens over the next week.


Italy



Italy 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy has continued to decline at a slower rate.


USA



USA 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 462,000

USA on it's way down or on it's way back up thanks to increased testing? We will find out over the next week. I may have to broaden the predicted slope somewhat as this downward path continues slower than expected. This will push out the recovery time of the US for removing lockdowns.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Things are definitely slowing down ...

Only 20-40 more cases on a daily basis and just 2 deaths yesterday.

Deaths once were in the 15-30 range per day.

Same here. 793 new cases reported from yesterday. Another drop of over 100. Last week, we had mostly over 2,000 additional cases a day. The number of active cases has dropped more than half within two weeks (from 70,000+ to below 30,000).

True, but Germany could have prevented maybe a thousand or so deaths if it acted quicker and more consequently like Austria.

We need to give some credit to Kurz and the Greens on this.

No one says that we saved lives by acting appropriately and in a timely manner.

The US, Italy, UK, France or Germany all get basted.

This was overall a phenomenal response from the Germans looking at their low infection and death rates.

You have to admire the positives and not dwell on the negatives.

It's in your head, you just dont see it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

There was a COVID-19 case in France in December after retesting samples.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france/after-retesting-samples-french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-from-december-idUSKBN22G20L

Does this change the source of the Italian case zero?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Typical Finnish bureaucracy: while several European countries have mandated the use of masks in public, the Finnish government has decided to order an investigation into whether masks are beneficial. It will take two months, and no advice will be given to the public on masks before its completion.

Almost no one is wearing masks here currently. I've worn them in public transport, but it's kinda hard to be the only one wearing a mask.

As a German, it's nice to see that we for once are not the one with the stupidest bureaucratic measures.

The Germans have been the most organised. You can see it clearly if you look through their data

Australia has had the most success but that was partly luck and getting travel restrictions in early because we copied the US.

Even though we had flights direct from Wuhan in January, most of our virus cases came from Italy and Iran, UK amd USA. And about 4 cruise ships made up about 40% of our cases.

But given we were coming out of summer, the virus never caught on in the hot states with minimal community.

South Australia is 10 days without a case and Western Australia is 6 days without a single new case.

I have a theory that people who live in polluted cities have poorer outcomes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest predictions for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 109,000

UK has an alarming stat in that it does not report recoveries. Something about the UK data makes me think they were not prepared medically for this at all. The UK dataset is the hardest to model which generally means it has some bad data.


France



France 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

France on it's way down the curve.


Germany



Germany 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 11,300

Germany looking really good.


Spain



Spain 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 36,000

Spain may have another slight bump, but nothing major recorded yet.


Italy



Italy 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy continues to decline.


USA



USA 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 492,000

USA at a point where things could go up or down. At the moment, I don't see any resurgence, but an increase an testing is purported to cause an increase in new cases.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

Overall, great news for Europe. UK and USA not out of the clear yet. One of the big success stories now is Sweden with a turnaround over the last fortnight. Notice the media not criticizing Sweden anymore?



One of the real tragedies of the Corona-virus is the false focus of the "media-eye" on things that simply don't make any scientific sense.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest predictions for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 117,000

UK has a slight increase coming. It's been building slowly for a few weeks, but I have few more recoveries able to add which reflects underlying growth in cases somewhere.  One thing is for certain, it is fast becoming the biggest case centre in that part of the world. I would not be surprised if it has a second peak above the first one.


France



France 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 77,500

France on it's way down.


Germany



Germany 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,400

Germany looking really good. I simply add the data, and it plots immediately on par.


Spain



Spain 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 34,000

Spain continues to decline slowly.


Italy



Italy 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 81,000

Italy continues to decline. They are starting to report recoveries with 14,000 recoveries add as a catch up in the last three days.


USA



USA 8 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 570,000

USA has a weekly rhythm of peaks on Thursday-Friday and lows on Sunday-Monday which are gradually losing steam. In two weeks time, the numbers in the USA should start to drop more substantially, but over the last fortnight, numbers have been fairly flat.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Back to normal in Austria

I wouldn't say "normal", but aside from the mask-wearing in supermarkets and a few other things like tourism and short work, it's not much of a difference compared to before.

Mothers Day shopping in Joondalup shopping centre yesterday:



Only one person scratching their head.

Learning we have 6-7 Active Cases in our state with 99% recovery, people obviously up to their teeth with this virus and have finally snatched it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Brazil have few choices with their strategy towards dealing with the Corona-virus.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-08/coronavirus-warnings-brazil-economy-on-verge-of-collapse/12227298

The Government will argue that lockdowns would be more devastating to the population than the virus itself.

They may have backed themselves into a corner and are looking at a trajectory towards 1M cases at the present rate of growth.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest predictions for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 126,500

UK still looking at the larger numbers than initially thought because of a lower rate of decline. Need to keep an eye on where things go over the next week.


France



France 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,200

France on it's way down.


Germany



Germany 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,500

Germany on the path to 10% of maximum Active Cases in the next week.


Spain



Spain 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 30,000

Spain continues to decline at a slower rate.


Italy



Italy 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

Italy starting to report more recoveries to catch up.


USA



USA 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 596,000

USA has continued to decrease in number of Active Cases, albeit in a lump manner. 10% of the maximum Active Cases (494,000) predicted to occur around Jun 10.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

because it's not a random 15%, but a 15% that can be expected to be on average more susceptible and more exposed than the remaining 85%.

I am not sure this is true. The people getting infected can be healthy and are travelling on planes, trains, cars and cruise ships. They could not be more random.

The only predictable part you are referencing are the staff at grocery stores, hospitals etc.

It really depends on the path to infection. If staff are spreading it to people, then you are correct.

If surface infection is a major cause, then it does not matter. I suspect, it can spread in indoor environments with the aid of air conditioning.

We just have to wait and see what the research says in 2 years time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Starting to get states in Australia with zero cases.



Moving towards eradication with no cases at all in South Australia and ACT.



Western Australia has no hospital cases.

Some predictive graphs for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 148,500

UK has now stopped reporting Active cases altogether. No recovery data. No active cases. This suggests a lack of a pre-planned coordinated response. The data is most likely so bad and confused that they have decided not to release it at all. They have some of the top scientists in the world in the area, but the medical system has been flooded by the looks.


France



France 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,000

France on it's way down still.


Germany



Germany 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 9,500

Germany easily the most organised country in Europe dealing with the response with the corresponding lowest death rate. The data was clean start to finish.


Spain



Spain 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 31,500

Spain on it's way clear of the virus in June.


Italy



Italy 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 67,200

Italy nearly clear of the main event. Recoveries coming in thick and fast.


USA



USA 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 652,000

A lumpy decline due to the weekly reporting natural wavelength within the dataset. The US is declining at a slower rate than initially predicted.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes, men are more likely to be infected than women for example.

[Meclazine for Israel]

It's been two weeks since Italy began reopening (and today the second phase of the process has begun), so we should start getting a sense of whether the measures are working. Let's take a look.

Good graphs Antonio.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Predictive graphs updated for Active Cases in major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 164,500

UK has a severe lack of data reporting, so this is a bit of a guess until they get back to reporting normally. I cannot comment on their medical response, but from a purely scientific perspective of the numbers, their data has clearly had the most issues including inconsistency and error of any country during this pandemia.


France



France 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,500

France is very similar to Germany in terms of the scale of cases.


Germany



Germany 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 8,250

Germany looking good and no issues with the data. They have rounded their recoveries now rather than trying to get specific exact numbers.


Spain



Spain 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 31,500

Spain looking good.


Italy



Italy 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 67,200

Italy nearly clear of the virus by the looks. They will be having a fat time soon. First infected, and first clear by these numbers.


USA



USA 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 652,000

USA is starting to find a fairly uniform declining rate in Active Cases. In comparison to previous predictions, it looks like the USA is going to have Active Cases well into June.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Did Sweden get it right?

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/coronavirus-update-covid19-australia-european-union-nick-kyrgios/12408186

The video is doom and gloom, but i actually prefer Sweden's response. The main issue they have is that their neighbours chose a different strategy and have now put them in a bubble.

There is a lot to like about their response. It offered a lot of information for researching the virus. They will come out of it sooner. Sweden did not overwhelm their hospitals. They did not disrupt their life as much.

Australia looks better but we have not had it yet, so for that reason i would prefer the Sweden model.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Anyone watching South Africa?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Those are the steepest curves i have seen thus far.

Given that 21% of the adult population of South Africa has AIDS, this is going to get ugly.



The citizens below breeding age in the heart of this HIV epidemic who are infected with Corona Virus will be some of the very few human beings on Earth facing evolutionary pressures.

It will literally become survival of the fittest if this virus gets red hot in those areas.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Look like Australia is ready to join the party:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/asia/australia-victoria-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

Victoria had hotel quarantine for returning international travel.

Turns out the security guards who were supposed to lock down the hotel were in the rooms partying and having sex with the guests.

And then the security guards worked at different hotels and gave it all the other security guards.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Japan having a 2nd wave.

India is off to the races.

South Africa is going bezerk. It's not coming out of that population for a long time.

And Sweden heading rapidly towards 0 daily cases and hence 0 daily deaths.

Australia is now heading towards community transmission.

Remarkable how this has unfolded.

[Meclazine for Israel]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

Yes - there was a paper out recently which modelled this and got the 20% figure. It is possible a significant proportion of people have T-cells from previous viruses; countries which have had bad flu seasons recently have had lower Covid death rates.

Maybe that is why Vietnam and China deaths are ridiculously low.

We will learn the truth from good science in 5 years time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden: 0 deaths on July 31st, significant decline in cases and deaths from peak despite no lockdown or mandatory mask rules. Media is totally silent now. It really makes you think and challenge the mainstream narrative.

That is interesting. Regardless of opinion, the situation in Sweden provides objective data from a differing method or template for dealing with the virus.

Melbourne has gone in the opposite direction with the Premier announcing a "state of disaster" in Victoria.

It seems a little over the top because the US has 1,000 deaths per day and Victoria has 7.

As one of our coldest cities, Melbourne has just gone into a tight socially restrictive lockdown as they cannot control the community spread.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden immunity levels most likely around 30% of the population.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812

"...a study by the Karolinska Institute and Karolinska University Hospital recently found that about 30% of people with mild or asymptomatic COVID showed T-cell-mediated immunity to the virus, even though they tested negative for antibodies."

"This figure is [more than] twice as high as the previous antibody tests, meaning that the public immunity to COVID-19 is probably much higher than what antibody studies have suggested."

That means Sweden has around 30-40% of the population running with some form of immunity.

Even though they suffered higher rates of infection and mortality rates to begin with, it will be interesting to see if Sweden can keep those numbers down in December-January.

Winter is coming.

[Meclazine for Israel]

We are getting a second spike in Europe, but the deaths curve is no match? It's almost minimal in comparison to the 2 week trailing death curve of the first wave.

Why is that?

[Meclazine for Israel]

"Canute-like"

What does that mean?

I think there is a race of people in Indonesia called Canutes.

https://youtu.be/85ubtVs5n6A