International COVID-19 Megathread

[PSOL]

Shopping Centers started reopening yesterday in Chile as daily new cases hit a new record of 888 new infections. Piñera wants to reopen schools at some point in May.

I guess Piñera wants his approval to become even lower?

I don’t think Piñera cares at all what the people think, he’ll do whatever his handlers say to do.

[kaoras]

Shopping Centers started reopening yesterday in Chile as daily new cases hit a new record of 888 new infections. Piñera wants to reopen schools at some point in May.

I guess Piñera wants his approval to become even lower?

He recovered double digits thanks to the right rallying around him. He is at 13-24% depending on the pollster, but approval of its handling remains very negative. He has also floated the idea of canceling the constitutional plebiscite (that was postponed to October) not on health, but on economic grounds (because it adds uncertainty or something and the country will be in a big crisis)

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

UK starting to come down with the recoveries added less than those actually predicted by about 6,000.


France



France 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 69,000

France has a couple of bumps.


Germany



Germany 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 14,400

Germany remarkably follows the curve accurately and this predicts well thanks to good data collection and reporting.


Spain



Spain 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 37,500

Spain continues to decrease, albeit at a slower rate. A number of recoveries are starting to be added to the data on World-o-meters.


Italy



Italy 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy has finally started added recoveries to their data.


USA



USA 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 403,000

USA on it's way down with a spike every Thursday/Friday on the weekly stats.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a deeper look at those weekly Austrian death statistics:

We have a CPR (Central Population Register) and a CVSR (Central Vital Statistics Register), which tracks every birth, death, marriage and divorce on a weekly basis in each town.

In the first 16 calendar weeks of 2020 (until April 19), there were 28.048 deaths.

In the same 16 weeks in 2019 it was 27.165, in 2018 it was 28.822, in 2017 it was 28.527 and in 2016 it was 25.261

2016 was really low and 2019 lower than average, but 2017 and 2018 above average.

2020 so far is higher than the 4-year average 2016-19, but average when we only use 2017-19.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a deeper look at those weekly Austrian death statistics:

We have a CPR (Central Population Register) and a CVSR (Central Vital Statistics Register), which tracks every birth, death, marriage and divorce on a weekly basis in each town.

In the first 16 calendar weeks of 2020 (until April 19), there were 28.048 deaths.

In the same 16 weeks in 2019 it was 27.165, in 2018 it was 28.822, in 2017 it was 28.527 and in 2016 it was 25.261

2016 was really low and 2019 lower than average, but 2017 and 2018 above average.

2020 so far is higher than the 4-year average 2016-19, but average when we only use 2017-19.

In the 5 weeks since the March 16 lockdown, there were 8.888 deaths in Austria - up by 1.065 in the same 5 weeks during 2016-19.

That's an increase of more than 13% and each of the 5 weeks had a big increase.

But the government only announced 467 official COVID-deaths in that time.

The real number could therefore be more than twice as high ...

[Pulaski]

Experts believe we now have the ability to immediately increase capacity to 4400, and our target is 7500 ventilated intensive care beds by the end of April.

We were planning for 7500 ventilated intensive care beds by the end of April. We've ended up needing a maximum of about 40 so far.

Several of our states and territories have had no new cases for a number of days. The ACT declared itself to have 0 active cases yesterday.

"The lucky country" doesn't even begin to describe it.

[Tender Branson]

Experts believe we now have the ability to immediately increase capacity to 4400, and our target is 7500 ventilated intensive care beds by the end of April.

We were planning for 7500 ventilated intensive care beds by the end of April. We've ended up needing a maximum of about 40 so far.

Several of our states and territories have had no new cases for a number of days. The ACT declared itself to have 0 active cases yesterday.

"The lucky country" doesn't even begin to describe it.

Pretty much the same here as well.

Since yesterday, +5 deaths announced (that is the lowest daily number since the days the virus came here).

New infections are stable and people in hospitals and ICU are a third of what it once was.

Some states also report no new infections for some days, such as Carinthia or Vorarlberg and my state Salzburg only 1-3 new cases per day. Most new cases are coming from Vienna and Lower Austria these days.

I wonder if this changes if everything is opened up again this month or not ...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Two different strategies:

1. Australia and New Zealand now looking at elimination.

2. Sweden looking at herd immunity.

Australian PM saying herd immunity is not possible:

https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/pm-declares-no-country-in-the-world-will-develop-herd-immunity-20200501-p54p02

I am not saying either is right, but depending on non-symptomatic spread, i would rather be in Swedens' position. Their healthcare system did not collapse.

Having zero cases in New Zealand, South Australia and Western Australia sounds great, but we are yet to face the virus and we suffer economically at the same time.

We essentially have to wait for the rest of the world.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even if the Swedish approach "works" - and their deaths are currently climbing - that doesn't mean it would be easily transferable to other, different, countries. Sweden is Sweden.

[Mike88]

Portugal update: (1 May)

Total cases: 25,351 (+308)
Deaths: 1,007 (+18)
Recoveries: 1,647 (+128)
Patients in ICU: 154 (-18)
Patients hospitalized: 892 (-76)

More than 400,000 tests conducted since March 1st.

By Region, the North has the highest numbers, 15,321 infected and 578 deaths, while Madeira has the least, 86 infected and 0 deaths.

[Meclazine for Israel]

To Cumbrian Leftie,

The deaths in Sweden week on week are now falling. Australia has a similar population to countries like Sweden and Norway.

It will be interesting to see how Sweden go in their summer. 21,000 cases is not a lot in the scheme of things, and they look like the have peaked on 'Active Cases' and daily death rate.

Australia has eliminated the virus almost entirely apart from elderly homes and our coldest state, Tasmania, is not going down like the other states.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Even if the Swedish approach "works" - and their deaths are currently climbing - that doesn't mean it would be easily transferable to other, different, countries. Sweden is Sweden.

Also, even if it were easily transferable, that doesn't mean it would be guaranteed to work everywhere. It's easy for a few freak occurrences to send R shooting up and to lose control of the infection. The lockdowns were designed to be able to deal with worst case scenarios, not just the most likely outcomes.

[Mike88]

Labour day union demonstration in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1256230818017574913

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite impressively done, really

[Mike88]

Quite impressively done, really

Yeah, but the feedback isn't being very good. A lot of pundits on TV are criticizing the CGTP union, close to the PCP, of giving the wrong image to the country, and that they should have found new and innovated ideas to celebrate the date. And a poll, released today, also found that 82% of the electorate doesn't approve the Labour day demonstrations.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Great news. Australia is nearly ready to get back to normal programming.



Australia 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 3,491 – April 3
Recoveries added to curve – 275

Australia and NZ are now talking about elimination. It appears that the virus is nearing that point in New Zealand, South Australia, Western Australia, ACT and NT.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is saying that restrictions will be eased if people download the COVID-19 tracking app which tracks people's locations in relation to known positive cases.

But winter is coming, so no one knows what is going to happen in the colder weather. Our two coldest states have just entered much lower temperatures and are not shaking the virus yet, so there is a chance this could come back.

In terms of countries entering the first quarter of this curve (sub-exponential growth), we have Russia, Brazil, Peru, India and Mexico.

Singapore and Japan have calmed from their 'late' peaks and are on the decline in Active case numbers.

[Pulaski]

The big question mark hanging over Sweden’s strategy is whether or not being infect confers long-term immunity - they believe it conferred at least medium-term immunity in most SARS recoveries, but they don’t have nearly enough evidence on it with COVID-19.

[President Johnson]

Germany:

Total cases: 164,077
Deaths: 6,736
Recovered: ~129,000
Ongoing: 28,341

Number of active cases again dropped by several thousands within a few days.

[Tender Branson]

Only 21 new cases here since yesterday, 12 of them in Vienna.

My state, Salzburg, had 0 new cases.

Active cases down to 1.700, while there are almost 14.000 recoveries already.

+7 deaths since yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Noteworthy also that the state of Tyrol, which used to be THE hotbed of infections in Austria (ski resorts), had zero new cases yesterday.

3 of the 9 states (Tyrol, Salzburg and Carinthia) had no new cases yesterday, while Vienna had the most.

Vienna also had the most infections in the past week (80% of all Austrian new cases) and together with Styria, accounted for most deaths in the past week.

[Tender Branson]

ALL stores are open again today in 🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹.

Look at that line of people outside a Graz IKEA:

[Omega21]

ALL stores are open again today in 🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹.

Look at that line of people outside a Graz IKEA:

Plebs who don't know how to use the internet...

[parochial boy]

Some polling from Switzerland:

How much do you trust the following?

 - The Swiss Federal Council - 79% trust
 - The (Swiss) media - 63% trust
 - The WHO - 50% trust
 - The Italian government - 40% trust
 - The EU - 37% trust
 - China - 14% trust
 - The USA - 8% trust

So, here at least, massive disaster for the reputations of both China and the USA

[Meclazine for Israel]

ALL stores are open again today in 🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹.

Look at that line of people outside a Graz IKEA:

Plebs who don't know how to use the internet...

Can we have Tender's Live Video Austrian Crime Megathread?

You knows what the fans want.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some polling from Switzerland:

How much do you trust the following?

 - The Swiss Federal Council - 79% trust
 - The (Swiss) media - 63% trust
 - The WHO - 50% trust
 - The Italian government - 40% trust
 - The EU - 37% trust
 - China - 14% trust
 - The USA - 8% trust

So, here at least, massive disaster for the reputations of both China and the USA

US lower than China surely has to smart a bit!