International COVID-19 Megathread

[parochial boy]

Not exactly Berlin 1989, but the fencing that had been put up to separate Kreuzlingen (CH) and Konstanz (DE) was pulled down today. It had become a sort of major tragedy (at least on this side of the border - where it had been called the "barrier of shame") - and a poignant little reminder of just how important Schengen and open borders have become to our way of life. Especially for those of us who live in, or come from, border communities.

Even for people in Thurgau of all places.

[urutzizu]

I think on this side of the Border the Border Closure was very much seen as necessary - Baden Württemberg was the state pushing hardest for the Border closures in the first place and generally the one's more sceptical about reopening - not because of Switzerland mainly, but because we border Grand Est which was the French epicenter. In Germany generally though, it was, not least due to the historical symbolism you mentioned, seen something that should go as soon as medically possible. Especially in Saarland there has been a lot of criticism against it.

I think I have now heard the phrase "The Virus does not care about national borders" more often than I can remember - it always seemed a little bit disingenuous tbh. Because of course it does - that is how this virus is pretty much exclusively transmitted from one country or region to another - by people travelling. It can't be the only measure, of course, but if you look at how during the first phase of the pandemic many Asian Countries prevented major outbreaks originating from China, when Europe could not, or if you look at the Countries generally that have been held up as better examples of fighting the pandemic: Australia, NZ, Denmark, Israel, Much of Eastern Europe - it tended to be those that, among other things, closed borders and quarantined arrivals fastest.

Ultimately I don't like the sight of Border Guards and fences in Europe either  - I hope we have a proper Schengen wide governance to avoid it next time. But until then nation states must do what the EU can not.

[parochial boy]

Oh, the actual closing of the border at the time wasn't particularly controversial - it was a scarier time; and as much as anything else, it was a way of restricting movement and contact. The fact it was also an international border was almost incidental in achieving that, it some ways.

The thing is though, people who live in thosee border metro areas - the Genevas, Basels, Kontanzes; you often start to build their lives on both sides of the border - be it relationships, school, work, leisure or whatever. I mean, me personally, I had friends at school and uni who lived in France, there was a time where I used to cross the border half a dozen times a day just because it shortened my commute. So in that respect, seeing an actual physical barrier go up was quite a big shock for the people who live there. And I think (hope) that it will give people a renewed appreciation of just how precious, and how valuable it is to them on an individual level, having that freedom to move arouns actually is.

The fact that Kreuzlingen, which is not at all a left-wing town, was pushing so hard for to take the fence down, feels encouraging at least.

[Meclazine for Israel]

because it's not a random 15%, but a 15% that can be expected to be on average more susceptible and more exposed than the remaining 85%.

I am not sure this is true. The people getting infected can be healthy and are travelling on planes, trains, cars and cruise ships. They could not be more random.

The only predictable part you are referencing are the staff at grocery stores, hospitals etc.

It really depends on the path to infection. If staff are spreading it to people, then you are correct.

If surface infection is a major cause, then it does not matter. I suspect, it can spread in indoor environments with the aid of air conditioning.

We just have to wait and see what the research says in 2 years time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Starting to get states in Australia with zero cases.



Moving towards eradication with no cases at all in South Australia and ACT.



Western Australia has no hospital cases.

Some predictive graphs for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 148,500

UK has now stopped reporting Active cases altogether. No recovery data. No active cases. This suggests a lack of a pre-planned coordinated response. The data is most likely so bad and confused that they have decided not to release it at all. They have some of the top scientists in the world in the area, but the medical system has been flooded by the looks.


France



France 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,000

France on it's way down still.


Germany



Germany 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 9,500

Germany easily the most organised country in Europe dealing with the response with the corresponding lowest death rate. The data was clean start to finish.


Spain



Spain 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 31,500

Spain on it's way clear of the virus in June.


Italy



Italy 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 67,200

Italy nearly clear of the main event. Recoveries coming in thick and fast.


USA



USA 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 652,000

A lumpy decline due to the weekly reporting natural wavelength within the dataset. The US is declining at a slower rate than initially predicted.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[palandio]

because it's not a random 15%, but a 15% that can be expected to be on average more susceptible and more exposed than the remaining 85%.

I am not sure this is true. The people getting infected can be healthy and are travelling on planes, trains, cars and cruise ships. They could not be more random.

By susceptible I didn't mean not healthy. We don't know yet, but it seems plausible that some individuals are less likely to be infected even when exposed, i.e. children (maybe) or people who have antibodies against other corona viruses (big maybe) or a more flexible immune system (maybe).

Travelling on planes, trains and cruise ships means potential exposure. The more you travel, the more exposed you are. That's not completely random. Of course it is possible to get infected on the train if you take the train only once, but it is more likely to get infected if you take the train every day.

Think about it like this: You have to toss a dice a fixed number of times and if you get at least one six, you have to pay 5$. Of course you can get a six at the first toss and it is possible to get no six in six tosses. But if you had to choose in advance, you would rather toss the dice only one time.

The only predictable part you are referencing are the staff at grocery stores, hospitals etc.

It really depends on the path to infection. If staff are spreading it to people, then you are correct.

I would not even be sure about grocery shop staff because studies suggest that infection risk depends on the virus load and if the contact with an infected person is short then the virus load is usually low.

If surface infection is a major cause, then it does not matter. I suspect, it can spread in indoor environments with the aid of air conditioning.

We just have to wait and see what the research says in 2 years time.

Yes, we don't know yet what exactly are the risk factors for infection. It will be interesting to see the results of research.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes, men are more likely to be infected than women for example.

[palandio]

[...]

I think I have now heard the phrase "The Virus does not care about national borders" more often than I can remember - it always seemed a little bit disingenuous tbh. Because of course it does - that is how this virus is pretty much exclusively transmitted from one country or region to another - by people travelling. It can't be the only measure, of course, but if you look at how during the first phase of the pandemic many Asian Countries prevented major outbreaks originating from China, when Europe could not, or if you look at the Countries generally that have been held up as better examples of fighting the pandemic: Australia, NZ, Denmark, Israel, Much of Eastern Europe - it tended to be those that, among other things, closed borders and quarantined arrivals fastest.

[...]

To avoid confusion it might be helpful to distinguish between several different effects of travelling on the pandemic. I will speak mostly about the third point:

1. The tracing of infections can become more difficult.

2. Travelling itself is usually tied to social activity and contact and restricting it is also a form of enforcing social distancing.

3. Most importantly, like you said, the transmission of the pandemic into a country. But you rightfully used the term "first phase". It is most important to keep the virus out of the country at a very early stage. Building fences between similarly affected countries at a later stage is much less effective. (Point 1. and 2. still hold, of course.)

[Silent Hunter]

Oh, the actual closing of the border at the time wasn't particularly controversial - it was a scarier time; and as much as anything else, it was a way of restricting movement and contact. The fact it was also an international border was almost incidental in achieving that, it some ways.

The thing is though, people who live in thosee border metro areas - the Genevas, Basels, Kontanzes; you often start to build their lives on both sides of the border - be it relationships, school, work, leisure or whatever. I mean, me personally, I had friends at school and uni who lived in France, there was a time where I used to cross the border half a dozen times a day just because it shortened my commute. So in that respect, seeing an actual physical barrier go up was quite a big shock for the people who live there. And I think (hope) that it will give people a renewed appreciation of just how precious, and how valuable it is to them on an individual level, having that freedom to move arouns actually is.

The fact that Kreuzlingen, which is not at all a left-wing town, was pushing so hard for to take the fence down, feels encouraging at least.

Konstanz was the Germany city that escaped serious bombing in the war by turning its lights on and pretending to be part of Switzerland, i believe.

Also, plenty of other border metro areas; in some cases, you have cities that there were once in the same country now divided by the border.

[Tender Branson]

Major scandal between Coronavirus, the Postal Service and asylum seekers brewing in Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-138-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

[Tender Branson]

Major scandal between Coronavirus, the Postal Service and asylum seekers brewing in Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-138-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

Long story short:

A temporary employment agency has hired asylum seekers from a Vienna institution (which was closed because of several cases weeks ago already) and forwarded the workers to two main postal distribution centers in the Vienna suburbs for parcel sorting.

Most of these temporary work asylum seekers are from Somalia, who probably got infected at the Vienna asylum seekers facility and infected other workers at the postal distribution centers (they are one of the biggest in the country).

About 140 workers there got infected in the past weeks and they had to send a lot of workers into quarantine, disinfect the buildings and bring in 250 people from the Austrian Army to sort parcels.

[CumbrianLefty]

UK virus deaths have slowed from their peak, but even "official" figures (an underestimate, as is likely the case everywhere) are going to hit 35k in the next few days.

Not great.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Total cases: 28,810 (+227)
Active cases: 23,785 (-280)
Deaths: 1,203 (+13)
Recoveries: 3,822 (+494)
Patients in ICU: 115 (+3)
Patients hospitalized: 657 (-16)

More than 600,000 tests conducted since March 1st

The number of recovered is increasing a lot in the last few days, after the government said that the number of recovered patients was to low because patients treated at home weren't being counted and they are now as many doctors are being called to pass recoveries certificates for patients at home. The number is expected to continue to grow more and more in the next few weeks. The number of active cases has also, finally, started to decrease because of this.

The 2nd fase of the end of the lockdown will start next Monday. Restaurants, bars, schools and kindergardens will be allowed to open with some restrictions. Other businesses, like hairdressers, opened two weeks ago. Beaches will also open on June 6 with some rules:

- Traffic light warnings will say if the beach is full or not;
- An app will advise the beaches more less people;
- Walking routes will be defined in beaches;
- Social distancing of 1,5 meters between people and 3 meters between sun umbrellas;

In Madeira, beaches opened yesterday as ruled by the regional government. Madeira has the lowest number of cases in the whole country and zero deaths.

[Omega21]

Major scandal between Coronavirus, the Postal Service and asylum seekers brewing in Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-138-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

Long story short:

A temporary employment agency has hired asylum seekers from a Vienna institution (which was closed because of several cases weeks ago already) and forwarded the workers to two main postal distribution centers in the Vienna suburbs for parcel sorting.

Most of these temporary work asylum seekers are from Somalia, who probably got infected at the Vienna asylum seekers facility and infected other workers at the postal distribution centers (they are one of the biggest in the country).

About 140 workers there got infected in the past weeks and they had to send a lot of workers into quarantine, disinfect the buildings and bring in 250 people from the Austrian Army to sort parcels.

AFAIK, Asylum Workers cannot work legally in Austria, and usually, their Beschaeftigungsbewilligung is denied.

[BaldEagle1991]

I'm willing to bet Brazil, Mexico, and the Philippines will be the biggest epicenters this summer.

[Tender Branson]

Major scandal between Coronavirus, the Postal Service and asylum seekers brewing in Austria:

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-138-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

Long story short:

A temporary employment agency has hired asylum seekers from a Vienna institution (which was closed because of several cases weeks ago already) and forwarded the workers to two main postal distribution centers in the Vienna suburbs for parcel sorting.

Most of these temporary work asylum seekers are from Somalia, who probably got infected at the Vienna asylum seekers facility and infected other workers at the postal distribution centers (they are one of the biggest in the country).

About 140 workers there got infected in the past weeks and they had to send a lot of workers into quarantine, disinfect the buildings and bring in 250 people from the Austrian Army to sort parcels.

AFAIK, Asylum Workers cannot work legally in Austria, and usually, their Beschaeftigungsbewilligung is denied.

Depends if they are asylum seekers or people who have already been granted asylum status by the authorities.

If you are still an asylum seeker, you get basic government assistance and you are banned from employment.

If you already have a recognized asylum status, you can work in several niche areas of the economy where there’s a labour shortage.

[Tender Branson]

The last few days had above-average new infections (= the infected postal workers in the Vienna suburbs), but the last 24 hours only saw 18 new cases.

New cases since the start of May so far, by state (until 8am today):

Vienna: +454
Lower Austria: +185
Styria: +64

Tyrol: +27
Upper Austria: +22
Vorarlberg: +15
Burgenland: +13
Carinthia: +1
Salzburg: +1

Austria: 16.151 (+782)

[Tender Branson]

No COVID-death in Austria in the past 24 hours.

People in ICUs down to 48.

3 of the 9 states have no ICU patients left (Burgenland, Carinthia, Vorarlberg), while Salzburg only has 1 left.

Vorarlberg is also the first state without any hospitalisation left.

Hospitalisations dropped by another 11 people from yesterday to 197.

[Tender Branson]

More troubles for Vienna:

https://www.krone.at/2156153

A shelter for ca. 200 homeless and drug-addicted men was sealed off and put under quarantine after 1 person tested positive there. A big share was re-located elsewhere to get more space between the inmates.

The recent case clusters in and around Vienna have shown that the virus has moved from wealthy ski resorts to the weakest in the society: temporary postal workers with a migrant background who cannot afford to stay home sick and the homeless and drug-addicted.

[Tender Branson]

No COVID-death in Austria in the past 24 hours.

People in ICUs down to 48.

3 of the 9 states have no ICU patients left (Burgenland, Carinthia, Vorarlberg), while Salzburg only has 1 left.

Vorarlberg is also the first state without any hospitalisation left.

Hospitalisations dropped by another 11 people from yesterday to 197.

2nd day in a row with no additional deaths.

+34 new cases, which is below average.

[urutzizu]

Here at least, China does seem to be winning the propaganda war.

Kantar/Pew poll for the Körber-Stiftung:

More Important for Germany:
Close relationship with USA: 37% (2019:50%)
Close relationship with China: 36% (2019:24%)
Both equally: 13% (2019:18%)

How has your Opinion regarding the following Countries changed since Coronavirus (Better/Worse/Same):
USA: (5%/73%/17%)
China: (25%/36%/32%)
EU: (33%/28%/24%)

Younger people considerably more pro-china than the old.

Should Germany onshore critical supply chains, even if it means higher costs:
Yes: 85%
No:11%

Was loaded a bit towards yes the way it was formulated in German.

Should Germany agree to Corona-Bonds:
Yes: 38%
No: 59%

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/deutsche-finden-china-immer-besser-usa-schlechter-umfrage-a-823ff983-5426-42da-ab7f-3f3de985715c

[parochial boy]

Here at least, China does seem to be winning the propaganda war.

Kantar/Pew poll for the Körber-Stiftung:

More Important for Germany:
Close relationship with USA: 37% (2019:50%)
Close relationship with China: 36% (2019:24%)
Both equally: 13% (2019:18%)

How has your Opinion regarding the following Countries changed since Coronavirus (Better/Worse/Same):
USA: (5%/73%/17%)
China: (25%/36%/32%)
EU: (33%/28%/24%)

The second question is at least in part people having a lower opinion of China to begin with surely?

Although given recent coverage of the US refusal to participate in the global co-operation on vaccines/treatments as well as the trickle of news stories about them wanting priority/exclusivity on any vaccine that is developed, we probably have hit a point where Trump has dumped the reputation of his government below that of China.

[President Johnson]

Number of (official) active cases in Germany further goes down:

Infections confirmed: 174,284
Deaths: 7,868
Recovered: 150,300
Active cases: 16,116

The federal government this week also increased benefits for employees with reduced working time and passed a tax-free one-time bonus payment of 1000€ for healthcare workers.

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 176,551
Deaths: 8,003
Recovered: 155,041
Active cases: 13,507

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's been two weeks since Italy began reopening (and today the second phase of the process has begun), so we should start getting a sense of whether the measures are working. Let's take a look.

National totals, linear scale (cropping the cured patients off the chart to show the more important patterns):


National totals, log scale:


Deaths
ICU
Other Hospitalized
Isolated Home
Cured

Hospitalizations+deaths figures by region, linear scale:


So far, things look okay. The number of active cases has continued to plummet rapidly, and unlike earlier this is mostly due to people getting cured rather than dying. The number of people in ICUs is almost back to its levels on March 9th, when the first lockdown measures were enacted. The number of total hospitalization is back to its March 15th levels. Today saw "only" 99 deaths, which is the smallest number since, again, March 9th. So it seems we're heading in the right direction. Still, the trend has started to look like it's leveling off in the past few days, as the pool of dead+hospitalized has remained stable at 43,000 since the weekend. I'm sort of afraid to see it go up again, but there's only one way to find out.

[CumbrianLefty]

UK virus deaths have slowed from their peak, but even "official" figures (an underestimate, as is likely the case everywhere) are going to hit 35k in the next few days.

Not great.

Jump upwards of over 500 virus deaths today (high by recent standards) takes us above that total.