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ExSky
Jr. Member
Posts: 543
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 08:43:31 AM » |
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Margins in Florida have already begun to even out for E Day. Republicans simply don’t have the E Day margin people thought they would.
Source?
Also this guys twitter. A lot of the panic was that Republicans were leading in Broward early on. Now the Dems have pulled ahead and appear to be pulling away. https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99
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ExSky
Jr. Member
Posts: 543
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 12:22:14 PM » |
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View of Florida at start of day:
Dem 3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout +115,416 Rep 3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout
At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)
Dem 3,705,868 or 69.9% -57,563 Rep 3,763,431 or 72.8%
Strong Rep push this morn
Nowhere near enough and the best part of their E Day push is already gone.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
Posts: 543
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 12:48:49 PM » |
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You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?
Dont know how you can see these numbers and not be optimistic. The Republican E Day push that was so touted is not materializing as much as anticipated. NPAs are conservatively breaking 55-45 to Biden and there are way more R > D voters than D > R voters. Keep in mind that these ballot returns are without a Host of counties that will overall lean a bit towards Biden as well. And Florida Dems vote towards the end of the day while Florida GOP votes early on E Day. Of course I don’t have any official metrics but all of that together is making me increasingly confident.
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ExSky
Jr. Member
Posts: 543
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 01:14:43 PM » |
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i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.
My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening
What are you confident about again?
Biden taking Florida
Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?
My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for Biden gets him across the line.
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