Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[PSOL]

Nah, Pablo Iglesias is just Tsipras before he became PM. Stuck in this embarrassing position of never having to strike it rich and keep running on a broad platform.

[oldtimer]

I feel like this article makes some fairly decent arguments. I know a lot of people disagreed /w me when it came to a similar take on the Greek elections thread but I've always been a proponent of 'United Fronts' and 'Multi-Tendency' movements.

The main thing uniting broad currents of the Spanish left is hatred of Pablo Iglesias right now. Not sure that'll produce lasting unity.

Why do they hate him?

Probably another version of Tsipras.

A leftist who looks like he sold out, example:

https://www.politico.eu/article/pablo-iglesias-irene-montero-podemos-leaders-face-party-vote-over-luxury-villa/

That's not the reason. Pablo Iglesias is not like Alexis Tsipras.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this moment, but shocking because Pablo Igledias and Irene Montero bought* a detached home (not a "luxury villa") with their money is extremely hypocritical. Leftists should not be required to live like franciscan monks. Another question is criticizing the demagoguery of Iglesias, who previously said yhat he wouldn't leave his apartment in Vallecas. Iglesias and Montero decided to move outside Madrid and buy a home, in order to raise their their family. They had the money earned from their professional activities. What’s wrong with that?

I'd say some people in the left dislikes Iglesias for reasons like infighting, purges, personal arrogance, appearances in media and a large etcetera. In spite of that, I think almost everybody in the left acknowledges the key role of Pablo Iglesias in the last decade. Like them or not, Pablo Iglesias and Podemos have changed Spanish politics

* To be precise, I think they are paying a mortage

Sounds like a description of Tsipras.

If leftists fail to change the economy, then they pivot to social issues or self-enrichment which becomes their quicksand and drown.

It has happened a dozen times in a dozen countries in my lifetime, I know it by heart.

[Velasco]

[
If leftists fail to change the economy, then they pivot to social issues or self-enrichment which becomes their quicksand and drown.

It has happened a dozen times in a dozen countries in my lifetime, I know it by heart.

See, Spain is not Greece. To begin with, right now the Spanish economy is performing well under complicated circumstances: rising employment, lower inflation rate than other countries in the Eurozone (thanks to the "Iberian exception") and forecasts of economic.growth. Pablo Iglesias had nothing to do with the management of he Economy (Nadia Calviño, independent) or the Trasure (Maria Jesús Montero,  PSOE) portfolios, while he is apparently at odds with the Labour minister Yolanda Díaz (the leader of Sumar).

As for the personal enrichment, I haven't followed Tsipras for years (since he gave up and accepted that painful and humiliating imposition of austerity,  to be precise). I don't know if Tsipras has corruption affairs, but I can tell you that Iglesias has none.

I don't know what kind of "social issues" are you talking about. What’s your issue with them? Are you against womens, minority rights or something?

Whatever your reasons or personal experience with the left in your country, they have little to do with Spain.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

While we're throwing out hot takes: the left lost ground (to the right plus abstention) with younger voters because their economic model lays a huge burden on self employed workers who subsequently end up pushed to the right. This wasn't a problem when you'd win the support of thousands of unionized voters in an area at the cost of a few angry, overtaxed shoemakers, but now kids get their news from Youtubers who have to pay extortionate import tariffs for their equipment and then pay extortionate VAT on everything they earn.

[MRCVzla]

Under the radar aside from the Sumar/Podemos ongoing negotiation (MP/MM denies Iglesias' notice about personal vetoes to Podemos' "leaderesses" ministers from being part on the lists, as he assumes to be from MP/Comuns side; PSOE seems to asume a divided list scenario already calling Podemos "dead" like Cs), some updates from the Regional elections.

-During the weekend, the "CERA" abroad resident by-mail votes came and secured PSOE majority in Castilla-La Mancha (and García Page' reelection) as well the left-wing majority in Asturias. In Madrid, Vox gained a seat from PP, Vox now has 11 and PP 70, no changes to Díaz Ayuso' new majority.
-In Alcorcón (Madrid), in the recount of 42 disputed votes and more than a thousand null votes, the left-wing bloc led by PSOE retained the majority in the "ayuntamiento" who in election night was claimed by the right-wing bloc with PP being the overall winner.
-Yesterday (Tuesday), in Canary Islands, Coalición Canaria and PP reached a coalition agreement meaning the return of CC' Fernando Clavijo to the regional presidency, still to deal a support from the local parties of El Hierro and La Gomera (the socialist "cacique" Curbelo).
-Euskadi/Basque Country: PNV and PSE with the support of PP will private EH Bildu to govern in Vitoria-Gasteiz and the Gipuzkoa' provincial diputation.
-Aragón: incumbent PSOE' regional president Javier Lambán will not lead the opposition to the potential PP government, and will remain as regional party leader until a new party congress.

PP as recovered their old argument of "respect and let govern the most voted list" in attempt to avoid to deal with Vox in upcoming coalition agreements (local, regional or national) and left the job to their regional/local party directions, a little bit contradictory in the mentioned Canary case but in Comunitat Valenciana they will try this strategy meanwhile in Extremadura the regional PP will negotiate a coalition agreement with Vox, in Cantabria, Revilla' PRC will abstain to avoid Vox being an influence in the future PP goverment.

In the Barcelona situation seems more possible a "pro-indy" major rather than a "progressive" one. ERC is more inclined to support Trias instead of PSC or Colau, also PP rejects PSC/Colau.

Returning to the general election' news: Feijoo already says that will cut some Ministries like Equality or Consume and derogate some "ideological" laws like "Trans act" or reforms on the the law about Euthanasia as well a Judicial reform to recover the "Sedición" and the un-block of the CGPJ renovation. Also about the Sánchez proposal to do multiple "face-to-face" debates every Monday til' the election (six, without counting or including the potential debates with all main leaders from the 3 main broadcasters or the Prisa/El País/SER one), Feijoo says that will accept only one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't follow Spanish politics as closely as some do, but my guess is Sanchez probably figured odds of winning were very low so better to go early before PP and Vox had time to plan everything and catch them off guard.  Likely won't save him from defeat though.  This year in Europe has definitely been good for right gaining Finland, likely majority in Greece, and probably soon Spain as well as Sweden last fall.  Actually seems left outside English speaking countries doing horrible in Europe with UK & Ireland only two seem to be looking good.

Finland and Sweden were hardly massive surges to the right though, were they? And in the latter the Social Democrats are now polling higher than they have for years - I wonder if something similar can happen in Spain once the original sugar rush (assuming that happens) of dumping Sanchez fades, to be replaced by a PP/Vox government that could become very unpopular very soon.

[oldtimer]

[
If leftists fail to change the economy, then they pivot to social issues or self-enrichment which becomes their quicksand and drown.

It has happened a dozen times in a dozen countries in my lifetime, I know it by heart.

See, Spain is not Greece. To begin with, right now the Spanish economy is performing well under complicated circumstances: rising employment, lower inflation rate than other countries in the Eurozone (thanks to the "Iberian exception") and forecasts of economic.growth. Pablo Iglesias had nothing to do with the management of he Economy (Nadia Calviño, independent) or the Trasure (Maria Jesús Montero,  PSOE) portfolios, while he is apparently at odds with the Labour minister Yolanda Díaz (the leader of Sumar).

As for the personal enrichment, I haven't followed Tsipras for years (since he gave up and accepted that painful and humiliating imposition of austerity,  to be precise). I don't know if Tsipras has corruption affairs, but I can tell you that Iglesias has none.

I don't know what kind of "social issues" are you talking about. What’s your issue with them? Are you against womens, minority rights or something?

Whatever your reasons or personal experience with the left in your country, they have little to do with Spain.

Greece has lower inflation than Spain and lower unemployment than Spain (must be the "iberian exception")

Una faccia una razza , italian proverb:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

You see the people of the Mediterranian look all alike, they have the same architecture, mostly the same food, spanish sounds just greek too, they dress alike, have similar hairstyles, same corruption, same lack of natural resources, even the music has strong arab influence on both sides.

A town in Syria and it's people can look like a town in Spain, if it wasn't for the sign posts you couldn't tell the difference. (try that on geoguessr to trick people)

Religion is the main difference that splits the people of the sea, otherwise they are one and the same, sharing thousands of years together.

[Velasco]

Greece has lower inflation than Spain and lower unemployment than Spain (must be the "iberian exception")

Una faccia una razza , italian proverb:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

You see the people of the Mediterranian look all alike, they have the same architecture, mostly the same food, spanish sounds just greek too, they dress alike, have similar hairstyles, same corruption, same lack of natural rescources, even the music has strong arab influence on both sides.

A town in Syria and it's people can look like a town in Spain, if it wasn't for the sign posts you couldn't tell the difference. (try that on geoguessr to trick people)

Religion is the main difference that splits the people of the sea, otherwise they are one and the same, sharing thousands of years together.

I don't like to repeat myself, but:

1) Spain is not Greece. Sure, all Mediterranean countries share some common roots (cultural, historical), as well we have olive trees and vineyards. Nevertheless Spain, Italy, Greece, Egypt and Morocco have different realities

2) I said lower inflaion rates compared to other countries in the Eurozone and not inflation rates lower than Greece.

Certainly inflation rates are slightly lower in Cyprus (3.0, May) and Greece (3.0, April) compared to Spain (3.2, May), but they are higher than inflation rates in Switzerland nd Liechtenstein. My most sincere congratiulations to our Eastern Mediterranean brothers and sisters. Anyway current inflation rates are lower in Spain compared to the main economies of the Eurozone, such as France (5.1), Germany (6.1), Netehrlands (5.2) and Italy (6.2). The average rate in the Eurozone is at 6.1, while countries like the post-Brexit UK (8.7), Sweden (10.5), Poland (13) and Hungary (24) are doing much worse. On the other hand, lower inflation in Spain and Portugal is related to the so-called "Iberian exception", that is to say, both countries are temporalily allowed to regulate and limit energy prices because of their relative disconnection from he European grid. Achieving that "exception" iwas undeniably a success for Antonio Costa and Pedro Sánchez

As for the unemployment, Spain and Greece have the highest rates in the Eurozone. High unemployment is probably related to the ecpnomic structure of those countries. Which probably means that, unless these countries undertake long-term structural changes in their economies, it will be hard to lower them to levels closer to the EU average. But again, I didn't compare Spain and Greece. I said that, despite we are facing complicated circumstances, employment is rising to the point that the social security contributors are clse to reach 20.4 million. In order to establish a comaprison, I'll tell you that under Mariano Rajoy (2011-2018) figures never reached the 20 million mark and the unemployment rate was doubling the current figure during the worst stages of the economic recession. I'd say rising employment is an economic success, given the adverse international context

[Velasco]

"Returning to the general election' news: Feijoo already says that will cut some Ministries like Equality or Consume and derogate some "ideological" laws like "Trans act" or reforms on the the law about Euthanasia as well a Judicial reform to recover the "Sedición" and the un-block of the CGPJ renovation. Also about the Sánchez proposal to do multiple "face-to-face" debates every Monday til' the election (six, without counting or including the potential debates with all main leaders from the 3 main broadcasters or the Prisa/El País/SER one), Feijoo says that will accept only one.

We are starting to find out the meaning of "revoking sanchismo". I think Feijóo is being explicit about his intentions because he believes centrist voters are on his side already, so he is appealing to right-wing voters. Leaving aside the very concept of erasing the legacy of a democratic government is reactionary in itself,  I fear this is the prelude of worse things to come. I guess the PP is looking for a result good enough to govern in its own. The PP campaign will resort to the "useful vote' rhetoric, appealing to all the spectre right of the centre sharing a common hatred of Sánchez.  The problem is that it's very unlikely the PP will get a result close to majority, given that it's apparent that Vox has a rock solid base and its leader Santiago Abascal wants a place in the next government. Inevitably this is going to lead to harsher measures to revoke anything the current government has done on issues like: womens and LGBT riggts (it will be painful for trans people, the scape goats of reactionary groups and their TERF allies: see legislation passed in some places of the USA), workers rights (labour reform is deemed "bland" by some people in the left, cause it was negotiated with employers and required by the EU ), the "historical memory" (the heirs of the Civil War victims on the republican side will continue deprived of rights, because PP and Vox don't want to revoke Francoism) and the fight against global warming (Vox is denialist, while the PP is sceptic). Addittionally a PP-VOX government will likely reignite conflict in Catalonia (and probably the Basque Country)

[Mike88]

The 9 June deadline to submit coalition candidacies is fast approaching and tensions are rising within Podemos:

- Más País and Compromís have reached a deal with Sumar and will run in coalition with Díaz party;

- However, within Podemos tensions are rising as regional and local leaders are pressing the national leadership to sign a deal with Sumar and there's contradicting staments of the state of the negociations. If Sumar believes the a deal with Podemos is "close", Pablo Echenique, from Podemos, says that talks are very late and that a deal should have happen by now;

We'll see the outcome. Possibly a last, last, last minute deal is the likely end of this story but we'll see.

[Logical]

Podemos seems to have a death wish is threatening to walk away from negotiations. They even registered a shell party "in error".

[Mike88]

After C's, Foro Asturias and PRC also drop out from the elections:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1666907562548101140

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1666890537339609089

[MRCVzla]

Less than 24 hours to the deadline to register electoral coalitions...
Apart of the "shell party" bluff, Podemos are pushing to the limit the negotiations, with an "express" internal online voting to their party base about approve having "full powers" in the talks or better said, approve to join Sumar, the vote closes in just hours at 11:00 CET, the Valencian branch of Podemos tempts to ran alone whatever the national direction decides today, other regional branches seems more favorable to join Sumar.

In the Sumar area, more parties are confirming their membership in the alliance like Balearic nationalists MÉS (they would lead the list in Baleares), Aragonese' CHA, the canarian Drago Project as well the other Más País members, the valencian Compromís and the ecologists of Verdes Equo, Más Madrid approved massively their support and wants what the lists "reflect the 28-M' results", the other parts of "Unidas Podemos" as IU/PCE, Alianza Verde and the catalan Comuns seems to made official their joining in the next hours. But not all are going to Sumar, Adelante Andalucía wants to run apart but only in one constituency (likely Cádiz or Sevilla) meanwhile the Ceuta' local party MDyC who was one first parties to support Díaz' platform is not standing at all.

Apart of this left-wing drama in its decisive hours.
-UPN proposes to PP to ran together in similar pact like prior to the Navarra Suma alliance with Cs (UPN getting 1st and 2nd on Congress lists as PP-N gets 1st and 3rd in the Navarra Senate ballot), earlier in the week PP sayed it was UPN who initally rejected going in a coalition, that's other coalition "war" to watch, the UPN/PP space always get 2 seats in Navarra, if UPN runs alone could risk the 2nd one and PPN normally doesn't have enough voting muscle to get a seat of this own (could be the first time since er... "the transition" were UPN and PP ran separate)
-The canarian alliance between Coalición Canaria and Nueva Canarias seems to be done and like in April 2019, they run each one by their own (in that election, NC only ran in their stronghold constituency of Las Palmas).
-The PDeCAT (the remains of the old Convérgencia) will run with the name "Espai CiU" (CiU Space), in a new attempt to attract those moderate souveranist votes (and the myriad of former CDC/UDC splinters), PDeCAT had 4 seats within the 8 of the JxCat list in the last legislative term.
-ERC and EH Bildu are doing a "technical" coalition in the Senate (who they already have formed a joint group in the last term) with the name "Left-wing for the Independence".

The clock is ticking, if there is agreement, Sánchez/PSOE could have a little ray of faith to avoid a center-right majority, if Podemos beligerance wins, they seems to be look like IU reached prior to Podemos' own surge (2-3 seats on the Mixed group).

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/spain-far-left-not-enough-225605166.html

"Spain’s Far-Left Not Enough To Save PM Sanchez’s Job, Poll Finds"

refers to a Metroscopia poll

The People’s Party would win 154 seats in parliament and would be able to form a majority in the 350-member house by joining with far-right Vox, who stand to have 40 seats, according to a survey by polling firm Metroscopia. Sanchez’s Socialist party would win 97 seats.

The poll also shows that Sanchez would be unable to retain his job even if a group of far-left parties run on a single ticket on July 23. Sanchez needs support from the far-left to form a government because his Socialist party is unlikely to reach a majority by itself. Because Spain’s electoral system rewards larger parties more than smaller ones, the far-left groups can win more seats if they run together.

[Mike88]

Less than 24 hours to the deadline to register electoral coalitions...
Apart of the "shell party" bluff, Podemos are pushing to the limit the negotiations, with an "express" internal online voting to their party base about approve having "full powers" in the talks or better said, approve to join Sumar, the vote closes in just hours at 11:00 CET, the Valencian branch of Podemos tempts to ran alone whatever the national direction decides today, other regional branches seems more favorable to join Sumar.

Podemos members vote 93% in favour of giving full powers to the party's leadership regarding the Sumar/Podemos negociations:

https://twitter.com/La_SER/status/1667108765647216641

92.92% of Podemos members support supporting the party leadership in whatever it decides on Sumar

Both parties now have precisely 12 hours to reach an agreement, or not.

[jaichind]

Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

[Logical]

Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

The Spanish left agrees on 99% of things but the 1% they disagree on happen to be each other. It's a cesspit of inflated egos and horrible personalities.

[Zinneke]

Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

The Spanish left agrees on 99% of things but the 1% they disagree on happen to be each other. It's a cesspit of inflated egos and horrible personalities.

You can take out "Spanish" from your sentence.

[MRCVzla]

Agreement done "in extremis". Sumar and Podemos are finally running together on the upcoming GE
https://twitter.com/eldiarioes/status/1667231488885006341

Election symbol will have Yolanda Díaz' face (ala Iglesias EU2014 or Errejón GE10-N2019)

Earlier in the morning, IU confirmed their agreement, would head the lists on Córdoba, Málaga, Tarragona, 2nd in Sevilla, 3rd in Valencia or the 9th in Madrid (likely to PCE' Enrique Santiago). Más Madrid pacted the slots 3rd (to saharaui activist Tesh Sidi), 4th (Errejón), 7th and 10th on Madrid list. Jaume Asens from the Comuns leads Barcelona, Compromís will lead the Valencia list as well MÉS in Baleares and CHA in Zaragoza while other Sumar-related independents could lead Sevilla, Asturias, Bizkaia, Alicante or Tenerife (the potential return of Alberto Rodriguez after being his seat suspended on the last legislative term)

Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

The (still unresolved) problem it's on seat-sharing differences bc Podemos wants more listheaders ("puestos de salida") o elegible slots, also end the "vetoes" of some Sumar/Más País members about main Podemos politicians on the lists (mainly Irene Montero and Pablo Echenique). Extraofficial sources say what Sumar would reseve the 5th slot in Madrid for Ione Belarra, the 4th in Barcelona to Lilith Verstrynge and lead the lists in Murcia, Cádiz, Navarra, Gipuzkoa, Álava or Las Palmas (other potential elegible post could be Granada or both Extremadura consituencies). This drama will continue and resolved til' Sunday 18th (deadline to register candidate lists.

Other election news: Sumar and their regional allies are also running together... with PSOE on the Ibiza-Formentera Senate constituency. PP counters UPN offer and wanted the 2nd slot in Navarra (and UPN the 1st and 3rd Senate slots), UPN rejects it and its more inclined to run apart.

The Central Electoral Commission (JEC) also made mandatory the ID cards for whose are going to vote by-mail (expected high turnout due to the election' summer date) to avoid any case of vote-bribing (like happened on local elections in Melilla and other placed)

Other political news: Anna Erra (Junts) its the new speaker of the Catalan Parliament after the definitive impeachment of Laura Borrás' seat.

UPDATE: The electoral coalition has been just registered at the JEC.
https://twitter.com/Yolanda_Diaz_/status/1667250677133856788

[Logical]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

[PSOL]

Well, this is a half-rate NUPES. Let’s see how they do.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Is there a place where we can see the full lists in each circunscripcion when they are published?

[Skye]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

[Logical]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

Possible, as regional parties do worse in a general election. But with the right wing vote divided it's still a likely gain for PSOE.

[Mike88]

UPN will be running separately from PP for the first time ever. With the right vote divided, the most likely seat distribution in Navarre is PSOE 2 (+1), UPN 1 (-1 compared to NA+), Sumar/UP 1, Bildu 1

We have an April poll from GAD3 that has the PP at 22% and UPN at 7% for a general election matchup.

Possible, as regional parties do worse in a general election. But with the right wing vote divided it's still a likely gain for PSOE.

Maybe, nonetheless, it will be close. Bildu is expected to do well again and Vox could also win a seat, although I think it's still a long shot. It could be 1 seat for the 5 main parties, or 1/2 for the biggest party, either PP or PSOE, and 1 for Bildu and Sumar.