Too bad for you.
Fuzzy Bear pretty much resembles your average Tim Fox voter in many respects, though.
Anyway, Gianforte's team has carefully crafted a kind of campaign tailored to the different elements of the party's platform and the many factions of the Republican base in this state (this has been his greatest strength), has actually been very focused and consistent and made no glaring missteps this time, and (unlike Olszewski and especially Fox) has not felt the need to go negative on his opponents (which probably tells you more about the state of the race than any Gianforte internal poll). I don’t think it’s going to be a massive blowout (although I’m always one to keep expectations low), and it’s true that Gianforte could have been more present on the ground
pre-COVID 19 (this is one of Fox's greatest strengths), but it’s absolutely wrong to say that "[Gianforte] never campaigns" (he did a lot of "retail politics" in his first run for governor) just because he didn’t show up in Kalispell, where Olszewski will probably act as a spoiler anyway.
I also feel like Fox is being hurt by the fact that the entire election will be conducted by mail (no open polling places on election day), and he just appealed against a judge's decision to extend the counting of absentee ballots until June 8. The bulk of his strength comes from the kind of "country club Republican" concerned with questions of electability and more in tune with Fox's history + "traditional"/moderate approach as well as senior citizens, and both groups cast a disproportinately large share of the vote in lower-turnout elections. However, that’s now moot. There has been some talk of Democrats crossing over and voting for Fox in the Republican primary (which ironically could end up hurting Cooney), but I don’t think this will be enough to save him—it could make the race closer for Gianforte, however. I’d say that even if Fox loses badly, it was a winnable campaign for him, but he’s played it a little too safe over the years, and even in Montana, the Republican party of 2020 looks a lot more like Gianforte's and Trump's supporters than Fox's base. He’s also alienated some Republican base voters, sometimes tried to have it both ways, and underestimated Gianforte (or more generally the level of opposition he’d face in this race).
Public polling is pretty much non-existent and there’s still some unpredictability especially as far as the margin is concerned, but my prediction:
Rating: Likely Gianforte
Margin: Gianforte +13
49% Gianforte
36% Fox
15% Olszewski
I’ll be more surprised if Fox wins than if Whitney Williams beats Cooney.
Poll
