MT-GOV Republican Primary: Who wins?

[JMT]

I think Gianforte wins by a lot, and perhaps receives Trump's endorsement prior to the primary.

[S019]

Gianforte

[President Johnson]

Punchy Greg.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

In the atlas blue corner, weighing in at 176 pounds, standing at 5 foot 10, he's the wealthiest house member, and he's ready to take out anyone questioning him! Its...


GIANFORTE THE (not really) GIANT!!!

[Orwell]

I have seen Dr.Al on Tiktok

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have seen Dr.Al on Tiktok

An impressive courting of the youth vote, but I don't think it can stand up to Gianforte's #populist energy. If Al runs him close, he might need to bodyslam another reporter to reinforce his authenticity as the candidate voters could have a beer bar fight with.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Gianforte (sadly) wins.

[Mexican Wolf]

Mr. Bodyslammer (who I found last year graduated the same year as my uncle from Upper Merion).

[SnowLabrador]

Gianforte.

[Heir of Camelot]

For what it's worth, Gianforte doesn't seem as popular here (Kalispell) as he used to be. Fox has been here to campaign. The Bodyslammer never campaigns. I have yet to see a Gianforte yard sign anywhere. I know that's not always the best barometer but all the other candidates have them everywhere, even Rosenfail.

[Orwell]

For what it's worth, Gianforte doesn't seem as popular here (Kalispell) as he used to be. Fox has been here to campaign. The Bodyslammer never campaigns. I have yet to see a Gianforte yard sign anywhere. I know that's not always the best barometer but all the other candidates have them everywhere, even Rosenfail.

How is Cooney looking in Kalispell? I know Flathead is pretty safe R, but Bullock was able to get at least an ok result from the county. Quist did ok in the 2017 Special as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte (sadly) wins.

Too bad for you. Fuzzy Bear pretty much resembles your average Tim Fox voter in many respects, though.

Anyway, Gianforte's team has carefully crafted a kind of campaign tailored to the different elements of the party's platform and the many factions of the Republican base in this state (this has been his greatest strength), has actually been very focused and consistent and made no glaring missteps this time, and (unlike Olszewski and especially Fox) has not felt the need to go negative on his opponents (which probably tells you more about the state of the race than any Gianforte internal poll). I don’t think it’s going to be a massive blowout (although I’m always one to keep expectations low), and it’s true that Gianforte could have been more present on the ground pre-COVID 19 (this is one of Fox's greatest strengths), but it’s absolutely wrong to say that "[Gianforte] never campaigns" (he did a lot of "retail politics" in his first run for governor) just because he didn’t show up in Kalispell, where Olszewski will probably act as a spoiler anyway.

I also feel like Fox is being hurt by the fact that the entire election will be conducted by mail (no open polling places on election day), and he just appealed against a judge's decision to extend the counting of absentee ballots until June 8. The bulk of his strength comes from the kind of "country club Republican" concerned with questions of electability and more in tune with Fox's history + "traditional"/moderate approach as well as senior citizens, and both groups cast a disproportinately large share of the vote in lower-turnout elections. However, that’s now moot. There has been some talk of Democrats crossing over and voting for Fox in the Republican primary (which ironically could end up hurting Cooney), but I don’t think this will be enough to save him—it could make the race closer for Gianforte, however. I’d say that even if Fox loses badly, it was a winnable campaign for him, but he’s played it a little too safe over the years, and even in Montana, the Republican party of 2020 looks a lot more like Gianforte's and Trump's supporters than Fox's base. He’s also alienated some Republican base voters, sometimes tried to have it both ways, and underestimated Gianforte (or more generally the level of opposition he’d face in this race).

Public polling is pretty much non-existent and there’s still some unpredictability especially as far as the margin is concerned, but my prediction:

Rating: Likely Gianforte
Margin: Gianforte +13

49% Gianforte
36% Fox
15% Olszewski

I’ll be more surprised if Fox wins than if Whitney Williams beats Cooney.

[brucejoel99]

If Trump endorses Fox, does Fox win, or do MT voters rebuke Trump?

Asks same exact question as thread that you've created outside said thread, aka classic ERM64man spam.

[Heir of Camelot]

I meant Gianforte never campaigns in the traditional sense. I.E making appearances that are open to the public with stump speeches etc.

He's a master of mailings, Newspaper Ads, SEO optimization and attack ads.

I think Cooney would do Okay in the Flathead in the general (if he gets there, he really sleepwalked through this primary). Maybe not as good as Quist (who has deep roots in the area) but solid, especially in Whitefish and Columbia Falls.

[MT Treasurer]

If Trump endorses Fox, does Fox win, or do MT voters rebuke Trump?

Asks same exact question as thread that you've created outside said thread, aka classic ERM64man spam.

I was going to reply in that thread but he (?) had already deleted it.

ERM64Man: Trump isn’t endorsing Fox (especially over Gianforte), Trump Jr. has already campaigned for Gianforte in this race, more than 200K absentee ballots have already been returned and more votes are being cast as we speak, there are obvious limits to Trump's ability to hold sway over the GOP base (think of the AL debacle), tribalism among Republican primary voters in MT isn’t nearly as strong as in other parts of the country, and Trump probably still takes credit for Gianforte's win in 2017 or whatever.

What a baffling question.

[Xing]

Unelectable Joker NEW JERSEY Greg somehow beats Likable Electoral Titan Montana Tim.

[Heir of Camelot]

Some Dems are crossing over to vote against Gianforte in the primary. Interesting to see if this is a factor (could also hurt Cooney).

[I’m not Stu]

Some Dems are crossing over to vote against Gianforte in the primary. Interesting to see if this is a factor (could also hurt Cooney).

Where did you hear that? I remember that Wyoming Democrats voted in large masses in the Republican primary for Mark Gordon to stop Foster Friess.

[Heir of Camelot]

All the Dem Facebook groups are buzzing about it. They are being discouraged from doing it and urged to vote the Dem primary but I personally know at least 10 registered democrats voting in the Republican Primary to try and block the Bodyslammer from advancing to the general election.