Saskatchewan election 2020

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, Wyoming is pushing it--and Regina and Saskatoon are far more dominant than Cheyenne and Casper.

The Dakotas are a closer equivalent, geographically and politically (i.e. their erstwhile amenability to Democrats, even those of a "McGovern-progressive" strain)

What's Alberta's US analogue?

Interestingly the Alberta NDP has pretty much become the Saskatchewan NDP, but better positioned perhaps given that it is a more urban province.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, even if the NDP doubled its seat count in Regina and Saskatoon they'd still be well behind.  Saskatchewan has become a very conservative province.  

To win province-wide at this point, the NDP would basically have to sweep Regina and Saskatoon like they did in 1999, or vote like Edmonton did in the 2015 Alberta election (Edmonton seems to be the "big sister" to both).

[King of Kensington]

The Ontario NDP wins lots of rural seats in northern Ontario and the BC NDP seems good at winning rural seats on Vancouver island and along the coast. They could easily gain Skeena and Fraser Nicola too

In other words, non-agrarian rural seats.  These are seats with a history of industrial unionism.

[King of Kensington]

Yes the NDP does very well with First Nations voters.

[King of Kensington]

Regina and Saskatoon are quite suburban in character and have a lot of "blue collar prosperity."  Mini-Edmontons in a sense.  So yes the NDP's problem is much of an urban problem as it a rural problem.  Right now they're the party of the inner cities and northern First Nations communities.  

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Erin O'Toole could break that pattern in Peterborough, given both demographic sorting (Peterborough is about 90% white and 25% university educated) and his fairly "local" roots.

[King of Kensington]

Saw a poll where the PCs were polling at 12%? 

Seems like small-"c" conservative parties can now count on 60% of the vote in Saskatchewan.

[King of Kensington]

A case could be made that Saskatchewan and not Alberta is now the bedrock of conservative support in Canada. The federal Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in 2019, but fell one seat short of doing the same in Alberta. Some federal polls have recently put Conservative support in Saskatchewan running roughly even with the party's support in its western neighbour.

Provincially, the Saskatchewan Party and leader Scott Moe remain popular, while Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party have dropped in the polls. The NDP won an election in Alberta in 2015. The NDP has not won an election in Saskatchewan since 2003.

Another emphatic victory by the Saskatchewan Party would make the case stronger. Already, the party has put up historic performances, capturing more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last two provincial elections. The only other provincial parties in Canada to have done that in at least two consecutive elections were the Newfoundland Liberals after the province joined Confederation and the Quebec Liberals during the First World War.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-political-dynaties-1.5747048?cmp=rss

[King of Kensington]

Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina all seem pretty similar in their voting patterns. 

[King of Kensington]

What role did ethnicity play in the CCF-NDP vote?  According to Lipset's Agrarian Socialism, Scandinavians and Ukrainians were disproportionately pro-CCF, while German Catholic and especially Mennonites were the most anti-CCF.