Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

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It's Likely D. There is a path for the GOP nominee here but it takes a whole bunch of things going right.

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jimmie's rating is basically mine. Lean D.

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jimmie's rating is basically mine. Lean D.

Yes.. I am not entirely convinced college educated whites will still be voting Democratic.

I am actually not that worried about Nova at all. I am more worried about places Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach.

What do you think the statewide map would look like in a narrow Miyares victory?

I would assume it would be to take Trump's 2020 map and add:

Virginia Beach
Chesapeake
Suffolk
Chesterfield
Lynchburg
Winchester
Stafford
James City
Prince Edward
Staunton
Northampton
Surry
Montgomery
Radford

Get within 20% in Henrico, Prince William and Loudoun. Get within 35% in Fairfax.

That's what I'd assume the map would look like in a 1 point victory for Jason Miyares.

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Lean D.

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The last thing we need to see on the matter is whether Chase will now actually run an independent bid as she threatened to do so if she lost.

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Also, if you guys want a good city to look out for on election night, It's Radford. While Radford is tiny, it's been within a point or just over a point of the statewide vote in the past three presidential elections with a slight tilt to the GOP compared with the statewide vote. A Republican can lose statewide while winning Radford, but a close Radford could mean a very competitive election.

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Let's Talk Elections made a good video about this. He said that while Dems will be the favorites there is some chance the planets could align in the GOP's favor, and I agree with that. I'd say McAuliffe has an 80% chance of winning and Youngkin a 20% chance.

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https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Clinton would have beaten Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, and the "inside the beltway" portion of Fairfax. Biden would have defeated Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, all of Fairfax, and Prince William. It looks like "Fake Virginia" is growing ever larger each election cycle. Soon there won't be any "Real Virginia" left east of the mountains.

Warner would have still won last year without any votes from Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, PWC, Loudoun County, Manassas, Fredericksburg, Falls Church, and Stafford County. People fail to see it’s not just NOVA that has taken a sharp left turn the past 10 years. It’s the fact that Republicans are struggling in Chesterfield County, Henrico County, Lynchburg, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake that is the real death knell for the VA GOP. They need to be winning these places by good margins to win statewide.

I keep saying that a successful GOP run in VA will involve sweeping all the somewhat competitive counties downstate and then getting within 20% in Henrico, Loudoun, Prince William and get within 35% in Fairfax. Radford in particular could be a good indicator of the statewide vote.

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https://twitter.com/NJRedistrict/status/1392140042710261761
This is not Bush voters in 2000 and 2004 who wanted WARRRRR and suddenly switched Democratic in 2016 because of Trump's demeanor.

You can't say Warner lost Loudoun in a low turn out election in 2014 and think that Youngkin has a chance in it in 2012. Two very different elections.


Want to know the place where there could be a signficant shift to the GOP due to "Never Trumpers"? It is called Fairfax County, Viriginia.



Raw vote total has not change as much in proportion to Fairfax County's population. There is evidence there were a lot of Romney to Clinton/Biden voters who could easily vote for Youngkin. But Some people have fundamentally changed.

I think Youngkin needs somewhere in the middle of Romney's and Trump's performances in Fairfax to win.

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I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

Wouldn't it be more Likely D then? I'm not sure if folks are rating based on margins or likelihood

Margins.

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Interesting takes, but I disagree. I doubt Virginia elections one year ahead of the midterms tell us much of anything.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1393990656318660611

I agree with you.

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What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

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My preliminary prediction:



Terry McAuliffe (D) - 52%
Glenn Youngkin (R) - 46%

Looks reasonable.

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Yeah the Trump endorsement doesn't look too good for Youngkin's chances.

I still don't think it's impossible for Youngkin to pull off the upset, but it will be harder.

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Here's my jurisdiction map:

SAFE MCAULIFFE: Fairfax, Fairfax City, Prince William, Loudoun, Arlington, Manassas, Manassas Park, Alexandria, Fredericksburg, Harrisonburg, Albemarle, Charlottesville, Henrico, Richmond, Charles City, Petersburg, Williamsburg, Lexington, Roanoke City, Martinsville, Danville, Brunswick, Greensville, Emporia, Franklin City, Newport News, Hampton, Portsmouth, Norfolk

LIKELY MCAULIFFE: Winchester, Staunton, Northampton, Sussex, Suffolk

LEAN MCAULIFFE: Montgomery, Radford, Prince Edward, Surry

TOSSUP: Stafford, Lynchburg, James City, Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach

LEAN YOUNGKIN: Essex

LIKELY YOUNGKIN: Caroline, Spotsylvania, Westmoreland, Fluvanna, Waynesboro, Nelson, Lancaster, York

SAFE YOUNGKIN: The remaining counties and cities.

McAuliffe+6 statewide.

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McAuliffe+5 or 6. This is what I've been thinking all along and I'm sticking with it. Clock is ticking for Youngkin.

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Bottom line: Maybe the Afghanistan issue will switch...10,000 or something to Youngkin maybe? If the race is close enough to where those 10,000 voters made a difference, McAuliffe has clearly had other issues.

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If McAuliffe wins it will be a result of having a proven track record as governor already and the state's further increasing liberal bent.

If Youngkin wins it will be a result of a depressed Democratic turnout in DC area and a very strong Republican turnout in places like Chesterfield and Virginia Beach. Also, it will have also been a result of Youngkin doing better than expected in the debates and being able to tie McAuliffe to Biden somehow.

[Chips]

If McAuliffe wins it will be a result of having a proven track record as governor already and the state's further increasing liberal bent.

If Youngkin wins it will be a result of a depressed Democratic turnout in DC area and a very strong Republican turnout in places like Chesterfield and Virginia Beach. Also, it will have also been a result of Youngkin doing better than expected in the debates and being able to tie McAuliffe to Biden somehow.

Attacking a president who's not underwater isn't going to help very much. Also, GE debates change nobody's mind.

Military issues would definitely be more effective as a national issue than a state one, even in vet-heavy Virginia.

This also assumes Biden will be underwater on election day but there's a good chance he's back to being firmly approved by then as well.

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Interesting ad. Both sides are still fighting hard it seems.

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I'll once again point out that I think anything from Youngkin+3 to McAuliffe+12 is quite possible and I wouldn't argue with any prediction inside that range.

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Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

He's probably talking about a case where Youngkin is somehow winning or close to winning Virginia Beach and Chesapeake by double digits, is competitive in Suffolk City and is coming within 20 points in places like Newport News. Not sure how likely all that is but if this somehow becomes reality then yes, it would be a pretty dang good sign Youngkin is probably on track to win statewide.

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This doomerism is getting utterly ridiculous.

Welcome to Atlas!

Yeah I know, but this takes the cake.  Really, it's just peak Atlas.  

If youngkin can't get 57% in the beach he won't win.

I'd say Youngkin needs about 52% to have a good shot. Highly unlikely he hits 57%.

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I think I'll spend the last week and half canvassing, text banking and phone banking on my free time instead of panicking online.

I need to do my part to stop trumpism even if youngkin ultimately wins

IDK why but it's always nice to see someone on here be engaged in actual political activity on the ground.