Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[PSOL]

Russia isn’t willing to have two fronts to its South and East be engulfed in intensive fighting. Nothingburger

[CumbrianLefty]

Strange how this thread has gone quiet lately, wasn't WW3 meant to have started by now?

[Lord Halifax]

Strange how this thread has gone quiet lately, wasn't WW3 meant to have started by now?

The uprising in Kazakhstan seems to have delayed it.

[SnowLabrador]

If Russia invades Ukraine, it helps the GOP either way.

If Biden doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who won't help protect our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Either message is extraordinarily dishonest, but it'll still work.

[bilaps]

If Russia invades Ukraine, it helps the GOP either way.

If Biden doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who won't help protect our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Either message is extraordinarily dishonest, but it'll still work.

Politics is cynical, isn'it? Like when Trump banned China flights at the start of pandemic and Biden called him a racist for that.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1480202529413681153?s=20

[PSOL]

All this hot air traveling fast could be harnessed for renewable energy

[😥]

In my opinion, after the recent events, including the invasion of Kazakhstan and Ryabkov's statements, Putin has already decided to invade. And, accordingly, Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. My inner feeling suggests that this may happen in late February.

[PSOL]

In my opinion, after the recent events, including the invasion of Kazakhstan and Ryabkov's statements, Putin has already decided to invade. And, accordingly, Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. My inner feeling suggests that this may happen in late February.

Have Ukrainian forces been on high alert and mobilized everywhere?

[😥]

In my opinion, after the recent events, including the invasion of Kazakhstan and Ryabkov's statements, Putin has already decided to invade. And, accordingly, Russia will launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. My inner feeling suggests that this may happen in late February.

Have Ukrainian forces been on high alert and mobilized everywhere?

No. However, Zelensky has been resting for 9 days on a short vacation, which is unknown when it will end. Our head of the NSDC, Danilov, continues to declare that "Russia will not attack" or "We will easily defeat Russia." The current Ukrainian government is doing nothing to prevent the Russian invasion and/or mass death of Ukrainian military and civilians in a future potential full-scale war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully, they are right - but I'm not holding my breath either way.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1480587956490493963?t=vdOHKHlaqi9Yyh9Vvxicbg&...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1480721982056448007?s=20

[😥]

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1480927005508083717?t=9SAoZ6H2Mg1O_5eP2pWqFA&am...

[PSOL]

While I doubt Ukraine actually gets invaded, hopefully the Ukrainian Left takes the power vacumn to rise once again from the chaos push and get the Russian and NATO proxies out. I’m always having this video of Ukrainian anarchists being in the back of my mind.

Still, the fact that the Russians are making this pretty blatant and not doing this quickly is suspect that this is to try and get more concessions. Unless Andriy is lying to us, the lack of Ukrainian mobilization for a last stand or to resist is in itself either evidence that there won’t be an invasion or that, like Afghanistan, the EuroMaidan government really is that hollow.

[😥]

While I doubt Ukraine actually gets invaded, hopefully the Ukrainian Left takes the power vacumn to rise once again from the chaos push and get the Russian and NATO proxies out. I’m always having this video of Ukrainian anarchists being in the back of my mind.

Still, the fact that the Russians are making this pretty blatant and not doing this quickly is suspect that this is to try and get more concessions. Unless Andriy is lying to us, the lack of Ukrainian mobilization for a last stand or to resist is in itself either evidence that there won’t be an invasion or that, like Afghanistan, the EuroMaidan government really is that hollow.

One thing I forgot to mention is that on January 1, 2022, the Territorial Defense Forces appeared in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, among other things, will resist the aggressor in the event of an invasion. Territorial defense will have a civilian component (state and local authorities) and military-civil (headquarters of territorial defense zones, voluntary formations of territorial communities).

Also in December, an order of the Ministry of Defense came into force, which significantly expanded the list of professions women of which must register for military accounting. Society has reacted very sharply to this, because by the end of 2022, all women of certain professions between the ages of 18 and 60 must register for military accounting.

[PSOL]

While I doubt Ukraine actually gets invaded, hopefully the Ukrainian Left takes the power vacumn to rise once again from the chaos push and get the Russian and NATO proxies out. I’m always having this video of Ukrainian anarchists being in the back of my mind.

Still, the fact that the Russians are making this pretty blatant and not doing this quickly is suspect that this is to try and get more concessions. Unless Andriy is lying to us, the lack of Ukrainian mobilization for a last stand or to resist is in itself either evidence that there won’t be an invasion or that, like Afghanistan, the EuroMaidan government really is that hollow.

One thing I forgot to mention is that on January 1, 2022, the Territorial Defense Forces appeared in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, among other things, will resist the aggressor in the event of an invasion. Territorial defense will have a civilian component (state and local authorities) and military-civil (headquarters of territorial defense zones, voluntary formations of territorial communities).

Also in December, an order of the Ministry of Defense came into force, which significantly expanded the list of professions women of which must register for military accounting. Society has reacted very sharply to this, because by the end of 2022, all women of certain professions between the ages of 18 and 60 must register for military accounting.

Ok, well that is something, but I would expect something a bit more direct like a national call to mobilize or something.

Can anyone who knows about the Georgian invasion in 2006 give us any information? Were things this blatant?

[BigSerg]

If you don’t like it argue with a wall

Today the NATO-Russia Council "negotiations" took place. Russia demanded security guarantees from NATO and NATO rejected them, nothing new.

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1481313684836265987?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you don’t like it argue with a wall

Today the NATO-Russia Council "negotiations" took place. Russia demanded security guarantees from NATO and NATO rejected them, nothing new.

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1481313684836265987?s=20

Didn't Ukraine pass laws targeting Russian when Poroshenko was president? Wasn't cultural autonomy part of the Minsk Accords?

[BigSerg]

If you don’t like it argue with a wall

Today the NATO-Russia Council "negotiations" took place. Russia demanded security guarantees from NATO and NATO rejected them, nothing new.

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1481313684836265987?s=20

Didn't Ukraine pass laws targeting Russian when Poroshenko was president? Wasn't cultural autonomy part of the Minsk Accords?

Ukraine has passed laws "promoting" the Ukrainian language to the detriment of Russian, Russia and its vassal republics consider this to violate the "autonomy" Ukraine promised in the Minsk agreements. In addition, both sides accuse each other daily of violating the ceasefire.

Lawmakers in 2019 passed legislation to cement Ukrainian as the country's primary language, ordering middle schools that taught in Russian and other minority languages to make the switch and mandating Ukrainian versions of online stores.

An article of the laws that entered into force in January goes further, obliging shops, restaurants and the service industry to engage customers in Ukrainian unless clients specifically ask to switch.

Anyone caught violating the new legislation twice within one year could be fined 200 euros ($235), almost half of the average salary in the country. No one has been penalised so far.

Officials in Kiev say the initiative aims to revitalise a national language that was subjugated first during the Russian Empire and then in Soviet times.

- 'Resentment and fear' -

Moscow, which routinely accuses Kiev of perpetuating "Russophobia" and stalling peace efforts in the east, condemned the language laws in January.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210401-new-law-stokes-ukraine-language-tensions

[Chips]

I still have my doubts about Putin actually going through with invasion as an offensive thing. I think if Putin goes through with it, it'll be in response to us putting missile systems in Ukraine or something along those lines.

The talks this week were underwhelming, but I continue to have hope of potential future rounds of talks lead to serious efforts to a peaceful resolution on this issue.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1482085662954299395?s=20

And now I will wait until BigSerg comes and tells why it is good and why Russia is the best in the world

[GoTfan]

The end result of this is nuclear war.

[CumbrianLefty]

The end result of this is nuclear war.

Nope, the West isn't going to all out war over Ukraine in any circumstances.

Putin knows this, of course.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Posts on Russian social media of families saying goodbye to reservists being called up. Brings home to me the human element of the impending tragedy. If an invasion happens it's kids like this who are going to suffer and die.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1482650878834266114

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1482673019646529541?s=20