Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Lord Halifax]

Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

In what way?

[Lord Halifax]

This is on the trend to end 50,2% for Castillo without the foreign votes, if no surprises happen. Keiko wins on the photo finish?

How big is the foreign vote?

[Lord Halifax]

If he really gets a 150K lead then he likely wins but things are murkier with only 125K. So far it’s 90K with only 1,1% of Peruvian vote to go (which means around 120K to be counted).

I thought that calculation was based on how much he needed to be ahead in the domestic vote to counter the expat vote? He's at 110k in Peru and will almost certainly reach 130k. It doesn't seem logical to mix the domestic vote and the already counted expat vote when making a prognosis.

[Lord Halifax]

For me to cease the maymays for a second, I doubt the Peruvian congress would impeach Keiko for two main reasons. One—that doing so would embolden the Left to take power—and two—that Keiko would organize to hold onto power through her connections with the Peruvian security services.

Given the high rise of commodity prices and the need to end this pandemic, KF has a chance to remain in office for a long, long time while building a web of allies grabbing onto her coattails.

There are 130 seats in the Congress. Castillo's party has 37. Fujimori's party has 24. Both have a small share of the Congress, and the risk of impeachment for both is not negligible.

The Peruvian Left arguably has 43 seats, the Right 62. The Center in this scenario would not want a resurgent left to have another chance now.

You need a supermajority of 87 out of 130 to convict a political official, so if the Left can stay united (I know that's probably not realistic..) all centrist and right wing MPs would need to vote for it, so Castillo bribing a couple of centrists would be enough to block his impeachment.

[Lord Halifax]

Abimael Guzmán has died.

RIP HP

[Lord Halifax]

The reason why the Andean Left is so loopy is that it is backed by traditional Indigenous clan heads and remnants of the Incan aristocracy. This is great for getting elected, as they have a reliable support base whose also very rich and very well connected to the lower rungs in rural areas, however their class position and views are incredibly backwards and not in sync to what the urban working class—or even peasantry—want or need.

There is a reason why Peru Libre was supportive of the Second Kim and North Korea in general, and that is because the latter wholly capitulated to the rural landowners and upper peasantry over the working class doing manual labor or urban intelligentsia. This also explains why Peru Libre have the infighting that they have.

Oddly enough, MAS has somehow balanced these interests much better in having a monopoly of sorts over these groups, but sections of the lower stratum of urban and rural working class they have no control over are represented by radicals in the main trade union rallying around the Quispe family and they are seemingly slipping support over middle class Indians. They, unlike PL, do very poorly in getting the non-Quechuan indigenous vote.

LoL

I like the idea that rich Peruvian landowners are big Kim Jong-il fans.

Literally one of the major supporters of MAS are rural landowners. PL was founded by an angsty intellectual and has the support of Incan nationalists and traditionalists in the “Israelite” religious movement and Ethnocaceristas.

You don’t know anything about these voters or their politics, don’t talk.

I don't deny that some influential rural chiefs support the MAS. I just deny that there are many rural landowner big Kim Jong-Il fans.

I hate to break it to you brah, but a significant amount of somewhat wealthier peasants with some ownership of their land relative to other Koreans were and are major backers of the Kim family, so much so that they backed the liquidation of the South Korean left in order to maintain power. Like, I linked it a while ago lol

never heard that before, do you got a source? The Kim family eradicated private land ownership in NK, so it sounds weird.