2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I did a three way split of KC and preserved incumbent homes, all but two seats above 59% Trump, one seat is 54% Trump and the other seat is the STL VRA seat. Even Kander only won two seats on this map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7bad6f2-5ee8-45b8-883d-c06c29b84835

Cleaver's old seat is the most vulnerable R seat but it voted R for Governor in 2016, as well. Also Clinton did not break 40 in any of the 6 R seats.

When I looked at your map I thought "Oh, that far northern MO is the weakest Trump district".
Turns out I was wrong. Looks can be deceiving.
This is a pretty ingenious gerrymander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If I were the MO GOP I would settle for making lines that don't look bad, but still get Cleaver's district to Trump+6 or so.  That should be enough most years. 

By throwing Cleaver in with Sam Graves and splitting Jackson County in two?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fbe4a480-1270-4595-a12a-89729156bea4
this is my 7R-1D map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Perfectly legal 8R-0D map. Every seat is at least Trump +14. Jason Kander lost every seat. I used water contiguity with no bridges for the purple district. I had the red district block all the bridges.

1: Trump +22, 2: Trump +22, 3: Trump +26, 4: Trump +18, 5: Trump +14, 6: Trump +18, 7: Trump +16, 8: Trump +22

I'm pretty sure you would still need a VRA seat in St. Louis.

Even if this was legal, I am certain this map would produce successful action for non-partisan redistricting in Missouri. MO has this thing called ballot initiatives.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This election, Trump appears to have prevailed in Missouri's 2nd by a narrow ~3,675 (~0.8%), so Republicans will probably want to radically reconfigure that district.

The solution is simple - pack MO-01 a bit more, recenter the 2nd by giving it all of St. Charles County, and the rest of the map draws itself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

Nice, clean map. Definitely fits the role of "partisan gerry that looks very clean" like a glove.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1390349202853617668?s=20

Obvious redistricting implications

probably makes a cracking of KC likelier, as there isn't an incumbent in the mix to placate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hypothetical MO-08 in Dave's 7R-1D map can't happen because rural Rs in SE MO don't want to dilute the rural nature of their CD.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hypothetical MO-08 in Dave's 7R-1D map can't happen because rural Rs in SE MO don't want to dilute the rural nature of their CD.

The district is still decidedly majority rural by population. When you include Cape Girardeau, it becomes near certain that the 8th would not be dominated by STL suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, but wouldn't they want as pure of a rural seat as they could get?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hypothetical MO-08 in Dave's 7R-1D map can't happen because rural Rs in SE MO don't want to dilute the rural nature of their CD.

The district is still decidedly majority rural by population. When you include Cape Girardeau, it becomes near certain that the 8th would not be dominated by STL suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, but wouldn't they want as pure of a rural seat as they could get?

In the abstract, maybe? But doing that means needlessly sinking a lot of Republican voters to the large detriment of Wagner and Luetkemeyer to the very marginal benefit of... some random state senator or state rep who hasn't even announced yet? It's not even like the portion of STL County and Northern Jefferson being taken in are that culturally dissimilar, North Jefferson and South STL County are very White and working class.

When MO-08 was originally drawn it was only McCain +22. It is now Trump +56. Unless Missouri Republicans are particularly stupid for some reason, they will try to unpack the district at least somewhat.

Would anyone here ever argue that Illinois Democrats wouldn't sacrifice drawing out Kinzinger to better maintain the exclusively Urban character of some of their districts? Kansas Republicans don't seem to have a problem with diluting the rural character of KS-01 - they've all but announced that Wyandotte County will be included with the 1st. Why do only Missouri Republicans have the idiot ball?

Point taken re: parochialism not necessarily being as strong in context of Missouri as I assumed it to be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[a nice map]
snip

You inspired me to see what an ideal "fair-proportional" map would be, with compact districts and county integrity being also important (while also taking CoI into account). In the image, I have the same election depicted [AG 2016].
The map has 1 safe Dem seat (MO-01, black parts of St. Louis City and County+western St. Louis County), 1 likely Dem seat (MO-02, white parts of St. Louis City, all of Jefferson, and the rest of St. Louis County), 1 lean/likely Dem (MO-05, parts of Jackson and all of Cass and Jackson), 1 lean/likely R (MO-06, parts of KC city, rest of KC metro, Columbia, ancestral Dem rurals), and 4 safe GOP seats (MO-03, MO-04, MO-07, MO-08).
If Ds are doing well enough in MO that they'd be closest to 4 seats, they will stand a good chance of winning the 6th. If Rs are having a very good year in MO, they will stand a good chance of winning the 5th. Despite the 2nd being only Clinton+5 I would consider it essentially unwinnable for a Republican, given how strongly Dem St. Louis City is and how Dem the areas neighboring it are.
The 8th and 4th hold almost all of St. Louis far-exurbs, in much the same way most of exurban KC metro is in the 6th.
Only 2 avoidable county splits - 1 in St. Louis City and another in St. Charles, one that I decided to have to avoid an utterly unwieldly 4th wrapping around Columbia.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/22642f79-a625-4b3e-b2a6-9e1464137c42

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a redistricting aid I made:

If you want a make a given district more Republican you add counties with higher values, and remove those with lower values (and vice versa).

Thanks for this!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SNIP

If this route - leave the KC seat, pack St. Louis seat even more, swap suburban counties around so Wagner is fortified - is pursued, it brings with it a new question: how will KS-05 change? There is no longer a need for the Skelton arm eastward. There is no need to pack Dems from the other two counties - the surrounding seats are already very red and not going to get blue - but the arm is unnecessary and removing it will have little overall impact. Would the district become mainly Jackson county or would it focus on maintaining the unity of Kansas city and take in the major parts from the counties to the north...

There's also the question of how it would impact MO-06.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

Don't think Rs would sign on to a map that could plausibly go 4-4 in a bad year - or even worse, a relatively neutral year later in the decade.

Wouldn't any realistic map that could produce 7R-1D, also involve the willingness to take that risk?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

Don't think Rs would sign on to a map that could plausibly go 4-4 in a bad year - or even worse, a relatively neutral year later in the decade.

Wouldn't any realistic map that could produce 7R-1D, also involve the willingness to take that risk?

Yes, but with sufficient unpacking you could probably get at least 2 of the 3 marginal seats (Kansas City seats and the STL burbs) to at least Trump+10-15, if not all three. The likelihood of this map failing are simply too high IMO (MO-2 and to a lesser degree MO-6 will probably be tossups by the end of the decade with trends, and MO-5 is marginal from the get-go).

I've done some edits. But it kind of fails to meet the working condition, because MO-05 isn't really as competitive now...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b497f085-4830-42e5-810c-3da8e9a642ed
This is an effort at a competitive MO-05 map.
Sam Graves' seat is most altered, but he still keeps the bulk of his territory. He does pick up a notable amount of white liberals in Kansas City, but he should be fine.
MO-05 has been turned into a Trump plurality district that borders Illinois and Iowa. Far from safe, but much more winnable than the current MO-05.
Wagner gets an MO-02 that is about 3 points more R than currently. About 63% of R voters in MO-02 would be in St. Louis County under these lines.

That MO-02 very much resembles the MO-02 on this map I drew a few days ago.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where was the 2016>2020 trend concentrated? Part of me wonders if in fact, while having an all-St. Charles CD would boost Wagner's topline number, it would be worse for her by 2030, because the sorts of demographic shifts that are driving her seat in the D direction are strongest in St. Charles County as opposed to St. Louis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where was the 2016>2020 trend concentrated? Part of me wonders if in fact, while having an all-St. Charles CD would boost Wagner's topline number, it would be worse for her by 2030, because the sorts of demographic shifts that are driving her seat in the D direction are strongest in St. Charles County as opposed to St. Louis.

The southwestern part of St Louis County has pretty strong D trends too, it's really the northern part in the MO-1 area that has the weaker trends or even R trends.

It's really weird they opted to put basically the entire area that's trending D into MO-2,  would there even be a much better district possible for Democrats?   MO-1 is kinda stuck the way it is really.

But is Southeastern St Louis County trending D as fast?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where was the 2016>2020 trend concentrated? Part of me wonders if in fact, while having an all-St. Charles CD would boost Wagner's topline number, it would be worse for her by 2030, because the sorts of demographic shifts that are driving her seat in the D direction are strongest in St. Charles County as opposed to St. Louis.

Nope, you'd have a smaller swing there too.

Swings:

MO-3 portion of St. Charles (current map)
Trump +27.9 -> Trump +18.9:  9pts left

MO-2 portion of St. Charles (current map)
Trump +25.4 -> Trump +15: 10.4 pts left

MO-2 portion of St. Louis (current map)
Trump +5.7 -> Biden +5.0: 11.7 pts left

-----

MO-3 portion of St. Charles (new map)
Trump +21.7 -> Trump +13.0: 8.7 pts left

MO-2 portion of St. Charles (new map)
Trump +29.6 -> Trump +20.5: 9.1 points left

MO-2 portion of St. Louis (new map)
Trump +9.0 -> Biden +1.6: 10.6 points left

----

Not to mention, the exurban areas around Wentzville are still growing quite a bit, so you could see a lot of new GOP voters in those areas, while Southern STL county is basically entirely built out

This goes a long way in explaining both why it would be safer for her in the GE if she takes all of St. Charles, and also probably safer in the primary if she doesn't. New arrivals mean potential GOP primary voters, who might well be less favorable to her than her current electorate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

and we have our first GOP dissenter against the map:

https://twitter.com/BillEigel/status/1477409700903800836

How many people do you think he speaks for, likely?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prolly get some sort of Republican "compromise" map which has MO-02 take in all of St. Charles, in turn making it redder while keeping it's suburban character. There's really no reason for Rs including Wagner herself to oppose this. However, seems like there's too many institutional reasons at this point MO-05 won't be cracked, similar to how MD Dems weren't able to make MD-01 into a reliably blue seat even though they "easily" could've with how ugly they were willing to make the map, but instead made it a swing district that half accomplishes the task.

Wagner may not like it actually because a primary challenger would be from St Charles . That would probably be 60% of the GOP primary vote.

So it's actually better for her to have a more marginal district; an all-St. Charles CD might fairly easily result in her being primaried.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Democratic caucus needs to come out in support of it right now.

Not yet, methinks. They shouldn't be too loud about it. If your opponent is in the middle of making a mistake, don't interrupt them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Billy Long of the 7th district supports 7-1:

https://twitter.com/auctnr1/status/1479442040844955650

I think this is the first comment on the matter from a member of the GOP congressional delegation.

Except he isn't  a member anymore,  his district is one of several the leg is playing with to benefit their own candidates as successors.  With this in mind, his statement seems like one to curry favor in the senate primary,  not a statement born out of desires to see "his" seat redrawn.

Of course. It's not like Billy Long is above engaging in his own bit of kabuki theater.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We have our first change to the GOP draft plan:

In response to complaints from residents of Ray County (which was split between MO4 and MO6), Ray, Carroll, and Chariton are now entirely in MO-6, and MO-4 has taken a portion of Jackson County (which is now split in 3).

What portion of Jackson? Are there images or a bill anywhere?

That MO-05 reminds me of the MO-05 that existed in the 2000s, only it's sizably bigger. Goes to show how KC has bled population and fell in statewide population % over time.