2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is that a fair map or some sort of gerrymander?

A fair map that follows MO redistricting rules it seems to me, though geography always makes MO slightly R leaning in a fair map. I think the real question will be whether Dems will have a viable path to break Rs supermajority under the new MO senate map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a redistricting aid I made:

If you want a make a given district more Republican you add counties with higher values, and remove those with lower values (and vice versa).

Thanks for this!

[MarkD]

State Senate Redistricting:

This probably starts off as 24-10, but could shift a bit either way depending on how far trends go. Dems have more theoretical upside, but only because they are already close to bottoming out.

That is a very interesting map. In that map, Districts 21 and 29 stay exactly the same as they are now. District 19 will likely flip Democratic in 2024, although that win might be mitigated by the new version of District 1 possibly flipping Republican. District 24 might flip Republican in 2022. Also, I don't think that they'll change St. Charles County's Districts 2 and 23 as drastically as that map shows. The new map will more likely keep District 2 in western St. Charles and District 23 in the eastern part of the county.

Regarding a new congressional district map, I still don't think -- like I said earlier in this thread -- that the legislature is going to crack the current District 5 and create a 7-1 map. I think it is more likely that the legislature will keep the map with the current 6-2 ratio.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

[Ritz]

Governor Parsons just gave Democrats and dissident Republicans significantly more leverage than they would have had otherwise by deciding not to call a special session. Odds of a 6-2 map, and even an unintentional 5-3 map have gone up.

An unintentional 5-3 map? From what, the courts taking over?

[BoiseBoy]

Cleaver keeps hearing that an attempt will be made to gerrymander him out of MO-05. Sen. Cierpiot, a Republican on the redistricting committee, believes changes will mostly be centered around MO-01 and MO-08 (which are both underpopulated and need to take in about 48k and 44k people respectively). He predicts "gentle" changes to the district lines to accommodate population changes and mot much beyond that.

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1431336714732179466?s=20

I would imagine MO-01 and MO-05 stay safely Democrat, while MO-02 becomes more Republican for the time being, as MO-01 will take in a lot of its bluer precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

If this route - leave the KC seat, pack St. Louis seat even more, swap suburban counties around so Wagner is fortified - is pursued, it brings with it a new question: how will KS-05 change? There is no longer a need for the Skelton arm eastward. There is no need to pack Dems from the other two counties - the surrounding seats are already very red and not going to get blue - but the arm is unnecessary and removing it will have little overall impact. Would the district become mainly Jackson county or would it focus on maintaining the unity of Kansas city and take in the major parts from the counties to the north...

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's no reason why the GOP can't safely crack MO-5; if they don't it's purely a matter of politics. Idk if the incumbent saying they think they will or won't be eliminated means much when they could be disproportionately worried or hopeful.

[Tintrlvr]

There's no reason why the GOP can't safely crack MO-5; if they don't it's purely a matter of politics. Idk if the incumbent saying they think they will or won't be eliminated means much when they could be disproportionately worried or hopeful.

I would definitely weight the Republican on the redistricting committee much higher in relevance to the discussion.

[Sestak]

Pretty wild that there is a real plausibility here that the KSGOP tries to crack their KC area district but the MOGOP doesn't crack theirs.

[Thunder98]

Here is a 7-1 R map of MO. All GOP seats are safe R and I cracked the KC area 4 times.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6f4a2b0b-b21f-4bfe-9ed1-e8133a94f10b

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SNIP

If this route - leave the KC seat, pack St. Louis seat even more, swap suburban counties around so Wagner is fortified - is pursued, it brings with it a new question: how will KS-05 change? There is no longer a need for the Skelton arm eastward. There is no need to pack Dems from the other two counties - the surrounding seats are already very red and not going to get blue - but the arm is unnecessary and removing it will have little overall impact. Would the district become mainly Jackson county or would it focus on maintaining the unity of Kansas city and take in the major parts from the counties to the north...

There's also the question of how it would impact MO-06.

[Brittain33]

Is there any state that has as many dynasties as Missouri? Blunt, Carnahan, Ashcroft… although maybe it’s just those three.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is there any state that has as many dynasties as Missouri? Blunt, Carnahan, Ashcroft… although maybe it’s just those three.

Not so much nowadays but Massachusetts was the OG dynasty state. Cabot, Lodge, Kennedy, Fitzgerald, Adams, Chaffee (moved to Rhode Island), Weld, Quincy, Choate ….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Brahmin

[bagelman]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d619591-419e-4565-862f-f7cfad5f6f5f

My even map of MO

[iceman]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d619591-419e-4565-862f-f7cfad5f6f5f

My even map of MO

lol

[Frodo]

Partisan tensions flare on Missouri redistricting panels

Partisan tensions have been flaring on a pair of commissions in charge of redrawing Missouri's state House and Senate districts, with Democrats and Republicans at odds over their interactions with the public.

The disagreements have raised questions about whether the panels will be able to find consensus by a Dec. 23 deadline to adopt tentative maps.

Three months after the Census Bureau released new population data, officials in about half the states already have passed new voting maps for their U.S. House or state legislative districts. In Missouri, however, there's not much to show.

Missouri's eight U.S. House districts will be redrawn by state lawmakers, who can't act until their session starts in January. The separate bipartisan commissions responsible for reshaping the state's 163 House districts and 34 Senate districts have been marred by partisan squabbling over whether to post draft maps online and continue accepting public comment.

So far, Missouri’s redistricting effort appears to be “yet another process that has fallen victim to political polarization,” said Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Missouri.

[GALeftist]

Partisan tensions flare on Missouri redistricting panels

Partisan tensions have been flaring on a pair of commissions in charge of redrawing Missouri's state House and Senate districts, with Democrats and Republicans at odds over their interactions with the public.

The disagreements have raised questions about whether the panels will be able to find consensus by a Dec. 23 deadline to adopt tentative maps.

Three months after the Census Bureau released new population data, officials in about half the states already have passed new voting maps for their U.S. House or state legislative districts. In Missouri, however, there's not much to show.

Missouri's eight U.S. House districts will be redrawn by state lawmakers, who can't act until their session starts in January. The separate bipartisan commissions responsible for reshaping the state's 163 House districts and 34 Senate districts have been marred by partisan squabbling over whether to post draft maps online and continue accepting public comment.

So far, Missouri’s redistricting effort appears to be “yet another process that has fallen victim to political polarization,” said Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Missouri.

If Kansas City gets cut I am going to send a sternly worded letter in the mail to every Missouri voter who stopped reading Amendment 3 after seeing the bit about banning gifts from lobbyists.

[lfromnj]

Partisan tensions flare on Missouri redistricting panels

Partisan tensions have been flaring on a pair of commissions in charge of redrawing Missouri's state House and Senate districts, with Democrats and Republicans at odds over their interactions with the public.

The disagreements have raised questions about whether the panels will be able to find consensus by a Dec. 23 deadline to adopt tentative maps.

Three months after the Census Bureau released new population data, officials in about half the states already have passed new voting maps for their U.S. House or state legislative districts. In Missouri, however, there's not much to show.

Missouri's eight U.S. House districts will be redrawn by state lawmakers, who can't act until their session starts in January. The separate bipartisan commissions responsible for reshaping the state's 163 House districts and 34 Senate districts have been marred by partisan squabbling over whether to post draft maps online and continue accepting public comment.

So far, Missouri’s redistricting effort appears to be “yet another process that has fallen victim to political polarization,” said Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Missouri.

If Kansas City gets cut I am going to send a sternly worded letter in the mail to every Missouri voter who stopped reading Amendment 3 after seeing the bit about banning gifts from lobbyists.

Amendment 3 only pertained to legislative maps which is what these arguments are about. Bunch of infighting but expect a fair court map in the end. Amendment 3 merely prevented Nicole Galloway from gerrymandering the legislative maps.

[Mr.Phips]

Partisan tensions flare on Missouri redistricting panels

Partisan tensions have been flaring on a pair of commissions in charge of redrawing Missouri's state House and Senate districts, with Democrats and Republicans at odds over their interactions with the public.

The disagreements have raised questions about whether the panels will be able to find consensus by a Dec. 23 deadline to adopt tentative maps.

Three months after the Census Bureau released new population data, officials in about half the states already have passed new voting maps for their U.S. House or state legislative districts. In Missouri, however, there's not much to show.

Missouri's eight U.S. House districts will be redrawn by state lawmakers, who can't act until their session starts in January. The separate bipartisan commissions responsible for reshaping the state's 163 House districts and 34 Senate districts have been marred by partisan squabbling over whether to post draft maps online and continue accepting public comment.

So far, Missouri’s redistricting effort appears to be “yet another process that has fallen victim to political polarization,” said Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Missouri.

If Kansas City gets cut I am going to send a sternly worded letter in the mail to every Missouri voter who stopped reading Amendment 3 after seeing the bit about banning gifts from lobbyists.

Amendment 3 only pertained to legislative maps which is what these arguments are about. Bunch of infighting but expect a fair court map in the end. Amendment 3 merely prevented Nicole Galloway from gerrymandering the legislative maps.

Couldn’t the Republican supermajority in the legislature have just impeached her?

[lfromnj]

Partisan tensions flare on Missouri redistricting panels

Partisan tensions have been flaring on a pair of commissions in charge of redrawing Missouri's state House and Senate districts, with Democrats and Republicans at odds over their interactions with the public.

The disagreements have raised questions about whether the panels will be able to find consensus by a Dec. 23 deadline to adopt tentative maps.

Three months after the Census Bureau released new population data, officials in about half the states already have passed new voting maps for their U.S. House or state legislative districts. In Missouri, however, there's not much to show.

Missouri's eight U.S. House districts will be redrawn by state lawmakers, who can't act until their session starts in January. The separate bipartisan commissions responsible for reshaping the state's 163 House districts and 34 Senate districts have been marred by partisan squabbling over whether to post draft maps online and continue accepting public comment.

So far, Missouri’s redistricting effort appears to be “yet another process that has fallen victim to political polarization,” said Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Missouri.

If Kansas City gets cut I am going to send a sternly worded letter in the mail to every Missouri voter who stopped reading Amendment 3 after seeing the bit about banning gifts from lobbyists.

Amendment 3 only pertained to legislative maps which is what these arguments are about. Bunch of infighting but expect a fair court map in the end. Amendment 3 merely prevented Nicole Galloway from gerrymandering the legislative maps.

Couldn’t the Republican supermajority in the legislature have just impeached her?

Well she merely gets to pick who got to gerrymander the maps so much easier to just do this and not worry about the courts as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank goodness

[Hope For A New Era]

Looks like Cleaver's district will not be cleaved

[Roll Roons]

I think Jackson County is pretty much the perfect size for one district. Also I did NOT realize that Kansas City was actually growing at a decent clip.

[Former President tack50]

My thoughts on what a 6-2 Missouri map will probably look like:

snip

Wouldn't Republicans want to at least shore up the 2nd district by more than that? Trump+7 is not exactly a safe district even if it'd be a heavy lift for Dems.