NY-20 Special Election

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The internal dynamics of this CD, who will likely be the nominees of the parties (I consider Liddle or Tedesco to be the most likely for the GOP, of those mentioned) and the way special elections tend to go in marginals would make me conclude that the GOP nominee is the favorite unless there is some ugly primary battle that extends beyond the primary.

The dangers of an ugly primary are pretty high, though. State Senators suddenly in the permanent minority want out and aren't going to just give in to Tedisco, who is nonetheless the favorite.

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Any chance that one of the Republican hopefuls that doesn't get the nod is upset enough over the back room deals made with the county chairmen by the GOP nominee  to consider a third party run on the Conservative Party line?

I don't know, but it would seem politically suicidal

If it's one of the State Senators, it's not unrealistic. At least assuming that they are conservative enough to run on the Conservative line in the first place (I'm not familiar with any of their politics). Being a Republican in the NY State Senate has become political suicide anyway--they won't win back control for years if not decades, and there are no statewide offices they could win.

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Saratoga County is the largest population base for NY-20 though, so I expect his geography to help him more than hurt him. 

Oh, I agree.  I just wanted to point out the disadvantage in what to me looks like a good pick for the GOP (if not entirely expected).

On a national level location matters. On an over all region for a statewide race [ upstate/downstate ] it can matter slightly. Do people really give a damn about counties? xD

"Carpetbagger from Schenectady" could work as a campaign strategy. With carpetbagger accusations, it can vary wildly depending on how well the non-carpetbagger candidate exploits it (and, to a lesser extent, on how well the carpetbagger responds to the charge).

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"Carpetbagger from Schenectady" could work as a campaign strategy. With carpetbagger accusations, it can vary wildly depending on how well the non-carpetbagger candidate exploits it (and, to a lesser extent, on how well the carpetbagger responds to the charge).

This district is such a hodge-podge of counties from all over the state that I doubt many people know or care if Schenectady is in the district vs. anywhere else that a candidate could be from. I could see it having an impact in a primary where other R's want the guy defeated so they can win in the next round, but all the county committees did just agree to nominate him without a Bud Shuster-type situation, so he seems solid.

All true. Although the district is much more cohesive than you suggest. It's the eastern Albany suburbs. It just happens to have some weird appendages south of Albany and stretching way up north.

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Murphy runs an ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E

Solid introductory ad. Played up the strengths of his business career, which makes it difficult to attack, and he definitely struck the right chord for any race upstate (stop our decline, dammit!). Anything from Tedisco yet?

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You wanted excitement, here's, well, a poll. From Siena College:

Jim Tedisco (R) - 46
Scott Murphy (D) - 34

Tedisco's favorables are 47/20, Murphy's are 29/10.

See, here's the problem.

Nobody knows who the fu ck Murphy is. If he doesn't change that, game over.

True. Of course, Siena College is worse than average for a college polling outfit. They had the poll with McCain ahead in NY IIRC.

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If Tedisco wins, Paterson can probably kiss my primary vote goodbye, that is if he even runs.

What a stupid reason to vote against someone.

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Finally, Scott manages to get Kirsten to cut an ad for him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-rMv4oBY70&eurl

Oooh, it's awn now!!

lol this was always going to happen.

Not if you were one of the people commenting on this thread a month ago. Whether it is a significant development is something else, of course.

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HE FINALLY ADMITS IT!

Does this really hurt in that district?

Probably. This is not an economically conservative district. Technically there are some suburbs, but they're the most Democratic parts (save Essex County).

How much is a completely different question. Probably not much.

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Is the Times Union usually liberal? Or is this actually surprising?

A quick search reveals that the Albany Times Union endorsed Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008. So not too surprising. The Albany Democrat Herald would be more interesting, having endorsed Bush and McCain, but I assume they will endorse Tedisco if anyone.

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lol

http://www.legislativegazette.com/day_item.php?item=780

Today at 6 A.M. the polls opened for voters to come cast their ballot for the 20th Congressional District special election. In Chatham, Columbia County, a part of the 20th, voters seemed to be favoring Democratic candidate Scott Murphy over Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco, R-Schenectady, but not by a large margin.

Of the 22 voters surveyed in Chatham, 14 people voted for Murphy and eight chose Tedisco. “I voted for Scott Murphy,” Chatham resident Ed Pawling told the Legislative Gazette. When asked why he chose the Democrat over Tedisco he said he “believes in his polices and what he stands for.”

How... useless.

Columbia County is the most Democratic part of the district, but I'm not sure if the Democratic-ness extends beyond the Hudson area (Hudson is a town, appropriately on the Hudson, and a big artist colony), which may be the driving force behind Democratic strength in the county (and so Chatham could be a less Democratic town).

Of course, a tiny sample means nothing anyway.

Btw, the towns surrounding Chatham are hilariously Dutch: Kinderhook, Schodack, Nassau, Ghent, and Austerlitz (and Canaan, damned Reformed tradition).

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It appears Norm Coleman has given birth to a whole new level of sleaze in elections.

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Anything from Saratoga now seems to be helping Murphy...

Not all of it, but it's not helping Tedisco, either. But Columbia is.

In any case, the result tonight will clearly be too close to call. We'll have to wait for military absentees and also for provisional votes and a very likely recount.

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This result is kind of insane. Bring on the provisional ballots/military absentee ballots/multiple recounts.

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Take this as you like. Dailykos claims Tedisco is challenging every ballot from a voter with a 2nd home in the district in Columbia county, which may be depressing Murphy's total by as much as 100.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/9/718067/-NY-20:-Urgent-distress-call-from-Columbia-County

They'll be counted eventually, so it really doesn't matter. It's not like they are being thrown out, they are being put aside for now.

Yes, but if it artificially makes the race close, it provides cover for a future lawsuit. Which is probably the point.

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Yikes, Tedisco will drag this race out for many months (just like Coleman).

No. The national party has no incentive to throw money at this race after the counting and recounting is done.

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We're a republic.

There is no contradiction.

That's not what democracy means.

It certainly is. This was a public vote, which is democracy. Now, the governmental system is republican, not democratic. But the elections are democratic as the people are the ones doing the voting. A republican electoral system wouldn't make any sense; what would that even mean? The Electoral College might be a kind of republican electoral system, I suppose, as could be the election of a Prime Minister in parliamentary systems of government, but certainly standard elections are not.

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Murphy leads by 365.


Murphy 79, 951
Tedisco 79, 586


Essex and Warren county updates.

I think that if Tedisco drags this out it only hurts him in the long run (if he has intentions of running in '10).

He is just pathetic. It is time for him to move on.

He has NO CHANCE of winning. Give it up now. Why are Republicans wasting money on this?

He's not wasting money. These ballots have not been counted yet. Don't you agree that all ballots should be counted?

Well, he should concede. That doesn't mean the rest of the ballots don't get counted. They counted the rest of the ballots in the Presidential election for over a month afterward even though McCain had the grace to concede when it was clear he'd lost.

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Murphy leads by 365.


Murphy 79, 951
Tedisco 79, 586


Essex and Warren county updates.

I think that if Tedisco drags this out it only hurts him in the long run (if he has intentions of running in '10).

He is just pathetic. It is time for him to move on.

He has NO CHANCE of winning. Give it up now. Why are Republicans wasting money on this?

He's not wasting money. These ballots have not been counted yet. Don't you agree that all ballots should be counted?

Well, he should concede. That doesn't mean the rest of the ballots don't get counted. They counted the rest of the ballots in the Presidential election for over a month afterward even though McCain had the grace to concede when it was clear he'd lost.

Oh I absolutely agree. But to say that he is wasting money making these ballots get counted is just ludicrous.

That's not what ucscgaldamez is saying. The waste of money is on the court cases, and that is a waste of money. He doesn't need to be filing suits to make the votes be counted. They're always counted.

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I don't think the candidate with the worst fundraising this quarter, despite him quitting the legislature just so he wouldn't be subjected to fundraising limits, is the leading candidate...

Geography is what matters, not fundraising. Or perhaps demographics (particularly education) is a better description than geography. Either way, McAuliffe is in a surprisingly tight spot and will probably not win the nomination.

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Probably the odds-favorite to become Scott Murphy's challenger in 2010 is Betty Little

Omg. I looked up this person and I learned that there's a Peru in upstate New York.

!!!!!!

Clearly, you've never been to Maine:

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Amazing. I want to live by the sign.

From what I can guess about the area, no, you really, really don't.

Lynchville (where the sign is) is north of the touristy area near the NH border. But no tourists means there's nothing to see. I've only seen the sign because of visiting my aunt and uncle who used to live further north in Bethel. I've been to most of the towns on the sign, though (at least Paris, Poland, Naples, China, Denmark and Mexico).

The sign leaves out a bunch of places, too. There's Dresden, Lisbon, Yarmouth, Belfast and a ton of others.