NY-20 Special Election

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That stuff is more relevant than registration, due to the example I noted.

[Eraserhead]

As someone who lives in the district (during part of the week anyway), I can say that almost nobody is talking about this race yet. That probably isn't a great sign for Murphy.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, what an exciting race this has been so far!

[minionofmidas]

Of course he thought there was a Republican advantage - there is.  Republicans have a large registration advantage.

And Democrats have a large registration advantage in Oklahoma. So what?

Okay. Republicans have a registration advantage and have represented the district until recently. That take care of the Oklahoma issue for you?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You wanted excitement, here's, well, a poll. From Siena College:

Jim Tedisco (R) - 46
Scott Murphy (D) - 34

Tedisco's favorables are 47/20, Murphy's are 29/10.

[Eraserhead]

You wanted excitement, here's, well, a poll. From Siena College:

Jim Tedisco (R) - 46
Scott Murphy (D) - 34

Tedisco's favorables are 47/20, Murphy's are 29/10.

See, here's the problem.

Nobody knows who the fu ck Murphy is. If he doesn't change that, game over.

[Verily]

You wanted excitement, here's, well, a poll. From Siena College:

Jim Tedisco (R) - 46
Scott Murphy (D) - 34

Tedisco's favorables are 47/20, Murphy's are 29/10.

See, here's the problem.

Nobody knows who the fu ck Murphy is. If he doesn't change that, game over.

True. Of course, Siena College is worse than average for a college polling outfit. They had the poll with McCain ahead in NY IIRC.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Tedisco is highly likely to be elected.

Not likely to be close.

[Eraserhead]

If Tedisco wins, Paterson can probably kiss my primary vote goodbye, that is if he even runs.

[Verily]

If Tedisco wins, Paterson can probably kiss my primary vote goodbye, that is if he even runs.

What a stupid reason to vote against someone.

[Beet]

If Tedisco wins, Paterson can probably kiss my primary vote goodbye, that is if he even runs.

What a stupid reason to vote against someone.

^^^^

Eraserhead will you vote against Obama in the 2012 Dem primary because Jan Brewer (R) is now Governor of Arizona?

[© tweed]

control of the Arizona executive has no direct impact on Eraserhead.  at least in theory, a House seat does.

[Beet]

control of the Arizona executive has no direct impact on Eraserhead.  at least in theory, a House seat does.

Show me a vote in Congress between now and January 2011 that is decided by one vote and you may have a point.

Also, there was talk of Napolitano knocking off McCain or pushing him to retire, that won't happen now.

[© tweed]

Show me a vote in Congress between now and January 2011 that is decided by one vote and you may have a point.

hence, 'at least in theory'

[minionofmidas]

You wanted excitement, here's, well, a poll. From Siena College:

Jim Tedisco (R) - 46
Scott Murphy (D) - 34

Tedisco's favorables are 47/20, Murphy's are 29/10.

See, here's the problem.

Nobody knows who the fu ck Murphy is. If he doesn't change that, game over.

So in other words, Murphy gets 5 points extra just for having a D next to his name.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Eraserhead lives in the district, so it's not quite the same as just another vote in the House for the enemy...

[Holmes]

Nobody knows who the fu ck Murphy is. If he doesn't change that, game over.

Don't worry, Tedisco's on that by not accepting debates!

[minionofmidas]

I think Eraserhead lives in the district, so it's not quite the same as just another vote in the House for the enemy...

He does indeed.

[Lunar]

Well, another reason probably not to care is that the Democrats are going to have a hard time gerrymandering a Republican seat to eliminate come the next census.  NY-20 is really easy to chop up should it come under Republican control.  Getting rid of NY-23 or NY-26 are harder without being forced to unload some GOP-heavy areas on vulnerable Democratic seats.  And I don't think you can throw in 30% more Democrats into Pete King's district, especially because the relative population loss is heaviest upstate.

[Eraserhead]

Yes, I live in the district for part of the week and I vote in the district and I do not want a Republican representing me in Congress again. Period.

Secondly, I didn't say that I would vote against Paterson. I may not vote at all because I don't like his likely opponent either.

Thirdly, this situation is only one of the many reasons that I'm angry with Paterson... one of the other major reasons being his drastic budget cuts that are going to greatly damage the SUNY school system among other things.

These things impact me personally. I have a stake in this fight. The situation in Arizona is interesting but it doesn't have any actual impact on me whatsoever. I hope that helps to clear things up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are usually some third-party nutters on the ballot. Vote for one of them instead.

[Eraserhead]

There are usually some third-party nutters on the ballot. Vote for one of them instead.

Perhaps, Al. Perhaps.

[Sam Spade]

E-head - if you think the budget cuts now are bad - just wait...  The states are being saved this year by the stimulus (and btw, in certain places (NY quite possibly), I think the problems will probably come back in about 6 months or so), after this year, well...

It's going to be very, very ugly.

Anyway, the poll pretty much confirms what I think about this race - Lean R.  Even if it is a crappy poll...  Btw, look at the internals, which are a tad odd, and would spell more trouble for Murphy, if true.

[Lunar]

The Independence Party, despite Tedisco's hard courting effort, despite the fact they've endorsed Tedisco in every one of his campaigns in the last twenty years, despite the fact that they endorsed the Republican against Gillibrand in 2008, endorsed Scott Murphy today.

That's worth a couple votes but is more symbolic than anything else.

[Eraserhead]

A little good news. That's nice.