So, some basic AZ math for you: nowadays, a competitive statewide Democrat will need enough votes out of Pima and Maricopa to overcome the Republican vote from the remaining counties.
Here are some real life results from recent elections. I’ll let you guess who’s who.
2020: Maricopa and Pima D+180K votes // statewide margin D+80K
2018: M+P D+90K votes // statewide margin D+20K
2014: M+P R+110K votes // statewide margin R+180K
Hobbs will obviously win Pima. Does she win Maricopa? And if so, does she have enough of a cushion out of M+P to overcome the votes from remaining counties that will eat into her advantage?
My analysis: my back of napkin math suggests Hobbs wins Pima by 60-70K votes. She’ll probably need at least a 40-50K vote advantage out of Maricopa to be in a good position. Only Sinema and Hoffman did that well in ‘18. I think she could still lose statewide with a 10-20K vote advantage in Maricopa. And if she loses Maricopa, she has no mathematical path.