Who wins Maricopa County? Who wins statewide?

[xavier110]

So, some basic AZ math for you: nowadays, a competitive statewide Democrat will need enough votes out of Pima and Maricopa to overcome the Republican vote from the remaining counties.

Here are some real life results from recent elections. I’ll let you guess who’s who.

2020: Maricopa and Pima D+180K votes // statewide margin D+80K
2018: M+P D+90K votes // statewide margin D+20K
2014: M+P R+110K votes // statewide margin R+180K

Hobbs will obviously win Pima. Does she win Maricopa? And if so, does she have enough of a cushion out of M+P to overcome the votes from remaining counties that will eat into her advantage?

My analysis: my back of napkin math suggests Hobbs wins Pima by 60-70K votes. She’ll probably need at least a 40-50K vote advantage out of Maricopa to be in a good position. Only Sinema and Hoffman did that well in ‘18. I think she could still lose statewide with a 10-20K vote advantage in Maricopa. And if she loses Maricopa, she has no mathematical path.

[Senator Incitatus]

Meant Lake/Lake, voted Hobbs/Hobbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is that going forwards, Maricopa probably votes to the left of AZ as it did in 2020. Dems are losing ground in places outside Maricopa County such as Native American lands due to depopulation, whereas fast growing Mohave and Yavapai County are becoming big vote nets for the GOP. Within Maricopa County, places like Mesa, Scottsdale, and Peoria will make it very tricky for the GOP to win the County, especially since there are certain geographic constraints that prevent suburbs from expanding much further out.

My guess is Hobbs narrowly wins Maricopa County but Lake narrowly wins statewide.

[xavier110]

My guess is that going forwards, Maricopa probably votes to the left of AZ as it did in 2020. Dems are losing ground in places outside Maricopa County such as Native American lands due to depopulation, whereas fast growing Mohave and Yavapai County are becoming big vote nets for the GOP. Within Maricopa County, places like Mesa, Scottsdale, and Peoria will make it very tricky for the GOP to win the County, especially since there are certain geographic constraints that prevent suburbs from expanding much further out.

My guess is Hobbs narrowly wins Maricopa County but Lake narrowly wins statewide.

Yes. I think your prediction is certainly possible.

There is a world where AZ becomes sort of like NV, where Maricopa margins dictate victory, a la Clark. A persistent tilt D state. Either way demographics suggest it will always be close, so long as the GOP here does not moderate.

I’m still at a loss about this race in particular. I can totally imagine Hobbs or Lake winning here — for different reasons.

[Utah Neolib]

Narrow Hobbs victory in Maricopa yet narrow Lake victory on the state level. This would be the first state-level election I know of since Napolitano in 2002 where a candidate won without Maricopa.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is that going forwards, Maricopa probably votes to the left of AZ as it did in 2020. Dems are losing ground in places outside Maricopa County such as Native American lands due to depopulation, whereas fast growing Mohave and Yavapai County are becoming big vote nets for the GOP. Within Maricopa County, places like Mesa, Scottsdale, and Peoria will make it very tricky for the GOP to win the County, especially since there are certain geographic constraints that prevent suburbs from expanding much further out.

My guess is Hobbs narrowly wins Maricopa County but Lake narrowly wins statewide.

Yes. I think your prediction is certainly possible.

There is a world where AZ becomes sort of like NV, where Maricopa margins dictate victory, a la Clark. A persistent tilt D state. Either way demographics suggest it will always be close, so long as the GOP here does not moderate.

I’m still at a loss about this race in particular. I can totally imagine Hobbs or Lake winning here — for different reasons.

I actually think that AZ long term has a better chance of becoming a likely D state than Nevada because if Republicans collapse much further in Pheonix's suburbs like Suprise and outer parts of Mesa which net them a lot of votes today, they are done for. If you think about it on the congressional district level, AZ-02 and AZ-04 alone aren't enough to carry the state for the GOP under any circumstance.

In Nevada, the GOP really doesn't have to net any votes out of Las Vegas suburbs to win statewide other than Henderson ig but Henderson is still relatively small.