PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Appearing with Trump is basically the final death knell for the Oz campaign at this point.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Appearing with Trump is basically the final death knell for the Oz campaign at this point.

"Death knell" is too far no? Trump won the state in 2016, and barely lost it in 2020. If anything it helps Oz with the base.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Did Trump even do anything to affirmatively suggest why his supporters should vote for Mastirano and Oz? Or did he just make the whole rally about himself, as usual?

Nevermind, I don't even know why I bothered asking that question.

Look for a big contrast with Biden's rally-he'll probably do much more to show Pennsylvanians why Fetterman and Shapiro are right for the state and for the interests of the nation too. I just hope he doesn't entirely focus on the future of democracy. It's absolutely important, and relevant to the gubernatorial campaign especially, but I want to see Biden owning the economic recovery and touting his accomplishments more.

Appearing with Trump is basically the final death knell for the Oz campaign at this point.

"Death knell" is too far no? Trump won the state in 2016, and barely lost it in 2020. If anything it helps Oz with the base.

With the base, that was always going to vote for him just for being a Republican endorsed by Trump? Sure.

But Oz's campaign has been one of several that has been scrubbing his website of references to abortion and Trump, that doesn't sound like he has confidence in the Trump base being all he needs.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1566227897500815360
Trump is hilarious, Oz should be calling him a stoner instead of a socialist.

I watched these clips of Trump's rally, and Trump does seem to be recapturing much of the "fire" and "spark" he had when he ran for President the first time in 2016. I can certainly understand why the base continues to remain firmly behind him, in spite of all that he has done and all that has happened over the last seven years.

Appearing with Trump is basically the final death knell for the Oz campaign at this point.

I'm of two views on this. On the one hand, Oz has struggled to consolidate the Republican base. Polls have shown that he's running a few points behind Mastriano, and many in the base do not trust Oz, considering him to be a RINO. This is because of his celebrity past, his prior policy positions, and his carpetbagging. That is to say nothing of probable Islamophobia, due to his name and religious background. So Oz needed to appear with Trump to increase their confidence in him. On the other hand, this could turn off swing voters in the Philadelphia Collar Counties that Oz needs for victory, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Fetterman ad attacking Oz, and using the image of him with Trump to that effect.

[sting in the rafters]

Fetterman must synthesize the link between Appalachian’s opiate crisis and Kensington’s. Urban Puerto Ricans swung towards Trump (or rather, Trump engaged otherwise apathetic voters) in part because he emphasized opiates+gun violence. I don’t think Oz possesses the political capital to hit Fetterman on crime however imo it’s better to sniff that out before it begins. Kenyatta said it best in the primary debate: “What about Philly”?

Just recently announced, retail theft is up 59% from last year. There have been more than 750 carjackings this year. Anybody have a nice car? Because you’re not going to have it long. More than triple the average for 2010 to 2019, and it’s heading way up, heading up in other cities that are run by Democrats also. Instead of trying to demonize half of the population, Biden and congressional Democrats should focus on stopping the killing and the bloodshed in Philadelphia and every other Democrat-run city in America, where record death and destruction is taking place every single day.

I got some Enron stock to sell y'all if you still think conservatives view the Lockean social contract (Blackstone's ratio in this particular instance) as an absolute good vis a vis merely the most convenient means (for now) to perpetuate their perceived material and sociological needs. Oz is still a clown, however Fetterman will need to substantially refute these charges if he wants NEPA's legions of Mutts Mets fans who might not buy his carpetbagger appeals.

NYT article on "Pennsylvania stakes its claim as center of the political universe":

“Perhaps no other state features as many high-stakes, competitive races, each pulsing with political currents shaping midterm campaigns across the country. The open race for governor between a right-wing political outsider and a veteran of the Democratic establishment may determine both the future of abortion rights and of free and fair elections in a large presidential swing state.”

“The personality-driven, increasingly ugly Senate contest — shaped by clashes over celebrity and elitism, crime and crudité, and a candidate’s health — could decide control of the chamber.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/us/politics/pennsylvania-midterm-elections.html

Joey’s itinerary next week includes unveiling his gun violence epidemic response in Wilkes-Barre. Likewise Trump will spend Labor Day Weekend bringing the World’s Largest Political College Football Tailgate^TM to the minor league Pens’ arena and play his Greatest Hits for the “Pennsylvania Trump Ticket’s” benefit. SCOTUS overreaches and inflation have clearly galvanized both voter coalitions and the respective parties are deploying as if they expect a neutral environment. We’re only getting started.

Eureka, at least some of you mamooks are getting with the program!

[KaiserDave]

Trump only appealing to the base is the feature, not the bug. Oz does not possess the confidence of Trump's base.

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman must synthesize the link between Appalachian’s opiate crisis and Kensington’s. Urban Puerto Ricans swung towards Trump (or rather, Trump engaged otherwise apathetic voters) in part because he emphasized opiates+gun violence. I don’t think Oz possesses the political capital to hit Fetterman on crime however imo it’s better to sniff that out before it begins. Kenyatta said it best in the primary debate: “What about Philly”?

Just recently announced, retail theft is up 59% from last year. There have been more than 750 carjackings this year. Anybody have a nice car? Because you’re not going to have it long. More than triple the average for 2010 to 2019, and it’s heading way up, heading up in other cities that are run by Democrats also. Instead of trying to demonize half of the population, Biden and congressional Democrats should focus on stopping the killing and the bloodshed in Philadelphia and every other Democrat-run city in America, where record death and destruction is taking place every single day.

I got some Enron stock to sell y'all if you still think conservatives view the Lockean social contract (Blackstone's ratio in this particular instance) as an absolute good vis a vis merely the most convenient means (for now) to perpetuate their perceived material and sociological needs. Oz is still a clown, however Fetterman will need to substantially refute these charges if he wants NEPA's legions of Mutts Mets fans who might not buy his carpetbagger appeals.

Mark Canha haunts your dreams.

[Calthrina950]

Trump only appealing to the base is the feature, not the bug. Oz does not possess the confidence of Trump's base.

Apparently, the rally attendees were more enthusiastic for Mastriano than they were for Oz, and Trump referred to Oz as "that guy" after the latter had finished giving his stump speech. I wouldn't be surprised if Oz underperforms Mastriano in the rural, heavily Republican base areas in November, while slightly outperforming him in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

[sting in the rafters]

Mark Canha haunts your dreams.

[KaiserDave]

Trump only appealing to the base is the feature, not the bug. Oz does not possess the confidence of Trump's base.

Apparently, the rally attendees were more enthusiastic for Mastriano than they were for Oz, and Trump referred to Oz as "that guy" after the latter had finished giving his stump speech. I wouldn't be surprised if Oz underperforms Mastriano in the rural, heavily Republican base areas in November, while slightly outperforming him in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

I will add that I also believe that while Oz/Trump rallies will help Oz will a lot of voters, they will not save him from his horrible approval numbers or the very easy-to-see perception that he is a fraud.

[Calthrina950]

Trump only appealing to the base is the feature, not the bug. Oz does not possess the confidence of Trump's base.

Apparently, the rally attendees were more enthusiastic for Mastriano than they were for Oz, and Trump referred to Oz as "that guy" after the latter had finished giving his stump speech. I wouldn't be surprised if Oz underperforms Mastriano in the rural, heavily Republican base areas in November, while slightly outperforming him in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

I will add that I also believe that while Oz/Trump rallies will help Oz will a lot of voters, they will not save him from his horrible approval numbers or the very easy-to-see perception that he is a fraud.

Agreed. Oz is certainly not a staunch conservative or ardent Trumpist at heart, and is only embracing Trump for his own personal and electoral gain. And that is precisely why the base distrusts him, and why he is toxic to swing voters. Republicans could have put this race away by now had they nominated McCormick or one of the row officers, like DeFoor or Garrity.

[wbrocks67]

Yes, I should have specified. This will likely help Oz a bit with the Trump votes, of course.

However, after 1/6 and since, Trump is clearly a net-negative in swing state races, and Oz's whole "possible" path was gleaming off some college+/suburban votes and him appearing with Trump at a rally (while trying to keep his distance since the primary ended with the website scrub, etc.) to me is the death knell. Trump is toxic in a ton of areas that Oz would theoretically need to win.

Given Trump's terrible summer in the news too, this makes it even easier now for Fetterman to attach Oz to Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes, I should have specified. This will likely help Oz a bit with the Trump votes, of course.

However, after 1/6 and since, Trump is clearly a net-negative in swing state races, and Oz's whole "possible" path was gleaming off some college+/suburban votes and him appearing with Trump at a rally (while trying to keep his distance since the primary ended with the website scrub, etc.) to me is the death knell. Trump is toxic in a ton of areas that Oz would theoretically need to win.

Given Trump's terrible summer in the news too, this makes it even easier now for Fetterman to attach Oz to Trump.

I'm just not sure whether Fetterman even wants to focus all too much on Trump instead of Oz himself. Sticking too much on Trump may just draw him (and other Dems) criticism for not having a specific message other than "orange man bad". It's not that he or Dems don't have a message beyond that, though the media often likes to set this narrative.

[Torie]

Is Fetterman going to get away with basically staying in hiding for the balance of the campaign?

[wbrocks67]

Is Fetterman going to get away with basically staying in hiding for the balance of the campaign?

He'll be in Pittsburgh (and Philly I think) for Labor Day parades today and is doing a rally in Montgomery County next Sunday.

You tried it though!

[Morning in Atlas]

Is Fetterman going to get away with basically staying in hiding for the balance of the campaign?

Yes

[wbrocks67]

So it looks like Fetterman's "campaign" was at the Philly parade but not Fetterman himself, so he was just out at all the Pittsburgh stuff yesterday.

Glad he's doing the rally in Montco on Sunday, but I really know I'm beating a dead horse about this - I do not want to see him (or Shapiro) take Philly for granted. Shapiro hasn't done any rallies since June, but at least he's popped up around here (did a press conference here last week). I get Fetterman loves the PGH area, but needs to make sure he gives Philly some love too. Juicing turnout out of Philly is key to a victory, and something as easy as letting Oz get 19% of the vote instead of 14% of the vote really does make the difference.

[wbrocks67]

This is just getting sad and desperate. Toomey is incredibly unliked in PA these days, and imagine doing an entire press conference simply b/c your opponent didn't want to do 5 debates with you.

https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1567158519622770688

[ultraviolet]

Fetterman needs to debate, full stop. Same as Walker in GA. The stroke excuse is bs; if he can be out on the campaign trail doing speeches, he can debate. I really don't understand his aversion to debating.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Fetterman needs to debate, full stop. Same as Walker in GA. The stroke excuse is bs; if he can be out on the campaign trail doing speeches, he can debate. I really don't understand his aversion to debating.

His aversion to debating is because he is winning?

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman needs to debate, full stop. Same as Walker in GA. The stroke excuse is bs; if he can be out on the campaign trail doing speeches, he can debate. I really don't understand his aversion to debating.

His aversion to debating is because he is winning?

Pretty much this. I agree that Fetterman should debate Oz at least once, but you can tell that Oz is still the one flailing all about this, getting so desperate as to do an entire press conference with Pat Toomey and begging Fetterman to debate. That just shows that it's getting under Oz's skin.

[wbrocks67]

Oz says he would've voted to certify the 2020 election, but would NOT have voted to impeach Trump.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1567183033115054082

[MT Treasurer]

Fetterman is currently coasting on Oz's enormous unfavorability #s and shunning any situation that would put the spotlight on him as opposed to Oz. While his staff is obviously adept at utilizing social media as a campaign tool and orchestrating highly selective campaign appearances, I feel like he is very much the type of candidate who will fade under pressure in a non-social-media setting. He’s certainly not someone who would fend off a competent GOP campaign which prioritized nationalization in a year like this, which is why I think Oz still has a chance if he rights the ship and at least manages to appear somewhat human/relatable in the process.

I also used to be skeptical of the GOP attacks on Fetterman's health/absence on the campaign trail, but I can see why some of it might resonate with voters at this point. For all the talk about Oz, Fetterman is also an extremely high-risk candidate who has to perform a delicate balancing act here.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fetterman is currently coasting on Oz's enormous unfavorability #s and shunning any situation that would put the spotlight on him as opposed to Oz. While his staff is obviously adept at utilizing social media as a campaign tool and orchestrating highly selective campaign appearances, I feel like he is very much the type of candidate who will fade under pressure in a non-social-media setting. He’s certainly not someone who would fend off a competent GOP campaign which prioritized nationalization in a year like this, which is why I think Oz still has a chance if he rights the ship and at least manages to appear somewhat human/relatable in the process.

I also used to be skeptical of the GOP attacks on Fetterman's health/absence on the campaign trail, but I can see why some of it might resonate with voters at this point. For all the talk about Oz, Fetterman is also an extremely high-risk candidate who has to perform a delicate balancing act here.

He can't appear relatable. McCormick/Fetterman have already set the narrative in that regard. I agree that Fetterman is definitely a flawed candidate in his own right and I agree he would not be able to compete against a competent gop challenger. However, that said, if this race ends up going GOP, it will be because it's a fantastic night for Republicans, not because Ozs favorability goes up, because it won't

[wbrocks67]

This kinda stuff from Toomey/Oz just comes off so desperate. Fetterman literally just sat for a 15 minute TV interview last week. His speech may not be back to 100%, but to try and say "he's not able to communicate" is just flat out objectively wrong and pretty much ableist too. They're acting as if he can't even speak 2 words at this point, which again, just makes them look wrong b/c it's not reality, but also, again, comes off ableist and offensive as if someone couldn't do their job if their speech patterns aren't great (um, hello, Susan Collins?)

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1567160978340462592