AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[henster]

I do wonder what Sinema's next move is when it becomes increasingly obvious she has no path of winning as an independent? I do believe she's a narcissist which makes her actions hard to predict.  She could still decide she has a better chance of winning by switching to Republican and beating Lake in a primary. I could see her resigning suddenly and angling for a cabinet position or ambassadorship somewhere just to save face. She is still the big X factor here.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1713010589029793853

Not a great quarter for an incumbent senator in a marquee race. The COH number is good but I think most of that was raised before she went independent.

I think she's more than likely to retire and live off her leftover campaign cash or start some foundation to keep her relevant. COH is not really that impressive when you figure she is not getting any super PAC helping her out. Both sides spent like $50M each last year in AZ.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1752535256849395712

She's not running.

She spent over $100K on fundraising consultants so this seems more like a forced retirement and not her gracefully exiting the stage. Definitely better off staying as a Dem despite her odds against Gallego.

[henster]

Hearing rumblings that Sinema may file to run in the Dem primary. I don't know if it is her floating a trial balloon but there is apparently a poll in the field listing her in primary against Gallego.

[henster]

Hearing rumblings that Sinema may file to run in the Dem primary. I don't know if it is her floating a trial balloon but there is apparently a poll in the field listing her in primary against Gallego.

Gallego would win that primary easily.

She would have $10M and the DSCC would be obligated to support her as an incumbent, I think she would make it close. Which is why I think she's seriously considering switching back.