2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[OneJ]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

[OneJ]

Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:

Lol. She knows what’s up.

[OneJ]

Please ignore King Lear, as he never really adds anything relevant to the conversation.

But I do agree with this point:

I got to say guys haven't had enough factors like retirements, fundraising #'s, candidate recruitment, and swings at the local level that we don't need to freak out over the CGB? Like back in Feburary Trump was getting good poll upticks and a R+1 poll in the MC yet I'm a blink of an eye Penn got its maps rewritten, Lamb wins, and Costello retires. It's getting late in the gane for the GOP to turn the ship around

[OneJ]

That Monmouth poll only represents a 2.88% shift from 2016 in the GOP held districts.

Then again, dems take the house if they just do 2.88% better than Hillary in every district.

Those Romney/Clinton voters are coming home due to the tax bill, so good luck with that.

So you're going to finish what King Lear started?

Push that ignore button before it’s too late. He’s already posted the same stuff over and over and is indeed pretty similar to Lear’s.

Anyways, I am pretty confident that Dems do pick up at least 30 seats.

[OneJ]

Love live the chart:

Are we really less than 200 days away from Election Day? Man time flies so fast. However, I’m still not very concerned about the Democrats underperforming though. As long as too many challengers, or none at all preferably, don’t do anything dumb that could blow tight races away I’m confident in their chances.

[OneJ]

Once again folks, PPP has a slight R-leaning bias.

[OneJ]

NRCC NE-02 poll

Bacon (R) - 48
Ashford (D) - 46

Bacon (R) - 50
Ashford (D) - 40

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-power-briefing/2018/05/16/senate-intel-committee-russia-investigation-270842

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It's Eastman at 40 not Ashford you oaf.

This. And before more of you get excited, this is an internal so take this w/ a grain of salt.

[OneJ]

BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018

https://www.twitter.com/gabriellahope_/status/999081930653077504

I hope they do exactly what he said too.

[OneJ]

DCCC Poll in KY-06:

[OneJ]

Yeah, Dems almost win an R+13 seat in AZ with a some lady and pick up R+11 PA-18 all in the last three months, but sure, the House is merely a tossup.

There is still a huge number of folks that are undecided and won't be until October at the earliest. What we've seen in every Congressional special election so far and most state special elections is that Democrats are winning over that undecided vote. The undecideds want a check on Trump. That to me is where the disconnect is.

Here’s a secret: ”undecided” voters are predictable.

[OneJ]

Cook moved VA-10 to Lean D.....Cook virtually NEVER has incumbents at anything worse than tossup.

Comstock is doomed.

http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Yup. I'm tempted to call that seat Likely D at this point.

KY-06 was also moved to Tossup by them, which makes them the first of the big 3 raters (Cook, Sabato, Gonzalez) to do so.

They should've moved KY-06 to tossup the night after primary night.

[OneJ]

Looking forward to this one:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1009166508499619840

Great! I'm especially interested in WV-03, but I'm not very worried about Manchin though.