KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Skye]

Not to be a killjoy, but the AP still hasn't called the race. I guess there are still a substantial amount of votes to be counted?

No, there aren't.

The only reason it wasn't called is because Bevin is being a sore loser.

Is that the real reason? There aren't actually any, say, absentee ballots or something? If so, they should call the race, Bevin can ask for a recount later if he wants to.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There are no votes left to count as far as I'm aware. Bevin can ask for a recount, but he'd have to convince a judge that there's sufficient reason to hold one. And even if he somehow does, 0.3 point margins are almost never overturned in recounts.

[Pericles]

A lot of people predicted Bevin wins by mid single digits. I did buy into the hype and overestimate him even more, like some other posters, but the consensus wasn't that Bevin would win by 10 points or whatever, the consensus was that Bevin would win and so that includes everything from a 0.1% Bevin win to a 20% Bevin win.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't know what they are smoking in RNC but I definitely want some of that sh**t.

https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1191940191092654081

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is a weak Prez and this race proved it and Leader McConnell is going down next yr

[Adam Griffin]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

This was non-final. I spoke to him on Monday night.

"I had this random convo with a poster and you'll just have to take my word for it so SUCK IT Atlas "

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump is a weak Prez and this race proved it and Leader McConnell is going down next yr

Democrats had these kind of results a year before the McGovern and Mondale debacles.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

"It could be [X], but it could also be [Y].  [X] happened, so the prediction was correct."  

Few pundits were anticipating either a blowout for either Bevin or Beshear, so I don't see what you're bragging about here. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Congrats for Andy Beshear and one of the worst GOP govs gone. Mr. Trump obviously isn't enough of a force to get people vote for a gov with a horrible resume.

With Bevin out, is there a chance he challenges McConnell again? It would be hilarious.

I predict Bevin is already blaming McConnell for his apparent loss.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump is a weak Prez and this race proved it and Leader McConnell is going down next yr

Democrats had these kind of results a year before the McGovern and Mondale debacles.

True! But Trump is no Richard Nixon (at least with regards to "being presidential") and he's certainly no Ronald Reagan. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump is a weak Prez and this race proved it and Leader McConnell is going down next yr

Democrats had these kind of results a year before the McGovern and Mondale debacles.

True! But Trump is no Richard Nixon (at least with regards to "being presidential") and he's certainly no Ronald Reagan. 

True enough, but the Democratic party is bound and determined to nominate a candidate to the left of McGovern on his most leftist day.

[ON Progressive]

Did anyone use the line "Kentucky Fried Bevin" yet?

This definitely makes up for someone I personally know, and don't care for (while also being a Republican) becoming my new representative in the New Jersey Assembly. I'm proud to be wrong about Kentucky. It's especially good because now I don't even have to care about the results of the Louisiana gubernatorial election. I was always going to be happy if the Democrats ended up winning at least one of the big three gubernatorial races, and now I am. I will of course be relieved at an Edwards victory on the 16th, should it happen. Virginia too provided some very satisfying results tonight, though those were much more expected. I can't even be disappointed by Mississippi either, I expected even less out of it than I did Kentucky. Sometimes low expectations can reward you with pleasant surprises. Because of those expectations, I have actually found this election night less stressful than last year's-Florida didn't ruin it. Though my own state is a tiny bit.

The burbstomping continues! I mean, sure, it may have been more of a rejection of Bevin than it was an embrace of Beshear, but it ultimately proves that prioritizing the President's ego over issues is costing Republicans and that the trends in the suburbs are real.

It's nice that this year hasn't been such a drought for Democratic electoral wins after all. I really hope that whatever shenanigans Bevin wants to pull doesn't undo this.

Honestly, this narrative kinda annoys me.  The Cincinnati burbs voted solidly R in every race, and in some races even outperformed Trump2016 (though oc slight underperformance to Romney 2012). This election is just the opposite of "trends are real". Could it be an outlier? Sure. In fact, I'd even say probably so. But there's nothing here today to indicate any real leftwards swing in the Cincinnati burbs Republicans need to be worrying about, unless they're planning to nominate Matt Bevin for Ohio Governor 2022.

Yeah, in fact, Beshears dad carried the exact same burb counties back in 2011, but with an even bigger share of the vote. Not exactly Dallas County...

Steve Beshear also won by 20 points, so of course he did. Andy did only a few points worse than his dad in those suburban counties despite that, so they’re clearly trending Democratic.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't know what they are smoking in RNC but I definitely want some of that sh**t.

https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1191940191092654081

"Reeves was down double-digits..."

The rally was on November 1st.  



Starting to think that Ronna might be lying here. 

[Brittain33]

What happened in NJ?

My guess is that Dems are receding from a high water mark after 2 years of a trifecta.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Don’t know if it was covered here but #trendsarereal for #BlueKansas at least where Wichita elects a young Democratic mayor. Possibly future gubernatorial material

[Annatar]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

Hood's performance was not bad for Mississippi. Losing 5.8% in a deep red state in an off year in this polarized electorate is very decent.

[Annatar]

Hood's performance was not bad for Mississippi. Losing 5.8% in a deep red state in an off year in this polarized electorate is very decent.

I agree that Hood did pretty well and he should be congratulated for his performance, nonetheless the election in Mississippi was pretty bad for democrats, they lost the only statewide office they had and 4 more senate seats.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hood's performance was not bad for Mississippi. Losing 5.8% in a deep red state in an off year in this polarized electorate is very decent.

I agree, Hood has nothing to be ashamed of. It was worth taking the shot with the best Democrats had to offer, even if it meant sacrificing his AG spot. I don’t know what it will take for Mississippi to ever elect another Democrat to the governorship (they’re already dead last in pretty much everything of all the states).

The only slightly disappointing result from a Democratic perspective would be the minimal gains in the VA state senate where now we have to rely on Joe Morrisey and Fairfax to not screw us. It seems Democrats left a fair amount of Clinton seats on the board. I guess it goes to show you that the “independent voice” stuff works better than campaigning primarily on being first and foremost a partisan Democrat/Republican

[wbrocks67]

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

[Gass3268]

Democrats also took control of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Lehigh counties in Pennsylvania last night.

Also a Working Families Party knocked off a Republican in the City of Philadelphia.

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1192058107364564993?s=20
 

[Annatar]

The difference is minimal, think about it like this, 21/40 is the same as 52.5/100, 55/100 is basically 22/40. Overall the results were basically the same.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Some comments on articles surrounding last night's election in Kentucky:

"Was Beshear the Democrat or Republican?"

"We (presumed Democratic poster) just took control of Kentucky's government for the first time in twenty years!!"

"Relax, Dems.  The governor of Kentucky is always a Democrat.  This was expected".

I get it.  Most folks aren't as full-bore into political science as we are here.
But still:  (exploding noise)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

2 seats flip in Senate is proportionate to 5 in House, so the results are pretty similar.

[Oryxslayer]

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

2 seats flip in Senate is proportionate to 5 in House, so the results are pretty similar.

Yeah, it's just disappointing from the  dem side since there are now two State senate seats held by the GOP where the dems now hold nearly every state house seat now. Both seats were marginal  wins by the GOP, and there are two more targets where they came close. It was expected to be the 'gimmi' of the night, and while the senate was (the two D flips were beyond the MOE) it was hoped more flips would be be on their way just like how the state house was.