United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Crick, the missing seat is Rotherham

https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799105249678143891

I guess we have a new contender for the seat with the highest Reform vote share then, though obviously they will come nowhere near to winning it.

It gave UKIP a 'useless' high share in 2015 for other reasons. Bizarre.

[Compuzled_One]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

[Duke of York]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

we will probably find out soon.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Aye, utility of endorsements is pretty weak at this point. Do wonder if the past fortnight have pushed Murdoch to the point where his empire could endorse Starmer, or if LOTO’s refusal to rule out Leveson 2, and his role in the phone hacking prosecutions has precluded that. 

Also - candidate nominations, as of 16.00, are now officially closed.

so did the Conservatives end up leaving a lot of seats without a candidate?

It's unlikely, as there are procedures for imposing a candidate at the last minute. The only way there are likely to be gaps is if somebody screwed up paperwork and there wasn't time to correct the error.

What are the procedures ? is there a list of people that can be slotted in anywhere ?

There are a few simple forms that need to be filled in - candidate details; eligibility for nomination; authorisation to use party name and logo; nominators.

Ten nominators are required. Normally you'll get party members to do this and if you're scrabbling to find a candidate you can still get the nominations and just leave the candidate name on the form blank until you get somebody.

The Conservatives have an approved candidate list and just need to call people on that list until they find a warm body willing to sign the form.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799104035418464461?t=c54mmcpmYp0qNYqyM70y...
Don't know if this is the missing seat Crick is talking about, but congratulations Kim Leadbetter

Per Crick, they found a new candidate, Laura Evans, the Tory candidate for Greater Manchester Mayor in 2021 and 2024.

[Torrain]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799099753634128305

[Compuzled_One]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799099753634128305

I do assume most of those are so anti-RUK that they can't have even played spoiler, but yeah, this ain't good for them.

[Flyersfan232]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

we will probably find out soon.

they have a electoral pact with the sdp and tuv

[TheTide]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799099753634128305

I do assume most of those are so anti-RUK that they can't have even played spoiler, but yeah, this ain't good for them.

I'm not sure it really matters anymore than it did for the Liberal Party in February 1974. The above number suggests to me that it's virtually a full slate everywhere in which they wouldn't be throwing away £500.

[Tintrlvr]

I'll say it again - what I find so interesting about the UK elections this year is that Conservatives are rightfully being punished for things. Like, this is how things are supposed to work in politics - conservatives keep messing up, and voters are reacting to that rationally.

It's such a complete difference from the U.S.

It’s the difference between a presidential system and a parliamentary system, and the difference between separation of powers and parliamentary supremacy. Voters actual hold a supreme legislature responsible for its own failings.

[Duke of York]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799099753634128305

I do assume most of those are so anti-RUK that they can't have even played spoiler, but yeah, this ain't good for them.

So Liberal Democrats as official opposition probably won’t happen?

[Torrain]

Glut of Friday polling - five Westminster VI in all:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

WeThinkPolling (6-7th June):

• LAB: 45% (-1)
• CON: 20% (-1)
• RFM: 15% (+2)
• LDM: 10% (+2)
• GRN: 5% (-1)
• SNP: 3% (=)

More in Common (5-7th June):

• LAB: 46% (=)
• CON: 25% (-2)
• RFM: 11% (+1)
• LDM: 9% (+1)
• GRN: 6% (+1)
• SNP: 3% (=)

Whitestone Insights (5-6th June):

• LAB: 42% (-2)
• CON: 22% (-2)
• RFM: 16% (+5)
• LDM: 9% (=)
• GRN: 5% (-1)
• SNP: 3% (=)

YouGov (5-6th June) :

• LAB: 41% (+1)
• CON: 19% (=)
• RFM: 16% (-1)
• LDM: 11% (+1)
• GRN: 7% (=)
• SNP: 3% (=)

Norstat UK (4-5th June, changes with 2019 election) :

• LAB: 45% (+12)
• CON: 22% (-23)
• RFM: 14% (+12)
• LDM: 10% (-2)
• GRN: 5% (+3)
• SNP: 3% (-1)

Most interesting might be YouGov's polling of Reform voters, which suggests they're digging in, and may be entirely out of reach for Sunak:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1799067054286286930

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think regardless of the result the Tories should replace the 1922 Committee as part of a complete replacement of its internal structure and procedures. (Rather fitting that about hundred years separates then from now, and before then 90 years from the Tamworth Manifesto that reinvented the Tory Party).

What would replace the 1922 Committee?

At this rate, the 2024 single taxi.

The Conservative XI? The bats could come in useful.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/jogideon/status/1799096887750119919

Read the whole thread. This unlikely to be good PR for the Cons in North Staffs. especially as the local media will almost certainly run with it.

[TheTide]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799099753634128305

I do assume most of those are so anti-RUK that they can't have even played spoiler, but yeah, this ain't good for them.

So Liberal Democrats as official opposition probably won’t happen?

Doubt it has much effect on that at all.

[South Dakota Democrat]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

Just like Biden had no chance, none at all, to win Georgia in 2020? (even when it was clear that it was possible, and even likely?)

[YL]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

I don't have one to vote against.

(Sheffield Hallam, but they're also missing the other constituencies with Sheffield in the name. This may be a localised pact with the SDP, though lots of constituencies have both standing.)

[Harlow]

I am curious for those that are in the UK/following this closely as well - is there the same type of issues over there in terms of 'ambivalence' from young voters? The same way here, far leftists and some young voters on social media try and say Biden/Trump are the same, "i'm not gonna vote for either one!!" etc etc. Are they also ambivalent about Labour and conservatives or is there less of that there?

It's probably roughly equivalent to the amount of young US voters rightly upset about our (much more entrenched) two-party system and the military duopoly.

In the UK, the Tories bear the brunt of this youth disillusionment far more than Labour. There have been some recent polls showing the Greens and Lib Dems (even Reform in some cases) ahead of the Tories among young voters, while still showing a massive lead for Labour. Meanwhile in the US, the Democrats still have sizable leads over the Republicans among young voters.

But there is also a sizable chunk of the 65+ electorate opting for Reform, with YouGov now showing them second to the Tories. So I think you could argue there is roughly equivalent disillusionment among all age groups, it just varies where that thirst for alternatives is being directed and for what reasons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A rather grim development. Apsana Begum's ex-husband is standing against her at Poplar & Limehouse. Those who are aware of... the situation... will understand, and those who aren't should be able to read between the lines.

[JimJamUK]

FWIW, it’s not really newspaper endorsements that matter but the more general and longer term tone of the paper. It’s not much use getting 1 article endorsing you if the rest of time they slag you off and praise your opponents i.e. Labour wouldn’t gain much from a Sun endorsement as the paper has otherwise been much nicer to the Tory government and will quickly become very critical of a Labour government.

[Cassius]

Mordaunt knifes Sunak in the back in her first answer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/SebGotSafeSeat/status/1799094269589758445

[beesley]

Of course this is a time when smaller party and independent candidates get some attention.

Some that have gone under the radar and hadn't been mentioned here at the time I began writing:

-Alex Salmond's ALBA Party are standing 19 candidates including their two incumbent MPs Neale Hanvey and Kenny MacAskill, and former SNP MPs George Kerevan and Corri Wilson. In addition, the party is supporting the independent Na h-Eileanan an Iar MP Angus MacNeil.
-Former Dragon's Den (Shark Tank to non-Brits) panellist and Covidiot Rachel Elnaugh is an independent in Derbyshire Dales.
-In Poplar and Limehouse, where Apsana Begum is the incumbent Labour MP and candidate, her ex-husband Ethashamul Haque is standing as an independent against her in what is likely to be a horrible campaign to witness.
-Julian Knight, elected as Conservative MP for Solihull, is an independent candidate for the successor seat of Solihull West and Shirley. After having had an investigation into him resulting in no charges, he released a statement against the party's 'smear campaign' against him as well as the lack of local candidates for the Conservative selection.
-Former Militant Labour MP Dave Nellist is standing for TUSC in Coventry East again.
-Far right, conspiracy theorist and now Russophilic party the Heritage Party is standing 40 candidates including their leader David Kurten (the former UKIP London Assembly Member) in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.
-There are 26 Rejoin EU candidates, a majority of which are in London, and what appears to be Volt candidates in Stroud and Newton Abbot so far (I looked on their website but it seems they are yet to find out about the general election...)
-There are a number of independent candidates with the name of the Youtuber and former London Mayoral candidate Niko Omilana, but Mr. Omilana himself is standing in Rishi Sunak's seat.
-Other than the five most notable nationwide parties, the continuity SDP and Workers Party of Britain have put up relatively decent slates, with a few slightly-more-known-than-average-but-still-not-that-big-names. I'll name one example: the longtime SDP member and newspaper columnist Rod Liddle is standing in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. TUSC, the Scottish Family Party and the Christian People's Alliance have fewer candidates but are in the double digits.
-I could also go into detail about the various Muslim independents but I think that would only serve an exemplary purpose - however the most recently recognisable might be Birmingham Ladywood's Akhmed Yakoob who put up a good showing in the West Midlands Metro Mayor election. There are also various independents who were previous Labour members, such as Pamela Fitzpatrick in Harrow West, who stood next door in Harrow East in 2019 but I believe was expelled from the party over links to a prescribed group. I believe the various candidates standing as the Transform Party come under that banner.
-Finally there are the usual single issue parties e.g. the Party of Women whose website consists of a single statement in opposition to transgender recognition and several more places to give them your money; the British Democrats who is probably the most openly white supremacist political party at this election; the Animal Welfare, Climate and Women's Equalities party who campaign progressively around their party's issues; Gina Miller's True and Fair Party; and finally a few parties with asinine names like 'the Consensus Party' who are too much trouble to look into.

[Cassius]

Can’t believe 15 minutes of the debate have been eaten by f’ing D-Day.

[Torrain]

Not sure if the audience have been told not to clap, or if they're just thoroughly unimpressed.
Oh - spoke too soon, Flynn got some applause for abolishing tuition fees.

Rayner seems really wooden. Flynn really seems to be getting the better of her in the economy area (even if he's using the voodoo SNP economics that produced the current austerity north of the border). The SNP get a clip for the evening, if nothing else.

"Truss bad" gets only the second round of applause of the evening.