United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[wbrocks67]

I'll say it again - what I find so interesting about the UK elections this year is that Conservatives are rightfully being punished for things. Like, this is how things are supposed to work in politics - conservatives keep messing up, and voters are reacting to that rationally.

It's such a complete difference from the U.S.

Would it be fair to say that in the UK, political parties are more like contractors who the voters hire and fire to do a job, while in the US they're more of a tribal affiliation (especially on the Republican side)?

100%. And I wonder why that it is. Even Conservatives in this era don't seem tied to any of their leaders. There's no cult like obsession with leaders, not with Sunak or Starmer or any of them. I guess in France, LePen is maybe someone who got close to Trump status but still, the U.S. seems much different than most of the world in that aspect. Not sure what makes us so much more tribalistic.

I go back to how Sunak has been embarrassed over and over by virtually everyone over there it seems. Meanwhile, you'd think Trump would be 10x more embarrassed by everyone over here but half the country believes he's God.

[TheTide]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

Unfortunately for them, the electoral system is FPTP rather than PR. Many millions could vote for them and their seat total could be derisory. The Lib Dems and their preceding equivalents know this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll say it again - what I find so interesting about the UK elections this year is that Conservatives are rightfully being punished for things. Like, this is how things are supposed to work in politics - conservatives keep messing up, and voters are reacting to that rationally.

It's such a complete difference from the U.S.

The Tories have been in power for 14 years and are only now getting their comeuppance after bullsh*tting their way through three successive elections. If the GOP had managed that the US would be over as a country.

[wbrocks67]

I'll say it again - what I find so interesting about the UK elections this year is that Conservatives are rightfully being punished for things. Like, this is how things are supposed to work in politics - conservatives keep messing up, and voters are reacting to that rationally.

It's such a complete difference from the U.S.

The Tories have been in power for 14 years and are only now getting their comeuppance after bullsh*tting their way through three successive elections. If the GOP had managed that the US would be over as a country.

True true, I always forget it's been so long of dominance.

[wbrocks67]

I am curious for those that are in the UK/following this closely as well - is there the same type of issues over there in terms of 'ambivalence' from young voters? The same way here, far leftists and some young voters on social media try and say Biden/Trump are the same, "i'm not gonna vote for either one!!" etc etc. Are they also ambivalent about Labour and conservatives or is there less of that there?

[Alcibiades]

In addition to what everyone else has said about just what poor form Sunak has shown here, it’s genuinely mind-boggling. Like I cannot think of any remotely rationally defensible thought process that could have come up with this as a good idea.

[kyc0705]

Not sure what makes us so much more tribalistic.

I would assume that the very different media environments play a role, as well as the fact that there are two-party systems and then there are two-party systems.

[Joe Republic]

Bizarre seeing hitpieces against a Conservative Party PM in publications like The Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13504037/Disbelief-military-figures-Rishi-Sunak-returned-Normandy-D-Day-events-finished-General-Election-interview-recording-ITV-News.html

And even The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/06/farage-hits-out-sunak-leaving-d-day-commemorations-early/

Does Sunak have ANY friendly press left?

I know that newspaper endorsements the day or so prior to Election Day seem to matter a fair amount in the UK (or do they, still?).  I wonder if the Mail and/or Telegraph break with their routine for this election and back Reform?

[Blair]

Bizarre seeing hitpieces against a Conservative Party PM in publications like The Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13504037/Disbelief-military-figures-Rishi-Sunak-returned-Normandy-D-Day-events-finished-General-Election-interview-recording-ITV-News.html

And even The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/06/farage-hits-out-sunak-leaving-d-day-commemorations-early/

Does Sunak have ANY friendly press left?

I know that newspaper endorsements the day or so prior to Election Day seem to matter a fair amount in the UK (or do they, still?).  I wonder if the Mail and/or Telegraph break with their routine for this election and back Reform?

Telegraph has already backed Sunak irrc; Mail might do a plague on both your houses.

What actually matters more than actual endorsements is that all papers will be more willing to give Labour the benefit of the doubt as they know who will most likely be in Government in July and they want Ministers/advisers to want to work with them.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In 2015, the Express backed UKIP, so they'd be the one to watch.

[Torrain]

Aye, utility of endorsements is pretty weak at this point. Do wonder if the past fortnight has pushed Murdoch to the point where his empire could endorse Starmer, or if LOTO’s refusal to rule out Leveson 2, and his role in the phone hacking prosecutions has precluded that. 

Also - candidate nominations, as of 16.00, are now officially closed.

[Flyersfan232]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

I mean at soem point reform will win seats if the tories keep sknking
There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

Unfortunately for them, the electoral system is FPTP rather than PR. Many millions could vote for them and their seat total could be derisory. The Lib Dems and their preceding equivalents know this.

[Duke of York]

Aye, utility of endorsements is pretty weak at this point. Do wonder if the past fortnight have pushed Murdoch to the point where his empire could endorse Starmer, or if LOTO’s refusal to rule out Leveson 2, and his role in the phone hacking prosecutions has precluded that. 

Also - candidate nominations, as of 16.00, are now officially closed.

so did the Conservatives end up leaving a lot of seats without a candidate?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Aye, utility of endorsements is pretty weak at this point. Do wonder if the past fortnight have pushed Murdoch to the point where his empire could endorse Starmer, or if LOTO’s refusal to rule out Leveson 2, and his role in the phone hacking prosecutions has precluded that. 

Also - candidate nominations, as of 16.00, are now officially closed.

so did the Conservatives end up leaving a lot of seats without a candidate?

It's unlikely, as there are procedures for imposing a candidate at the last minute. The only way there are likely to be gaps is if somebody screwed up paperwork and there wasn't time to correct the error.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799102778385781207

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799102778385781207

i wonder what this unwinnable seat is.

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799102778385781207

You can hear the sigh of relief from them. Which is not exactly impressive for an election called by their own damn PM.

[WD]

I mean most seats are unwinnable for them

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799102778385781207

That's a big mess-up; when was the last time a major part left a seat uncontested in Great Britain.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799104035418464461?t=c54mmcpmYp0qNYqyM70y...
Don't know if this is the missing seat Crick is talking about, but congratulations Kim Leadbetter

[EastAnglianLefty]

According to Crick, the missing seat is Rotherham

https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799105249678143891

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Aye, utility of endorsements is pretty weak at this point. Do wonder if the past fortnight have pushed Murdoch to the point where his empire could endorse Starmer, or if LOTO’s refusal to rule out Leveson 2, and his role in the phone hacking prosecutions has precluded that. 

Also - candidate nominations, as of 16.00, are now officially closed.

so did the Conservatives end up leaving a lot of seats without a candidate?

It's unlikely, as there are procedures for imposing a candidate at the last minute. The only way there are likely to be gaps is if somebody screwed up paperwork and there wasn't time to correct the error.

What are the procedures ? is there a list of people that can be slotted in anywhere ?

[Alcibiades]

According to Crick, the missing seat is Rotherham

https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799105249678143891

I guess we have a new contender for the seat with the highest Reform vote share then, though obviously they will come nowhere near to winning it.

[oldtimer]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

You have to remember that the Conservative party briefly ceased to exist in the end days of May just 5 years ago, so it's not as solid as you think :

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1799091605476909272?s=46&t=DjGzxV4_2K3JqT5...

[Duke of York]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

You have to remember that the Conservative party briefly ceased to exist in the end days of May just 5 years ago, so it's not as solid as you think :

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1799091605476909272?s=46&t=DjGzxV4_2K3JqT5...

if this pans out Sky News is going to be beyond entertaining to watch on July 4th.