French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

Wonder if Mélenchon gave him up as a tribute in exchange for getting away with his purge of Corbières, Garrido etc. If so he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. FI dissidents need to be fully supported.

As for Quattenens, rehabilitation is fine but I don't think it has to be in the form of a political career. Being a prominent face for an overtly feminist political movement is just not very credible at this point.

I get it and yes rehabilitating someone is different from giving him a political career. But assuming that there's nothing he can do to be fully considered an "acceptable" again is proof that even the left is fine with a permanent punitive justice system.

No, it just means we might not want to put the spotlight on someone whose behavior is not in line with our values. No one is arguing that Quattenens shouldn't be able to have a job, including in a political activism if that's where his passion lies. But he's not entitled to a seat in parliament. Being nominated as an MP is a privilege, not a right, and parties have a duty to go above and beyond the justice system to select candidates who can be the most effective representatives of their cause. This has absolutely nothing to do with the judicial system.

[Logical]

Marie-Caroline Le Pen is standing in Sarthe-4

On the poster is her sister, Marine, and her daughter's boyfriend, Bardella. Very Cosa Nostra. I wonder what nickname should the forum create for her? Panzertante?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-16/le-pen-says-she-s-ready-to-work-alongside-macron-in-france?embedded-checkout=true

"Le Pen Says She’s Ready to Work Alongside Macron in France"

 Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right, said she won’t try to push out President Emmanuel Macron if she wins the snap parliamentary election that begins later this month.
“I’m respectful of institutions, and I’m not calling for institutional chaos,” Le Pen told Le Figaro newspaper. “There will simply be cohabitation.” 

[Flyersfan232]

Marie-Caroline Le Pen is standing in Sarthe-4

On the poster is her sister, Marine, and her daughter's boyfriend, Bardella. Very Cosa Nostra. I wonder what nickname should the forum create for her? Panzertante?

are marine children involved in the party?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

[Epaminondas]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

[Flyersfan232]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

Marine has three kids all from first marriage that lasted between 1994-2000 so all are in their mid to early 20s currently

[Epaminondas]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

Marine has three kids all from first marriage that lasted between 1994-2000 so all are in their mid to early 20s currently

None are Le Pen though, French law remained conservative until recently regarding naming conventions of children to married parents.

[CumbrianLefty]

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

Wonder if Mélenchon gave him up as a tribute in exchange for getting away with his purge of Corbières, Garrido etc. If so he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. FI dissidents need to be fully supported.

As for Quattenens, rehabilitation is fine but I don't think it has to be in the form of a political career. Being a prominent face for an overtly feminist political movement is just not very credible at this point.

I get it and yes rehabilitating someone is different from giving him a political career. But assuming that there's nothing he can do to be fully considered an "acceptable" again is proof that even the left is fine with a permanent punitive justice system.

No, it just means we might not want to put the spotlight on someone whose behavior is not in line with our values. No one is arguing that Quattenens shouldn't be able to have a job, including in a political activism if that's where his passion lies. But he's not entitled to a seat in parliament. Being nominated as an MP is a privilege, not a right, and parties have a duty to go above and beyond the justice system to select candidates who can be the most effective representatives of their cause. This has absolutely nothing to do with the judicial system.

Would definitely not be happy with having a Labour MP who was/is a domestic abuser - there isn't anything censorious or indeed overly "woke" about that IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lock him up and throw away the key.

Would definitely not be happy with having a Labour MP who was/is a domestic abuser - and there isn't anything censorious or indeed overly "woke" about that IMO.

There was alleged to be a very bad one in the 2017-19 Parliament and, anyway, the person widely suspected (and we can go no further) of being said person was blocked from even being longlisted this time around, thank God.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

One of the few places in the world where I would probably be a Green voter, or possibly Generation.S for however long Hamon's party is around, even though LFI is probably closer to my actual beliefs.

It's simply grown too much of a 'one-man party' rather than an actual movement and I really despise leftist parties that use party bureaucracy in this manner.

Has there been a poll of the forum for this election? I may start one if not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has there been a poll of the forum for this election? I may start one if not.

Feel free to make a poll, but keep in mind the perimeter of some of the coalitions is still being defined at the moment. We know the left is (mostly) united, but LR is still in a weird superposition state between the Ciotti-aligned pro-RN wing and local notables who are going it alone, or in some cases actually cutting deals with the Macronists.

The candidacy deadline just expired a couple minutes ago, so the list is going to be finalized pretty soon, but it's probably gonna take until tomorrow until we're fully set.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Confirmed that LR mensheviks (I feel like that's the best way to describe them in relation to Ciotti's very Leninist approach to party matters) are running a candidate in Ciotti's constituency. Unclear who will get the official LR label, as there's once again a conflict of authority involved within the party organization. Possible this goes to court again.

[lfromnj]

In the EU elections what percent of Melenchons votes were not student or Muslim votes ?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1802398460114600209?s=46

[Velasco]

Is this Mbappe the guy who burst into laughter when someone suggested him that private jets are not eco-friendly?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this Mbappe the guy who burst into laughter when someone suggested him that private jets are not eco-friendly?

Yep. Also the call to vote against generic "extremists" is more of an echo of Macronist rhetoric which for the past few years has been both-sidesing between RN and FI (and sadly they seem to have actually convinced their electorate that Mélenchon is just as dangerous as Le Pen). So this is very unlike Marcus Thuram's statement yesterday which actually singled out RN as the real threat.

In the EU elections what percent of Melenchons votes were not student or Muslim votes ?

I mean, hard to say exactly, but almost certainly more than half. While those two groups are among the strongest for FI, they're also small minorities. FI couldn't have polled as high as 10% out of those two groups only, especially in a low-turnout election.

[Agafin]

Mbappe is an elitist multimillionaire, I don't think the working class people who vote RN will care about what he has to say.

And yeah, that is more of a pro-Renaissance endorsement than an anti-RN one since he uses the same Macronist rhetoric of both-sidesing RN and LFI.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is this Mbappe the guy who burst into laughter when someone suggested him that private jets are not eco-friendly?

Yep. Also the call to vote against generic "extremists" is more of an echo of Macronist rhetoric which for the past few years has been both-sidesing between RN and FI (and sadly they seem to have actually convinced their electorate that Mélenchon is just as dangerous as Le Pen). So this is very unlike Marcus Thuram's statement yesterday which actually singled out RN as the real threat.

In the EU elections what percent of Melenchons votes were not student or Muslim votes ?

I mean, hard to say exactly, but almost certainly more than half. While those two groups are among the strongest for FI, they're also small minorities. FI couldn't have polled as high as 10% out of those two groups only, especially in a low-turnout election.

How do Muslims usually vote in France, anyway?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

One of the few places in the world where I would probably be a Green voter, or possibly Generation.S for however long Hamon's party is around, even though LFI is probably closer to my actual beliefs.

It's simply grown too much of a 'one-man party' rather than an actual movement and I really despise leftist parties that use party bureaucracy in this manner.

Has there been a poll of the forum for this election? I may start one if not.

I'll be making one for the "elections of 2024: you decide" series

[Antonio the Sixth]

How do Muslims usually vote in France, anyway?

Most of them don't. Those who do, mostly FI.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How do Muslims usually vote in France, anyway?

Most of them don't. Those who do, mostly FI.

Muslims are uniquely apolitical. Which is very unfortunate. This gives the far-right a lot of undeserved influence.

[Hash]

How do Muslims usually vote in France, anyway?

In 2022, Muslims voted heavily for Mélenchon - 69%, versus 14% for Macron (and 7% for Le Pen), according to an Ifop study at the time. This year, again according to a recent Ifop study, 62% for Muslims voted LFI (against 11% for 'others', 8% for the PS and 6% apiece for macronismo and the RN). Of course, the war in Gaza (a major issue for Muslim voters, and an issue which was a big part of the LFI campaign) certainly helped mobilize the Muslim vote (to a certain extent - only 40% of them turned out) for LFI much more than in 2014.

Historically the Muslim vote was solidly Socialist - it voted over 85% or so for Flanby over Sarkozy in the runoff in 2012 - though always with an above-average vote for parties further left, like Mélenchon in 2012. In 2017, the left remained dominant among Muslims - with 37% for Mélenchon and 17% for Hamon (who was accused by the right of being permissive towards certain Muslim cultural practices and so-called 'communautarisme') - but Macron captured a significant chunk of it (24%). By 2022 Macron had lost most of that, in good part because of the government's campaigns against 'political Islam', 'islamo-leftism' (much of it politically targeted at LFI, accused of complacency and tolerance towards radical Islam) and Islamic 'separatism' (culminating in the adoption of the 'separatisms law' in 2021).

But the Muslim vote is also often characterized by low turnout (even in high-turnout presidential elections), particularly in lower-turnout elections like municipal elections, which means that it isn't particularly 'reliable' for the left in all circumstances. Moreover, in local elections, particularly in 2014 and 2020, amidst extremely low turnout (particularly in the Covid-contaminated 2020 elections), the Muslim vote hasn't been as exclusively left-wing as in presidential elections - some of it has gone to the centre-right (in Drancy and Bobigny in the 93, crooked centre-right politician Jean-Christophe Lagarde and his clique set up a clientelist machine, in tacit alliance with certain Muslim community associations and Islamist groups).

[rob in cal]

Any regions stand out as having lots of marginal districts?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

How do Muslims usually vote in France, anyway?

In 2022, Muslims voted heavily for Mélenchon - 69%, versus 14% for Macron (and 7% for Le Pen), according to an Ifop study at the time. This year, again according to a recent Ifop study, 62% for Muslims voted LFI (against 11% for 'others', 8% for the PS and 6% apiece for macronismo and the RN). Of course, the war in Gaza (a major issue for Muslim voters, and an issue which was a big part of the LFI campaign) certainly helped mobilize the Muslim vote (to a certain extent - only 40% of them turned out) for LFI much more than in 2014.

Historically the Muslim vote was solidly Socialist - it voted over 85% or so for Flanby over Sarkozy in the runoff in 2012 - though always with an above-average vote for parties further left, like Mélenchon in 2012. In 2017, the left remained dominant among Muslims - with 37% for Mélenchon and 17% for Hamon (who was accused by the right of being permissive towards certain Muslim cultural practices and so-called 'communautarisme') - but Macron captured a significant chunk of it (24%). By 2022 Macron had lost most of that, in good part because of the government's campaigns against 'political Islam', 'islamo-leftism' (much of it politically targeted at LFI, accused of complacency and tolerance towards radical Islam) and Islamic 'separatism' (culminating in the adoption of the 'separatisms law' in 2021).

But the Muslim vote is also often characterized by low turnout (even in high-turnout presidential elections), particularly in lower-turnout elections like municipal elections, which means that it isn't particularly 'reliable' for the left in all circumstances. Moreover, in local elections, particularly in 2014 and 2020, amidst extremely low turnout (particularly in the Covid-contaminated 2020 elections), the Muslim vote hasn't been as exclusively left-wing as in presidential elections - some of it has gone to the centre-right (in Drancy and Bobigny in the 93, crooked centre-right politician Jean-Christophe Lagarde and his clique set up a clientelist machine, in tacit alliance with certain Muslim community associations and Islamist groups).

Same pattern as in all of Europe. And Gaza drives turnout and pushes them more towards left-populist parties.