United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Torrain]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but this is a really good interactive quiz to see who you support as it actually puts the party manifestos up against one another in a one on one manner.  It might remind some people of a dentist visit though.

https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1804160343708442815

SNP on tax
Labour on health and immigration
Tory on defence.

Never beating the allegations that my vibe is just “social democracy… with nukes”.

[Torrain]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

"Workers of the world unite! The only thing you have to lose is your chains!" - woman who lives in a castle

[JimJamUK]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

I thought this was a f**king joke!! 😂😂😂😂😂

[adma]

I don't believe Labour's vote will go down by as much as 12% in Starmer's seat but the two polls perfectly illustrate how the 40% headline national voting intention actually masks how much more efficient the Labour vote has become.

Though such a drop *is* plausible in a dead-cat-bounce way; that is, his reelection's such a foregone consequence that voters feel freer to "vote their conscience"--not to mention that both Tory and LD are down as well; instead, it's Green and a high-profile independent carving out the bottom.  (All that high Green polling has to play out *someplace*)

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

Comrade Rowling

[Blair]

Has been noted again that the Prime Minister is campaigning (well at some sort of fete) in his own seat.

Really really not a good sign; especially as it has never been considered a marginal.

Note the cultural difference between the parties on this: it has always been considered normal and proper for senior Labour figures to do a bit in their own constituencies (no matter what canvassing shows), but that has tended not to be the case for the Tories.

Ha yes it is a bit like a reclusive bishop or Duke turning up; you immediately go 'oh god what's happened to cause this'.

On this note, my dad randomly encountered Ted Heath at a fete (or something along these lines) in 1971. A few years before, Harold Wilson turned up out of the blue (red?) in the street he was living in to visit a local Labour Party bigwig who was living a few doors down. Not situations in which it is easy to imagine Trump or Biden (or Nixon or LBJ, to use the era-equivalent figures) is it?

A chance to repeat my favourite story.

Ted Heath died without children (or a spouse ofc!) and left an estate worth £5 million- but only gave £2,500 to his poor housekeeper. A truly remarkable man

[CumbrianLefty]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Given the almost ludicrous hype around him in certain quarters, that is genuinely hilarious

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Survation poll of Richmond:

Conservative 39%
Labour 28%
Reform 18%
LD 9%
Green 4%
Other 3%

That's a 24 point drop in the Tory vote.

Constituency poll in Rishi Sunak’s Richmond & Northallerton seat

I was wondering why the Lib Dems are not higher...

That is a poll of Richmond and Northallerton (Suank's seat in North Yorkshire), not Richmond Park (in SW London)

Also btw, that constituency result in Richmond and Northallerton is extremely close to what the most recent Yougov MRP has there (41% Con, 26% Labour, 10% Lib Dem, 17% Reform)

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49809-second-yougov-2024-election-mrp-shows-conservatives-on-lowest-seat-total-in-history

[Duke of York]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Considering my opinion of Starmer i'd like to see it be even lower if not losing.I know it won't happen but how crazy would it be if both Sunak and Starmer lost their seats?

[oldtimer]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Considering my opinion of Starmer i'd like to see it be even lower if not losing.I know it won't happen but how crazy would it be if both Sunak and Starmer lost their seats?

Not going to happen with Starmer, I'm certain about Sunak for years now.

Labour do have problems in inner cities and the red wall, perhaps they could lose Leicester East to Vaz or North Durham or even Barnsley on the extremes.

But unlike 2015 and 2019, the destruction of the Tory party and the SNP is masking it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The general sentiment is that things are going quite nicely in postindustrial constituencies, as a broad category or sets of categories, for whatever that is worth.

[JimJamUK]

Never beating the allegations that my vibe is just “social democracy… with nukes”.

Jackie Baillie 4 First Minister?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

surely if you want more density, you'd rather people rezone single family housing vs creating mcmansions in suburban sprawl in a natural area.

Britain don't use zoning fwiw

Indeed, the British version of YIMBY zoning repeal is reforming/repealing the Town and Country Planning Act, which is not remotely mainstream.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

I thought this was a f**king joke!! 😂😂😂😂😂

Rowling herself has become a joke. Is there anyone on Earth who as quickly pissed away as much good-will they've earned over decades than her?

[RBH]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but this is a really good interactive quiz to see who you support as it actually puts the party manifestos up against one another in a one on one manner.  It might remind some people of a dentist visit though.


https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1804160343708442815

maybe I shouldn't have picked so much off of large numbers because I ended up with Green on 3 of 4 issues and SNP on Defence.

[GoTfan]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

I thought this was a f**king joke!! 😂😂😂😂😂

Rowling herself has become a joke. Is there anyone on Earth who as quickly pissed away as much good-will they've earned over decades than her?

Somehow I think even Ianucci would look at this and think "No, this is too ridiculous for TV."

[RBH]

Have we done “JK Rowling endorses the Communist Party because they’re the only ones with a gender policy she agrees with” yet?

Cut to JK Rowling deciding between the Communists and George Galloway for which would be the more respectable pick

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Just seen something about how well Davey is presenting the Lib Dems as a 'left-wing alternative' to Labour. For goodness sake, Davey is probably the most right-wing leader they have had under the party's current name (i.e. from 1988 onwards).

At the very least, he’s clearly to Clegg’s left.

I would probably say Swinson’s as well, given the completely anti-Tory messaging and the focus on modest tax increases to pay for social care policies (albeit at a massively underestimated cost).

Even if the leadership was more right wing than Clegg’s, the messaging would be more anti-Tory than last time because this is where the (winnable) votes are.

This manifesto, unlike the 2017 one, has no mention of Land Value Tax, except for businesses. It commits to more house-building than any of its rival documents, but there would probably be no national target if conference had not overruled the leadership’s proposal to scrap it. I personally trust Davey over Swinson, but I’m not sure the proposals are more left-wing than 2019’s.

It is still the most detailed/costed of the manifestos this year, but shockingly light on commitments for a LD document. That’s in line with the general trend for all party manifestos this election: fewer public plans to use policy X to address problem Y, more promises to set up a review to solve Y. This means less political capital to use policy X, should a party promising a review find itself in office.

The voters have long lacked faith in the parties to deliver change, but I don’t think the parties themselves have ever been so lacking in self-confidence. The Lib Dems say they will “review” restoring the northern leg of HS2, a project confounded by reviews; the rest of the parties don’t even pretend to believe it could be built.

[Cassius]

It’s not really surprising that the parties lack self-confidence in promising big commitments in their manifestos, given the generally negative reaction to Labour’s big spending plans in 2019 and the way in which the Conservatives’ 2017 campaign was holed beneath the waterline by the proposed changes to social care. In addition, I think the way in which the markets attacked the pound and UK gilts in the aftermath of the Truss mini-budget will have given all parties a significant pause for thought over the feasibility of major spending commitments that can only be funded by borrowing (given the absolute refusal of any party to broach doing anything more than tinkering around the edges with the tax system to squeeze out a few extra billion here and there).

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/CPBritain/status/1805010605973049684

Lmao

[GoTfan]

This just gets funnier and funnier

[Zinneke]

We know that witch will vote Reform UK anyway.

[TheTide]

We know that witch will vote Reform UK anyway.

I doubt it. She'd be a 'tactical' voter of some kind (anti-SNP?).

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1805240223996993833

I've avoided sharing tweets just because I find their content to be interesting, but I'll allow myself this one.