United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804271596280123398

Is there anything wrong with the world that isn't the fault of the EU in Nigels mind?

Sounds like a good way to get the 17% which say that the war is more NATO's fault or blame NATO/Russia equally.  And there are 28% who are undecided on this topic.  More importantly, this is a way to cut into the Labor vote since 17% of the Labor vote seems to have that position "is more NATO's fault or blame NATO/Russia equally."  Farage will have to fight Galloway for that vote since that 17% is very likely to be pro-Palestine.  


https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1493982060033327104

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clown.

[afleitch]

Reform are the sort of party that even if they win a dozen MPs won't last the parliament. And not because of an official union with the Tories but because it's a party for people who shouldn't be allowed to run a summer fête and are likely to split over the most niche of issues.

The Tories should be hoping Reform do win seats so the collapse can be televised.

[TheTide]

An obvious form of treating could be widespread on the 4th of July if the weather is particularly hot. 

[Conservatopia]

I'm normally a postal voter but I'll be waiting until election day to vote in case one of the parties bribes me with a Magnum.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Reform are the sort of party that even if they win a dozen MPs won't last the parliament. And not because of an official union with the Tories but because it's a party for people who shouldn't be allowed to run a summer fête and are likely to split over the most niche of issues.

The Tories should be hoping Reform do win seats so the collapse can be televised.

They're also the sort of people likely to fall victim to the recall process in disproportionate numbers.

[Yelnoc]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but this is a really good interactive quiz to see who you support as it actually puts the party manifestos up against one another in a one on one manner.  It might remind some people of a dentist visit though.


https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1804160343708442815

Thank you so much for this, it appears if I lived in the UK I would be a Plaid Cymru voter (gave me a good chuckle). I know no British poster wants to hear this, but I do apparently have an ancestor from Wrexham...

[TheTide]

Just seen something about how well Davey is presenting the Lib Dems as a 'left-wing alternative' to Labour. For goodness sake, Davey is probably the most right-wing leader they have had under the party's current name (i.e. from 1988 onwards).

[afleitch]

The Build-a-voter tool is fun. It's demographics based.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/build-a-voter

Which correctly identified me as part of a demographic that's still a likely SNP voter.

[Alcibiades]

Just seen something about how well Davey is presenting the Lib Dems as a 'left-wing alternative' to Labour. For goodness sake, Davey is probably the most right-wing leader they have had under the party's current name (i.e. from 1988 onwards).

At the very least, he’s clearly to Clegg’s left.

[JimJamUK]

Just seen something about how well Davey is presenting the Lib Dems as a 'left-wing alternative' to Labour. For goodness sake, Davey is probably the most right-wing leader they have had under the party's current name (i.e. from 1988 onwards).

At the very least, he’s clearly to Clegg’s left.

I would probably say Swinson’s as well, given the completely anti-Tory messaging and the focus on modest tax increases to pay for social care policies (albeit at a massively underestimated cost).

[TheTide]

Just seen something about how well Davey is presenting the Lib Dems as a 'left-wing alternative' to Labour. For goodness sake, Davey is probably the most right-wing leader they have had under the party's current name (i.e. from 1988 onwards).

At the very least, he’s clearly to Clegg’s left.

Clegg wouldn't have such a right-wing reputation (although he was firmly an Orange Booker) if he hadn't led the party into government. Having said all of this, Farron was probably the most left-wing, so maybe this doesn't mean all that much.

Obviously David Laws would have claimed this title if he had ever become leader.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Fun little calculator about setting taxes and spending: https://ifs.org.uk/election-2024/be-chancellor

[Blair]

Just seen something about how well Davey is presenting the Lib Dems as a 'left-wing alternative' to Labour. For goodness sake, Davey is probably the most right-wing leader they have had under the party's current name (i.e. from 1988 onwards).

A lot of people make the mistake of assuming that the Liberal manifesto is actually a plan for government & equally confuse 'left wing' with 'left-liberal'.

The Lib Dems for example oppose putting VAT on private school fees for example.

[Blair]

Has been noted again that the Prime Minister is campaigning (well at some sort of fete) in his own seat.

Really really not a good sign; especially as it has never been considered a marginal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has been noted again that the Prime Minister is campaigning (well at some sort of fete) in his own seat.

Really really not a good sign; especially as it has never been considered a marginal.

Note the cultural difference between the parties on this: it has always been considered normal and proper for senior Labour figures to do a bit in their own constituencies (no matter what canvassing shows), but that has tended not to be the case for the Tories.

[beesley]

Lazy comment especially given I haven't provided any sense of quantity I think there are lots of people to the left of centre who knowingly or otherwise will prefer some parts of the Lib Dem manifesto and some parts of the Labour one (as I do), though the reality of politics is not as akin to ISideWith as that suggests. It's been mentioned that the Lib Dems have a bit more flexibility as their manifesto isn't a plan for government but their position has also allowed it to be a little more overtly targeted to certain parts of the country/electorate.

[Blair]

Has been noted again that the Prime Minister is campaigning (well at some sort of fete) in his own seat.

Really really not a good sign; especially as it has never been considered a marginal.

Note the cultural difference between the parties on this: it has always been considered normal and proper for senior Labour figures to do a bit in their own constituencies (no matter what canvassing shows), but that has tended not to be the case for the Tories.

Ha yes it is a bit like a reclusive bishop or Duke turning up; you immediately go 'oh god what's happened to cause this'.

Lazy comment especially given I haven't provided any sense of quantity I think there are lots of people to the left of centre who knowingly or otherwise will prefer some parts of the Lib Dem manifesto and some parts of the Labour one (as I do), though the reality of politics is not as akin to ISideWith as that suggests. It's been mentioned that the Lib Dems have a bit more flexibility as their manifesto isn't a plan for government but their position has also allowed it to be a little more overtly targeted to certain parts of the country/electorate.

Also to be blunt the people who make these comments about the liberals being left wing & do these tests tend to be higher engaged politically active people of a certain age- issues like voting reform & climate change mean a lot more & matter more so in their view than things like reforming trade union laws, or increasing the number of NHS dentists.

It does remind me that we will be seeing a return to the 2000s Labour-Liberal divide & fight...

[TheTide]

Has been noted again that the Prime Minister is campaigning (well at some sort of fete) in his own seat.

Really really not a good sign; especially as it has never been considered a marginal.

Note the cultural difference between the parties on this: it has always been considered normal and proper for senior Labour figures to do a bit in their own constituencies (no matter what canvassing shows), but that has tended not to be the case for the Tories.

Ha yes it is a bit like a reclusive bishop or Duke turning up; you immediately go 'oh god what's happened to cause this'.

On this note, my dad randomly encountered Ted Heath at a fete (or something along these lines) in 1971. A few years before, Harold Wilson turned up out of the blue (red?) in the street he was living in to visit a local Labour Party bigwig who was living a few doors down. Not situations in which it is easy to imagine Trump or Biden (or Nixon or LBJ, to use the era-equivalent figures) is it?

[Joe Republic]

I'm normally a postal voter but I'll be waiting until election day to vote in case one of the parties bribes me with a Magnum.

Here in the US, if a campaign worker showed up at my door waving a Magnum in my face, I suppose I might feel adequately pressured into supporting their cause.


(This post applies regardless of whether we're talking about ice cream, handguns, or condoms.)

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

The Build-a-voter tool is fun. It's demographics based.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/build-a-voter

Which correctly identified me as part of a demographic that's still a likely SNP voter.

It seems the key to making a Tory voter is to make them be age 75+.

Very difficult to get a Tory otherwise. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Survation poll of Richmond:

Conservative 39%
Labour 28%
Reform 18%
LD 9%
Green 4%
Other 3%

That's a 24 point drop in the Tory vote.

[YL]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

[Torrain]

Reform are the sort of party that even if they win a dozen MPs won't last the parliament. And not because of an official union with the Tories but because it's a party for people who shouldn't be allowed to run a summer fête and are likely to split over the most niche of issues.

The Tories should be hoping Reform do win seats so the collapse can be televised.

100% - if UKIP’s defection rate is anything to go by. Losing MEPs to Veritas (lol), the Brexit Party, the literal punch-ups in Brussels - and not to mention the complete shambles in their Senedd group. Not sure they ever beat Heidi Allen’s record for defections in a single parliamentary session, but Mark Reckless must have come close.

[Logical]

I don't believe Labour's vote will go down by as much as 12% in Starmer's seat but the two polls perfectly illustrate how the 40% headline national voting intention actually masks how much more efficient the Labour vote has become.