Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

None of this will matter in a week from now

Putin basically went from "we're gonna punish the backstabbing traitors" to "we're gonna drop all the charges against Prigozhin and he's free to leave the country" within the matter of 12 hours or something.

He looks like a complete fool.

[NOVA Green]

I'll post this on the Russia-Ukraine War thread and probably cross-post to the other thread as well..

Here are the estimated casualty figures from Russian military sources.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672710785632550914?s=20

[John Dule]

Iran and China seem to be the only BRICs powers to be anywhere near competent.

Most geopolitically literate communist.

[Torie]

OK, now that the soap opera featuring the twin thugs with the same mindset but different sartorial presentations is over, what impact if any might the exit from the stage and his "army" of expendable jail birds under his direction have on the war? Who will fill the void for the meat grinder?

I ask, because the press has not addresses this particular query of my brain.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Shteyngart/status/1672691966969012224?s=20

[Red Velvet]

Do even 20% of Red Velvet posts in this thread involve Russia-Ukraine in any way?

Peace discussions were a main point of the meeting. Though neither Russia or Ukraine were present there.

The context behind Europe even having this “New Global Pact” meeting in the first place was because of non-alignment from the South. The South African response is a response about this increasing distancing.

[Storr]

Rest of tweet:

"From both external and internal perspectives, Putin's image has weakened, reminiscent of the Japanese emperor during the Sengoku period. Similar to a symbolic figure, the emperor held nominal power while warring samurai clans vied for control over Japan.

Though Putin still wields undeniable power, it is evident that he has lost control over the situation, resulting in a significant crack in his perceived ability to exert authority and manage internal affairs. Additionally, Putin had to rely on the intervention of a foreign leader (Belarus) to resolve the internal conflict.

These events highlight the potential use of military force against Putin's government as a means to coerce acceptance of terms, although the details of the arrangement between Prigozhin and Putin-Lukashenko remain undisclosed. If a replacement occurs within the top military command, it would only reinforce such behavior.

Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.

The relatively swift movement of Wagner forces from Ukraine to Moscow within a span of less than a day, coupled with the chaotic attempts to destroy bridges and hastily dig ditches near Moscow, have laid bare the unpreparedness of the system to face a genuine threat.

It has been intriguing to witness the involvement of various groups, including the Club of Angered Patriots led by Strelkov, the Rusich neo-Nazi military unit, and the Kadyrovites, aligning themselves with different factions within the conflict. This development reveals a landscape that hints at the potential for a future civil war,

While the immediate repercussions of the current events will become apparent in the coming weeks, it is crucial to recognize that we are merely at the inception of something far more significant. The unfolding situation carries profound implications that extend beyond the present moment."

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1672682134341861376?s=20

[Red Velvet]

So is Russia going to pretend that that didn't ever happen?

It's clear now that the Russian government can barely control its own territory, let alone territory stolen from Ukraine.

It’s one of those events that will probably have zero effect short-term but could maybe have huge effect long-term.

Even if things are the exact same for the next week or month, you can’t take out of people’s minds that this happened, even inside Russia and in a limited way. And that has an effect on the impression of their leadership.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile down in "Subvert City", someone writing on the wall "f**k the Government spray-paint hero, someone wants the state to fall"...

The Russian people are patient and had Wagner forces reached Moscow, I suspect we would have seen massive numbers of people taking to the streets against the Putin Government.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672710404932337665?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/salisbot/status/1672696145057808384

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672742514875416577?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672748516530069504?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672748516530069504?s=20

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1672761358843101186?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile within Russian Occupied Ukraine, ISW just recently updated their maps.

Suggestion would be to open in new tabs to see each individual map from the slidedeck.

We do appear to see significant Russian-Ukrainian clashes on multiple sectors on the Eastern Front, as well as places within the Southeastern Front.

I would imagine that considering Ukrainian military advantage in thermo-optics, in the event that there are significant Ukrainian offensive actions tonight (Now getting close to morning in that part of the world), we might see interesting updates tomorrow.

Since Woody Woodpecker has not been posting recent maps, strongly suggest Atlas Nation crowdsource to fill his place, especially those monitoring Russian "Mil-Blogger" related channels.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1672739645296111616?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Havoc_Six/status/1672751132400033792?s=20

[NOVA Green]

One must certainly wonder to what extent this makes it much less likely that Putin will order yet another general mobilization.

Russian Male Prison population has declined something like 20% since the start of the war in Ukraine, initially with Wagner recruits, and then later on regular Russian military recruits.

It appears to be patently clear that many of the Russian "Mobniks", are not only incapable of performing basic regular combat duties because of age and disability, etc...

Putin had deliberately held off on massive mandatory recruitment drives in the key population and political power centers of Russia for fears of sparking increased unrest within the urban cores, and instead chose to rely on ethnic minority populations, rural populations, and generally those least likely to be able to directly challenge the existing power structure.

If a relatively small number of Wagner "Soldiers of Fortunes" could basically make it practically to the capital itself, on the basis of grievances resulting from casualty losses and disrespect from the regular Russian military, one must certainly wonder what might happen in the event that a new "General Mobilization" hits at a time where Russian war weariness is already hitting major stress points.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Putin might have been aware of something going down well prior to the start of the attempted uprising of Russian War Veterans.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672781952221433856?s=20

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Prigozhin showing up at the warfront tomorrow, basically.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Iran, State Media coverage continued to support Putin.

Iran, a key ally of Moscow, followed the crisis in Russia on Saturday with minute-by-minute coverage across its news media outlets. Many Iranians wondered how the armed uprising by the Wagner mercenary group and its abrupt end would affect their lives.

Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, spoke on the phone with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, according to Iranian media.

“The recent events in Russia are an internal matter, and Iran supports the rule of law in Russia,” said the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani.

Iran’s news media called the uprising against the Kremlin an armed insurrection. Nour News, which is affiliated with Iran’s National Security Council, called it a Western-backed plot to defeat Russia in the war in Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-wagner-prigozhin-ukraine-news

[Agonized-Statism]

Prigozhin won't last too long. Putin's probably just being discretionary about it.

[NOVA Green]

US GVT allegedly knew days ago about the attempted coup to come...

American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.

U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.

In this case, the information that the long-running feud between Mr. Prigozhin, who got his start as “Putin’s chef” in St. Petersburg, and Russian defense officials was about to devolve into conflict was considered both solid and alarming. Mr. Prigozhin is known for his brutality, and had he succeeded in ousting the officials, he would likely have been an unpredictable leader.  And the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into internal chaos carried with it a new set of risks.

While it is not clear exactly when the United States first learned of the plot, intelligence officials conducted briefings on Wednesday with administration and defense officials. On Thursday, as additional confirmation of the plot came in, intelligence officials informed a narrow group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Intelligence reports released as part of the Discord leaks also showed that the United States had intercepted communications between senior Russian military leaders debating how to handle Mr. Prigozhin’s constant demands for more ammunition.

In interviews before the current crisis, U.S. officials said it was not just Wagner forces that faced supply shortages, but the entire Russian military. Those problems have plagued the Russian military for months, but American officials said earlier this week that they had become more obvious as the Ukrainian counteroffensive began.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-wagner-prigozhin-ukraine-news

Meanwhile Washington Post chimes in with a relatively similar story:

U.S. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment — which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine — and urgently informed the White House and other government agencies so they were not caught off guard, several U.S. officials said Saturday.

The exact nature and timing of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until shortly before his stunning takeover of a military command and tank run toward Moscow on Friday and Saturday, officials said. But “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up,” said one U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “So I think they were ready for it.”

Over the past two weeks there was “high concern” about what might transpire — whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability might mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the official said. “There were lots of questions along those lines,” this person said.

The instability that might result from a Russian “civil war” was the key fear, officials said. In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and in Congress were briefed within the past two weeks on the intelligence, officials said.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was “definitely more than 24 hours ago,” the first U.S. official said.

Prigozhin faced little resistance when he and his forces marched into Rostov-on-Don and took control of the Southern Military District headquarters there, Western and U.S. intelligence officials noted, calling that an indication he enjoys some level of support among regular military forces as well as Russia’s security services.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/

[NOVA Green]

Mr. Biden has been well informed in real time about current developments in Russia:

Mr. Biden responded to the crisis by not responding, opting for caution rather than speaking out, which would risk giving Mr. Putin ammunition to claim this was all a foreign plot, which is often the first line in the Kremlin playbook whenever domestic trouble arises. Mr. Biden delayed his departure for Camp David to convene a secure video briefing with top advisers in the Ward Room of the White House — a makeshift Situation Room while the real one is being renovated — and also spoke with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany.

Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, canceled a trip to Denmark meant to drum up support for Ukraine so he could accompany Mr. Biden to Camp David and conducted the planned meeting by video instead. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, likewise scrubbed a visit to Israel and Jordan. But other than reiterating American support for Ukraine, the administration remained silent, letting events play out while officials studied the intelligence for insight into what was happening.

The administration has drafted contingency plans for such a scenario for a long time, but was left scrambling on Saturday just like everyone else to get hard information out of Russia and to interpret what it meant, relying as much on social media and other online sources as traditional intelligence assets.

U.S. officials were paying special attention to Russia’s nuclear arsenal, nervous about instability in a country with the power to wipe out most of the planet. But a senior administration official said the government detected no change in the disposition of Russia’s weapons and did not change America’s nuclear posture either.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/us/politics/us-russia-putin.html

[pppolitics]

Ironically, the Russia government is now more likely to collapse than the Ukrainian government.

[2952-0-0]

I'm surprised no one has posted this here.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672497439868084224

I was gonna head to Moscow until I got high
I was gonna throw Pu'in off a window but then I got high
Now I'm headin' back to Africa and I know why
'Cause I got high
Because I got high
Because I got high