French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Oryxslayer]

Either will end up being a total success, or a total failure, no in between. And the results should not be the sole way one evaluates the outcome. Unleashing voter anger now and not later may end up benefiting Macron's successor in 2027, but we would only be able to hypothetically know that with hindsight.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is Macron calling snap elections after flopping in the Euro elections? Is he stupid?

Yes, and No, and Maybe. Jupiter is in Retrograde, hard to tell.

[Oryxslayer]

I won't pretend to know much about French politics, but am I correct in observing that an election in three weeks would be pretty bad for the left, especially with the two-round system making vote splitting (RN+LREM get into second round after PS and LFI split the left-wing vote, etc) a serious concern and PS's outstanding performance in the EU elections making Melenchon a lot less of an undisputed left-wing leader?

That's part of it of course. Macron thrives when the only alternatives are obviously characterized as extremists. Striking fast, even if it givens RN a plurality, potentially smothers any attempts at parties like PS or LR doing anything long term. This is all about maintaining narrative of stability with Macron/REM vs chaos with Le Pen or Melenchon. Either Macron's allies win and his mandate is renewed, or he loses and voters get a taste of the chaos through a (likely plurality) cohabitation that shows what happens when they "stray" from Jupiter's orbit.

[Oryxslayer]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

[Oryxslayer]

Harris poll for the snap election

Macron is such a dingus for this.

I think this poll overestimates RN seats.  I suspect there will be more anti-RN tactical voting than in 2022. 

More relevantly, we don't know if NUPES (and maybe also LR?) are going to be options. The point of flash polls is to grab attention, not exactly be accurate.

[Oryxslayer]

Les Republicans just announced they would accept a coalition deal with RN

This has been discussed for a while. IYMI, since then Ciotti has been dragged through metaphorical manure by everyone in the party, even his former allies, for unilaterally deciding to state this. At this point it's more likely he get's binned, or hypothetically things split between his few and the many closer to REM, then it actually happens.

[Oryxslayer]

Won't the incumbency bonus be enough to carry most LR incumbents into runoffs, where they'll prevail against whatever widely unpopular faction they're up against? I doubt LR sees massive losses even with this recent chaos around them

Also to note, this is kinda what LR has been cruising on since Macron got elected in 2017. But the gas is almost out in many places, and it's a problem when a retirement in almost every part of the country means a de facto loss.

[Oryxslayer]

It's hard to understand what Macron's plan was by dissolving the National Assembly when he did.

He felt the need to "do something" after the dire European results?

I mean, it was a democratic decision so I'm not criticizing him for it, but he was under absolutely no obligation to do it. Another leader might have waited to see if things would get better especially as the current legislature still had 3 years to go. Can you imagine Trudeau calling a general election because of a series of poor by-election results? It'd be a similar thing.

The big difference is of course Trudeau, Boris/Truss/Sunak, Scholz, or someone else in a similar position would personally suffer consequences for such a decision. But Macron really can't, unless he chooses to resign for whatever personal reason. So he can gamble that RN will blow up its short-term reputation like every previous legislative cohabitator, and they may not even get a result comparable to those past majorities. Or he can just call another election in 2025. Presidential powers here are supreme, thank to De Gaulle.

[Oryxslayer]

Elabe
 
Seats
RN+UXD : 250-280
NFP : 150-170
Macronista : 90-110
LR+DVD : 35-45
Others : 10-12

Turnout : 62%

Sounds like the 2022 results with the roles of RN and ENS reversed and LR splitting into pro-RN and anti-RN factors.  I wish these were going to be the results but I doubt RN will do this well.   The second round tactical vote will go against the perceived front-runner.  That hurt ENS in 2022 and this time it will hurt RN.

To some degree, it hurt LREM in 2017 as well (i.e. there was a lot of presumption that they'd be headed for an even more top-heavy legislative landslide than they managed).

Not to mention that the nature of the frontrunner might lead to a lot of reawakened "cordon sanitaire" spot strategic thinking...

That viability of this effect of course depends entirely on the number of triangulaires, which may hit a record high with large turnout and 3 clear blocks.

[Oryxslayer]

For those in France, what is the realistic chance for Bardella's list to gain an absolute majority?

Tomorrow we will be better equipped to answer this,  after understanding both the floor and the ceiling of possibilities. If both are high enough then such an outcome is very possible,  if not, then not.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe like US 2020: a lot of "the future of the country's at stake here" electoral thinking behind the heavy turnout...

I mean that very well could be the case, but remember that this is an unusual contest. For a long time the legislative elections have followed right after the presidential ones. This has suppressed turnout: everyone knows the outcome in advance so defeated voters opposed to the presidential victor see little reason to cast a useless vote. This contest though is untethered an therefore uncertain.  

The three legislative contests that then led to cohabitation all had high relative turnout,  especially when compared to what came afterwards. 1997 is the most recent point of comparison in that regard.  And this election could certainly produce change,  but whether that is a new cohabitation or something even more confusing and new will be decided today by how many candidates from each block advance to next week.

[Oryxslayer]

Sidenote: it's a shame the Tour is still in Italy today. It would have been rather interesting to see how and in what ways the national election would force it's recognition and presence into the international contest.