French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[jaichind]

I fail to see how LR survives this. The pro-Ciotti faction is probably just going to go ahead and vote RN at this point which divides the already much diminished LR party.

Will the anti-Ciotti faction then just join up with ENS then ?  Going on their own would just be doom which was the reason why Ciotti did what he did.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I fail to see how LR survives this. The pro-Ciotti faction is probably just going to go ahead and vote RN at this point which divides the already much diminished LR party.

Will the anti-Ciotti faction then just join up with ENS then ?  Going on their own would just be doom which was the reason why Ciotti did what he did.

Going on their own seems to be exactly what the bulk of the LR leadership wants to do. Although it's possible some incumbents will end up taking some help from the Macronistas, as long as it doesn't come with too many strings attached. But I agree the party is basically dead as a coherent political force.

[Sir John Johns]

Marion Maréchal ex-Le Pen is criticizing the strategy of Zemmour about running candidates against the RN and seemingly on her way to rally her aunt's party (she reportedly negotiated the RN investiture for several of her allies) followed by the rest of the recently elected Reconquête European parliamentarians excepted Zemmour's girlfriend.

https://twitter.com/MarionMarechal/status/1800930307324948672

[RGM2609]

Won't the incumbency bonus be enough to carry most LR incumbents into runoffs, where they'll prevail against whatever widely unpopular faction they're up against? I doubt LR sees massive losses even with this recent chaos around them

[rob in cal]

There could be a AN majority in favor of proportional representation after the election, but perhaps RN will discover that it actually likes the current system if it ends up winning a lot of seats under it.

[The Mikado]

Won't the incumbency bonus be enough to carry most LR incumbents into runoffs, where they'll prevail against whatever widely unpopular faction they're up against? I doubt LR sees massive losses even with this recent chaos around them

Perhaps they don't lose too many incumbents (though they're small enough that losing 10-15 seats would still be pretty devastating) but they're losing their cohesion as a party. LRs disintegrating into a bunch of de facto independents, some aligned with whatever Macron wants to be calling his party today and others aligned with whatever Le Pen is calling her party today. (It's going to be a long time before I stop typing FN and having to backspace and write RN)

[Hash]

It kind of went unnoticed with the main show over at LR, but Reconquête(!) has also kind of exploded with the conflict between Panzermiss and Zemmour, which had been brewing increasingly publicly during the campaign.

Panzermiss effectively knifed Zemmour by anointing herself as chief negotiator for the party in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to form an alliance with the RN, going around him and not telling him anything to the point that he later went on tv to say that he needed to 'harass her by text' to get the details of the agreement she wanted to negotiate. In the end, RN pulled the plug, officially because they don't like Zemmour and his attitude. According to this article in a very right-wing magazine, a meeting yesterday was quite violent, with Panzermiss blaming the zemmouristas for the failure of the alliance, to which Zemmour apparently replied 'f off', which she did within 5 minutes.

I haven't followed this drama much, but Panzermiss is followed by (MEPs-elect) Guillaume Peltier (right-wing opportunist who has been in six political parties, from the FN to LR and now REC, since 1996, lost his seat as deputy in 2022), Nicolas Bay (RN dissident) and Laurence Trochu (ex-LR, ultra-social conservative from the 'Mouvement conservateur' faction). On the other hand, Zemmour has Sarah Knafo, his girlfriend and advisor, as well as Stanislas Rigault, the head of the youth wing called 'Generation Z' (he also looks exactly how you'd expect a young zemmourista kid to look like). It seems like Panzermiss and the other career politicians who had followed Zemmour in 2022 now want to make their way back to the RN, which is in no great rush to welcome them back with open arms (Panzergirl is more forgiving towards traitors than Panzerdaddy but still) and will let them sit out in the cold for a while.

Panzermiss was unsuccessful, for the time being, at negotiating her way back into her aunt's good graces, but she has been quite successful at knifing and marginalizing Zemmour, who is at the point where he's a loser begging on right-wing media for right-wing alliances all while having been publicly denounced as the obstacle to one.

[Oryxslayer]

Won't the incumbency bonus be enough to carry most LR incumbents into runoffs, where they'll prevail against whatever widely unpopular faction they're up against? I doubt LR sees massive losses even with this recent chaos around them

Also to note, this is kinda what LR has been cruising on since Macron got elected in 2017. But the gas is almost out in many places, and it's a problem when a retirement in almost every part of the country means a de facto loss.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Won't the incumbency bonus be enough to carry most LR incumbents into runoffs, where they'll prevail against whatever widely unpopular faction they're up against? I doubt LR sees massive losses even with this recent chaos around them

Also to note, this is kinda what LR has been cruising on since Macron got elected in 2017. But the gas is almost out in many places, and it's a problem when a retirement in almost every part of the country means a de facto loss.

I also suspect that this might be a significantly more "national" election than 2017 and 2022, owing to the lack of a presidential election and to the looming shadow of a RN majority. Turnout will hopefully be higher (please God French voters, don't prove me wrong) and polarization seems stronger than ever. In this context I'm not sure if it's gonna be so easy for LR to carve out its usual spot, although I'm sure the more entrenched incumbents will survive.

[windjammer]

Anyway, this political drama is very funny.


Vive la France!

[Hash]

Having retaking control of the party hq, anti-Ciotti forces also control the Twitter account, but it has now been blocked by X (is Elon Musk siding with Chiotti?). Earlier today, the Facebook remained in the hands of Ciotti loyalists, but the anti-Ciotti mutineers seized control of the page earlier today (breaking through the trenches of two-factor authentication) who have, I quote, deleted posts "which do not correspond to the line of General de Gaulle".

https://twitter.com/Alexsulzer/status/1800924410922332363

(this is the funniest thing I've read in weeks)

[President Johnson]

Seems like LR is done for good.

[rob in cal]

Control of social media accounts is like control of telephone headquarters and radio stations for 20th century coup plotters.

[DL]

This poll shows the Left doing quite well against the RN...with Macron's party getting squeezed

 Le Rassemblement national est crédité de 31% des intentions de vote contre 28% pour l'alliance de gauche et 18% pour le bloc Renaissance et ses alliés tandis que les LR tomberaient à 6,5% et Reconquête à 4%.

https://www.latribune.fr/economie/france/legislatives-2024/sondage-exclusif-legislatives-le-rn-a-31-l-alliance-de-gauche-a-28-999721.html

[Logical]

Anyway, this political drama is very funny.


Vive la France!

France right now

[Hash]

Zemmour has excluded Panzermiss from the party and denounced her 'betrayal'.

[The Mikado]

Zemmour has excluded Panzermiss from the party and denounced her 'betrayal'.

For anyone up for some gossip time, how did she end up in a different ultra-right movement than her Aunt? I've never quite understood the dynamics here, though it seems like she's coming home to the family project at this point.

[KaiserDave]

LR mainstream showed rare courage, they would prefer irrelevance to alliance with the devil. I am assuming it is due to pride.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Zemmour has excluded Panzermiss from the party and denounced her 'betrayal'.

For anyone up for some gossip time, how did she end up in a different ultra-right movement than her Aunt? I've never quite understood the dynamics here, though it seems like she's coming home to the family project at this point.

From my understanding, there were some genuine ideological differences at play. Marine was really big on imprinting a new identity on the FN, going hard on the economic populism angle which is not really in the party's DNA. Marion meanwhile was a lot closer to her grandfather's view of the party as a fundamentally reactionary party in all respects. So, her switching sides to Zemmour makes a lot of sense in this light, as she's exactly the type of voter his campaign was aimed at. That said, ego is definitely a factor as well, and Marion was probably looking to escape her aunt's shadow and prove she could be a political force in her own right.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So the right in France has just descended into civil war
 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So the right in France has just descended into civil war
 

Things are looking good for NUPES aren't they?

[Coldstream]

I always felt having Zemmour around was a benefit to Marine Le Pen, it makes her seem more reasonable and responsible by having a ranting spectator columnist running to your right.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am amazed that Micron have been able not only to bring NPA to cooperate electorally with PS but also possibly end the conflict between Le Pen clan members. Brilliant move.

[Harlow]

So the right in France has just descended into civil war
 

Things are looking good for NUPES aren't they?

NUPES is the old alliance name/structure. Now they're the New Popular Front.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Popular_Front

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So the right in France has just descended into civil war
 

Things are looking good for NUPES aren't they?

NUPES is the old alliance name/structure. Now they're the New Popular Front.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Popular_Front

Clever name.