French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Antonio the Sixth]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Yeah I think the bigger thing is that if say Parliament is fairly similar in composition Macron will have more leeway to work with the left rather than being forced to work with LR.

I don't know why you're so desperate to make a Macron-left alliance happen. It's not going to happen. Macron had every opportunity to court support from the center-left for the past 7 years, and he did the exact opposite. He scooped up the more shamelessly careerist wing of the PS in 2017 already. What's left actually cares about left-wing policies to at least some extent, and it's been exceedingly clear that left-wing policy is something Macron cannot countenance.

Besides, why would the left even want to prop him up at this point? He's a widely reviled lame duck President. Supporting him would just mean being dragged with him into political irrelevancy.

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Yeah I think the bigger thing is that if say Parliament is fairly similar in composition Macron will have more leeway to work with the left rather than being forced to work with LR.

I don't know why you're so desperate to make a Macron-left alliance happen. It's not going to happen. Macron had every opportunity to court support from the center-left for the past 7 years, and he did the exact opposite. He scooped up the more shamelessly careerist wing of the PS in 2017 already. What's left actually cares about left-wing policies to at least some extent, and it's been exceedingly clear that left-wing policy is something Macron cannot countenance.

Besides, why would the left even want to prop him up at this point? He's a widely reviled lame duck President. Supporting him would just mean being dragged with him into political irrelevancy.

I’m not, I hope for the current configuration where Macron commands power but LR has to support but unfortunately LR is being stupid .

[Antonio the Sixth]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Yeah I think the bigger thing is that if say Parliament is fairly similar in composition Macron will have more leeway to work with the left rather than being forced to work with LR.

I don't know why you're so desperate to make a Macron-left alliance happen. It's not going to happen. Macron had every opportunity to court support from the center-left for the past 7 years, and he did the exact opposite. He scooped up the more shamelessly careerist wing of the PS in 2017 already. What's left actually cares about left-wing policies to at least some extent, and it's been exceedingly clear that left-wing policy is something Macron cannot countenance.

Besides, why would the left even want to prop him up at this point? He's a widely reviled lame duck President. Supporting him would just mean being dragged with him into political irrelevancy.

I’m not, I hope for the current configuration where Macron commands power but LR has to support but unfortunately LR is being stupid .

There's a decent chance LR actually breaks under the competing gravitational pulls of RN and Macron. RN is reportedly already working hard on wooing local MPs whose views are "compatible" with them. And Macron has all but suggested he'd be willing to find arrangements with MPs who pledge confidence and supply. Of course, it probably won't be enough for a majority.

[President Johnson]

I wonder when Macron actually made that decision. I'm relatively certain that was in the making for several weeks. He didn't just say on Election Sunday, "okay, maybe I should pull the trigger and dissolve the National Assembly".

[Zinneke]

I wonder when Macron actually made that decision. I'm relatively certain that was in the making for several weeks. He didn't just say on Election Sunday, "okay, maybe I should pull the trigger and dissolve the National Assembly".

He was waiting to see if Manuel Valls was available I think.

[Logical]

Harris poll for the snap election

RN 34
NUPES 22
Macronie 19
LR 9
DVG 8
REC 4
EXG 3

Seat projection

RN 235-295
Macronie 125-155
NUPES 115-146
LR 40-55
Souvrainists 0-2
Others 5-20

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is the first time there is a NA election without a Presidential election since there were 7 year Presidential terms before 2002.

[DL]

This is the first time there is a NA election without a Presidential election since there were 7 year Presidential terms before 2002.

Its not quite true - while in recent years the NA election has been in the same year as the Presidential election, it has NOT been simultaneous - typically the presidential election is in April/May and then the NA elections are in late June - and are highly influenced by who has won the presidential election. Its not like the US where people are voting for President and for most of Congress at the same time.

[soundchaser]

Harris poll for the snap election

Macron is such a dingus for this.

[jaichind]

Harris poll for the snap election

Macron is such a dingus for this.

I think this poll overestimates RN seats.  I suspect there will be more anti-RN tactical voting than in 2022. 

[Oryxslayer]

Harris poll for the snap election

Macron is such a dingus for this.

I think this poll overestimates RN seats.  I suspect there will be more anti-RN tactical voting than in 2022. 

More relevantly, we don't know if NUPES (and maybe also LR?) are going to be options. The point of flash polls is to grab attention, not exactly be accurate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I seriously doubt there will be any significant PS dissidents, or any other major DVG candidates that could poll as high as 8% across the board. For one thing, people on the center-left are a lot more acutely aware of the risk now that RN is the frontrunner (if someone really can't stomach a broad left alliance, they'd be more likely to vote for Macronismo instead as a tactical vote - I know several people who are normally left-leaning and did that yesterday already). And besides, the new Left alliance is not going to be under Mélenchon's leadership in the way NUPES was. This time PS is in a much stronger negotiating position, and that will probably matter in terms of how the coalition is perceived.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Antonio, can you tell us anything about Marion Marechal supposedly negotiating with Bardella behind Zemmour’s back to form a coalition with RN?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is the first time there is a NA election without a Presidential election since there were 7 year Presidential terms before 2002.

Its not quite true - while in recent years the NA election has been in the same year as the Presidential election, it has NOT been simultaneous - typically the presidential election is in April/May and then the NA elections are in late June - and are highly influenced by who has won the presidential election. Its not like the US where people are voting for President and for most of Congress at the same time.

I didn't mean exactly the same date, but generally together.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio, can you tell us anything about Marion Marechal supposedly negotiating with Bardella behind Zemmour’s back to form a coalition with RN?

That's an odd situation, yeah. Bardella seemed pretty chummy with her, and praised her campaign for not being as hostile to the RN as Zemmour had been in 2022. Zemmour himself hasn't spoken about it. My guess is that he's still going to sign off on any agreement she can negotiated, because frankly, Reconquête has a lot more to lose from failing to make an agreement than RN. But I guess it's not impossible that Maréchal returns to her Le Pen roots and jumps back on to the winning side.

Either way, I doubt an agreement or lack thereof would change the dynamic substantially. RN does not need help to get into runoffs, and they can probably count on Reconquête's votes in any runoff they get into.

[Logical]

NUPES 2.0 has been agreed to. They still need to allocate how many and which seats go to the different parties of course which I believe is the hardest part.

[windjammer]

NUPES 2.0 has been agreed to. They still need to allocate how many and which seats go to the different parties of course which I believe is the hardest part.

I wasn't expecting it to be so quick frankly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NUPES 2.0 has been agreed to. They still need to allocate how many and which seats go to the different parties of course which I believe is the hardest part.

I wasn't expecting it to be so quick frankly.

Me neither, but it's a very welcome surprise. It shows the left is taking things seriously.

Now the hardest part remains - actually apportioning constituencies across the various parties. Expect bitter fighting between LFI and PS, given how much their relative strength has changed since 2022. Hopefully they can come to a reasonable compromise.

[lfromnj]

Is Le pen basically winning all the Melenchon Le pen voters from 2022?

[windjammer]

Antonio,
Correct me if there is no majority after the elections it will be Impossible to make happen New elections until the next year right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio,
Correct me if there is no majority after the elections it will be Impossible to make happen New elections until the next year right?

Yeah, dissolution is constitutionally forbidden within a year of a previous one.

Really a recipe for disaster in every conceivable way.

[Hash]

Antonio,
Correct me if there is no majority after the elections it will be Impossible to make happen New elections until the next year right?

Yes, per article 12 there can be no dissolution in the year that follows the elections. We're stuck with whatever Frankenstein comes out of this until July 2025, nice job team etc.

[Zinneke]

Glucksmann just proposed Laurent Berger as a potential PM candidate for NUPES 2.0

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurent_Berger

(I honestly don't think Glucksmann is that bothered over Presidency or PM spots, in terms of personal ambition, but let's see

[DL]

Glucksmann just proposed Laurent Berger as a potential PM candidate for NUPES 2.0

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurent_Berger

(I honestly don't think Glucksmann is that bothered over Presidency or PM spots, in terms of personal ambition, but let's see

And what do people think of Laurent Berger? Is he a good choice?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glucksmann just proposed Laurent Berger as a potential PM candidate for NUPES 2.0

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurent_Berger

(I honestly don't think Glucksmann is that bothered over Presidency or PM spots, in terms of personal ambition, but let's see

And what do people think of Laurent Berger? Is he a good choice?

I think he'd be a great choice, if he's actually interested in the job (which he has given no indication to) and if LFI can swallow its pride and back him (always a risky proposition). He was the main face of the trade union movement opposing the pensions reform, and as the leader of the more moderate union CFDT he's seen as a more credible voice than most on the left.