Israel-Gaza war

[Silent Hunter]

Ground campaigns are full of uncertainty but the question of destroying or overwhelming air defenses is a matter of simple math. An air defense battery won't miraculously fire more interceptors than it can hold because it's highly motivated and a ballistic missile won't inflict less damage because it's demoralized. If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target defended by launchers capable of firing 50 interceptors then there's no uncertainty at all, the defenses will be overwhelmed. We don't need to wonder whether Hezbollah is capable of overwhelming the Iron Dome or whether it's capable of destroying Iron Dome launchers because it's done both on camera.

If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target, how many of them are going to come within three miles of said target? In any event, we're mixing up rockets - which Hezbollah has plenty of - and ballistic missiles, which they have a good deal less of. Possibly less in total than Iran fired at Israel earlier this year.

Maybe, but on that measure it seems pretty obvious that the Lebanese are far less dependent on their own electrical grid than the Israelis are. The Israelis certainly aren't treating the prospective destruction of their electrical grid as lightly as you are.

The Lebanese are just as reliant on electricity though, just a lot more of it comes from generators. Gaza was massively reliant on Israeli electricity and is now reliant on outside fuel for their generators.

Going back to Ukraine, Putin's strikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure have managed to knock out somewhere between 50% and 80% of their capacity and it isn't remotely clear that their air defense is any worse than that of Israel and in some respects (eg. countermeasures to drones) they're clearly superior. If a far larger country's electrical grid can be knocked out with missile strikes then there's little reason to think the same couldn't be done to Israel.

About half of Ukrainian generation capacity. They are importing a lot of electricity from the EU. Much of that generation capacity will come back over the next few weeks.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Ground campaigns are full of uncertainty but the question of destroying or overwhelming air defenses is a matter of simple math. An air defense battery won't miraculously fire more interceptors than it can hold because it's highly motivated and a ballistic missile won't inflict less damage because it's demoralized. If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target defended by launchers capable of firing 50 interceptors then there's no uncertainty at all, the defenses will be overwhelmed. We don't need to wonder whether Hezbollah is capable of overwhelming the Iron Dome or whether it's capable of destroying Iron Dome launchers because it's done both on camera.

If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target, how many of them are going to come within three miles of said target? In any event, we're mixing up rockets - which Hezbollah has plenty of - and ballistic missiles, which they have a good deal less of. Possibly less in total than Iran fired at Israel earlier this year.

If they wanted to be efficient they'd fire their cheapest rockets first to drain the batteries and then actually hit the target with a precision guided missile with a higher yield, a tactic they've demonstrated more than once so far. They've been able to penetrate at least as far as Haifa and Nazareth so Israeli air defense north of that line would be effectively useless in a "real war" where Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets a day.

It's also true they probably have fewer ballistic missiles, but it's also true that Israel has far fewer David's Sling/Arrow systems than Iron Dome systems and that the interception rate of the former is also far lower even on a good day. But they still likely have an enormous stockpile; for comparison, the Houthis are poorer, more isolated, less favoured by Iran and have been under a near total blockade and yet they've been able to fire off ballistic missiles for months at this point without pause. Hezbollah has supply lines that run straight through to Iran without interruption (barring the occasional IAF strike) and they've been stocking up for almost twenty years, they're obviously going to have a far greater supply, and greater capacity to resupply, than the Houthis.

The Lebanese are just as reliant on electricity though, just a lot more of it comes from generators. Gaza was massively reliant on Israeli electricity and is now reliant on outside fuel for their generators.

Right, the Lebanese are reliant on private generators and solar panels, methods of generation that are far harder to disrupt with targeted strikes than a centralized grid. Israel is a target rich environment in terms of expensive infrastructure vulnerable to strikes (besides the grid there's also ports, oil depots, airports...) whereas Lebanon isn't.

About half of Ukrainian generation capacity. They are importing a lot of electricity from the EU. Much of that generation capacity will come back over the next few weeks.

Right, they've been reduced to importing electricity and falling back on generators, you're proving my point that actually it is possible to cripple an electric grid through targeted strikes. It might have been tough in WW2 but it's entirely doable with modern technology.

[TheReckoning]

Comparison of Arab and Jewish nations in the region.

This is a stupid line of reasoning. If I have $100,000, and someone steals 1% of the 100,000, it would be absurd to say, “well, that was only 1% of your money, you still got 99k left. No wrong done here.” Stealing isn’t okay regardless.

[SuzerainOfSwat]

Gen. Petraeus has some interesting analysis on the war on LinkedIn

[Meclazine for Israel]

In a powerful act of defiance and remembrance, the largest flag in Israel, measuring 17 by 12 meters, now stands where Hamas terrorists tragically murdered 20 residents of Nativ Haasara on October 7th.

Twenty olive trees, symbolizing each life lost, encircle the flag memorial in a poignant tribute. This impactful display reaffirms Israel's unwavering resolve: it will not be intimidated by violence nor relinquish its presence in the region.

This inspiring initiative, a collaboration between Itay Levy and Moshav Netiv HaAsara, serves as a lasting testament to resilience and hope.


(Photo credit: Amnon Ziv)

[Agafin]

Comparison of Arab and Jewish nations in the region.

This is a stupid line of reasoning. If I have $100,000, and someone steals 1% of the 100,000, it would be absurd to say, “well, that was only 1% of your money, you still got 99k left. No wrong done here.” Stealing isn’t okay regardless.

I think it is more aimed at the people proclaiming they don't support ethnostates when their actions obviously prove they do, given that they have no problem with the dozens of ethnostates which surround Israel without their objection. And I would like to know which country was "stolen" by Israel (based on your analogy).

[Agafin]

Ground campaigns are full of uncertainty but the question of destroying or overwhelming air defenses is a matter of simple math. An air defense battery won't miraculously fire more interceptors than it can hold because it's highly motivated and a ballistic missile won't inflict less damage because it's demoralized. If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target defended by launchers capable of firing 50 interceptors then there's no uncertainty at all, the defenses will be overwhelmed. We don't need to wonder whether Hezbollah is capable of overwhelming the Iron Dome or whether it's capable of destroying Iron Dome launchers because it's done both on camera.

If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target, how many of them are going to come within three miles of said target? In any event, we're mixing up rockets - which Hezbollah has plenty of - and ballistic missiles, which they have a good deal less of. Possibly less in total than Iran fired at Israel earlier this year.

Maybe, but on that measure it seems pretty obvious that the Lebanese are far less dependent on their own electrical grid than the Israelis are. The Israelis certainly aren't treating the prospective destruction of their electrical grid as lightly as you are.

The Lebanese are just as reliant on electricity though, just a lot more of it comes from generators. Gaza was massively reliant on Israeli electricity and is now reliant on outside fuel for their generators.

Going back to Ukraine, Putin's strikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure have managed to knock out somewhere between 50% and 80% of their capacity and it isn't remotely clear that their air defense is any worse than that of Israel and in some respects (eg. countermeasures to drones) they're clearly superior. If a far larger country's electrical grid can be knocked out with missile strikes then there's little reason to think the same couldn't be done to Israel.

About half of Ukrainian generation capacity. They are importing a lot of electricity from the EU. Much of that generation capacity will come back over the next few weeks.

This is also one of the reasons why the Iron Dome is just as important to Israel as it is to Lebanon. If it fails, Israel will have no reason to be as restrained as it has been in Gaza.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/MFAofArmenia/status/1804080254698328311

[CumbrianLefty]

This is a stupid line of reasoning. If I have $100,000, and someone steals 1% of the 100,000, it would be absurd to say, “well, that was only 1% of your money, you still got 99k left. No wrong done here.” Stealing isn’t okay regardless.

Really, this "comparison" totally is one of the most bad faith and disingenuous things going - and one of the most reliable signs that someone is not to be taken seriously.

[Silent Hunter]

This is also one of the reasons why the Iron Dome is just as important to Israel as it is to Lebanon. If it fails, Israel will have no reason to be as restrained as it has been in Gaza.

Some might wonder how restrained Israel has actually been in Gaza; in any event, they've become a lot less restrained since 10/7.

[MyLifeIsYours]

Washed up singer of early-mid 2000s hard rock music joining in with the ranks of Nikki Haley in signing their names on devices that killed innocent civilians.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is a stupid line of reasoning. If I have $100,000, and someone steals 1% of the 100,000, it would be absurd to say, “well, that was only 1% of your money, you still got 99k left. No wrong done here.” Stealing isn’t okay regardless.

Really, this "comparison" really is one of the most bad faith and disingenuous things going - and one of the most reliable signs that someone is not to be taken seriously.

Funnily I've actually seen Putin simps use a similar argument. "Well look at all the land Ukraine still has, the amount Russia is occupying is a pretty small portion." Or "Look at all the land Russia already has, why would it start a war to take such a small amount in comparison?"

[Meclazine for Israel]

As a result of the 1948 war, large migrations of Jews occurred. But since then, the populations have evaporated.

[Brittain33]

As a result of the 1948 war, large migrations of Jews occurred. But since then, the populations have evaporated.

Don’t need to do apartheid if you 100% succeed in ethnic cleansing

[Hindsight was 2020]

As a result of the 1948 war, large migrations of Jews occurred. But since then, the populations have evaporated.

Still doesn’t give be Israel the right to do war crimes in Gaza

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1804397694405710004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israeli-reportedly-shot-in-west-bank-town-of-qalqilya/

"Images posted to social media appeared to show that his vehicle was later set on fire.

There is no immediate confirmation from the Israel Defense Forces or rescue services.

It’s unclear what the man was doing in Qalqilya. Israelis are barred from entering West Bank areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority."

[Meclazine for Israel]

A war with Hezbollah is looming nearer.

Col. Douglas McGregor

https://youtu.be/iXD8t7gYpTo

Ol' mate is talking with "almost certainty" that Israel.is about to go to war with Hezbollah.

The US has two carrier groups which can me made available off the coast of Israel to assist in the fight.

[Brittain33]

Still doesn’t give be Israel the right to do war crimes in Gaza

No, it’s Hamas’s refusal to accept defeat and continuing to drag this hopeless war on that justifies this tragic urban warfare, not the map of ethnic cleansing of Jews. You’re right about that.

The map does nearly illustrate the hypocrisy and tunnel vision of most criticism of the existence of the state of Israel and accusations of ethnic cleansing, the Nakba was a unique incident of Jewish treachery in a region of peaceful diversity etc. Lots of people protesting Israel’s existence are comfortable with ethnic cleansing when it’s Jews, Yazidis, Copts, even Sunni Muslims in Syria as the victims. It’s also corrective to the very common misconception that all Israelis are Ashkenazim with U.S. or German passports.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Still doesn’t give be Israel the right to do war crimes in Gaza

No, it’s Hamas’s refusal to accept defeat and continuing to drag this hopeless war on that justifies this tragic urban warfare, not the map of ethnic cleansing of Jews. You’re right about that.

The map does nearly illustrate the hypocrisy and tunnel vision of most criticism of the existence of the state of Israel and accusations of ethnic cleansing, the Nakba was a unique incident of Jewish treachery in a region of peaceful diversity etc. Lots of people protesting Israel’s existence are comfortable with ethnic cleansing when it’s Jews, Yazidis, Copts, even Sunni Muslims in Syria as the victims. It’s also corrective to the very common misconception that all Israelis are Ashkenazim with U.S. or German passports.

Just stop, blowing up refugee camps and firing at first aid workers or people trying to surrender doesn’t fall under “tragic urban warfare”

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Still doesn’t give be Israel the right to do war crimes in Gaza

Lots of people protesting Israel’s existence are comfortable with ethnic cleansing when it’s Jews, Yazidis, Copts, even Sunni Muslims in Syria as the victims.

I'm sure this is how you justify all these atrocities in your head, but no, the vast majority of us would not be okay with that.

To claim someone is 'comfortable with ethnic cleansing' you should probably have some personal proof, so to claim 'lots' of any large group of people would support that, besides the absolute blood-thirsty among us (humans) is just insane to say.

[Brittain33]

Still doesn’t give be Israel the right to do war crimes in Gaza

Lots of people protesting Israel’s existence are comfortable with ethnic cleansing when it’s Jews, Yazidis, Copts, even Sunni Muslims in Syria as the victims.

I'm sure this is how you justify all these atrocities in your head, but no, the vast majority of us would not be okay with that.

But that’s exactly what you do - you mourn the Nakba and share pictures of elderly Palestinians with their brass keys and talk about the right of return 75 years later, but have nothing to say about the victims of other ethnic cleansings in the same region, many of whom fled to Israel as refugees where they then get blamed for being colonizers by people upset about the Nakba. There are no encampments for the Yazidis, the Copts, the people of Sudan, and certainly not for the Jews of Yemen or Iraq. Some of that is historical, some of that is happening now.

You’re interpreting being ok with something as going out and expressing support for it. But all it takes is your quiet acceptance of ethnic cleansing to be ok with it.

That’s the point of the map that started this discussion.

[Brittain33]

Just stop, blowing up refugee camps and firing at first aid workers or people trying to surrender doesn’t fall under “tragic urban warfare”

I saw a tweet that Israel is now training animals to rape Palestinian prisoners, too.

What’s happening in Gaza is the terrible and tragic consequence of Hamas embedding itself with a civilian population, flooding the territory with ammunition and weapons, and willfully fighting to the last Gazan. Perhaps you have an example of urban warfare that isn’t tragic or destructive to civilians. Better yet, perhaps Hamas could end this all. But they won’t.

I mourn every day for the victims of this war - every day of war is another nail in the coffin of peace. The people who want to preserve Hamas’s ability to resist, who see the hostages as too valuable to the cause to surrender, are prolonging the suffering and death.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just stop, blowing up refugee camps and firing at first aid workers or people trying to surrender doesn’t fall under “tragic urban warfare”

I saw a tweet that Israel is now training animals to rape Palestinian prisoners, too.

Pinochet and Stroessner did that, so its not entirely without precedent.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Just stop, blowing up refugee camps and firing at first aid workers or people trying to surrender doesn’t fall under “tragic urban warfare”

I saw a tweet that Israel is now training animals to rape Palestinian prisoners, too.

Pinochet and Stroessner did that, so its not entirely without precedent.

Far-right figures like Jake Shields quickly latched onto it, so projection?

[kaoras]

Israel was quite unwavering in its support for Pinochet's dictatorship. Together with Apartheid's South Africa they were the only countries willing to sell weapons to feed the murder machine here.