French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Hash]

Flanby is running in Corrèze-1, which was (under different boundaries) his old seat. It was won by LR in a runoff against LFI in 2022, the LR (anti-Chiotti) incumbent is running again.

Before anyone asks: he wouldn't be the first former president to return post-presidency to the legislature: Giscard returned to the National Assembly following a by-election in 1984, and held his seat until retiring (to be succeeded by his son) in 2002, save for a brief stint as MEP (1989-1993).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not trying to defend Macron here (I'd vote for the Popular Front unless my constituency's candidate was from LFI) but it seems that the Macronistas are the only coalition that hasn't had some form of significant chaos.

Anyone with more knowledge of French politics know any more about the RE campaign?

You could say there's less "chaos" on the Macronista camp in the sense that they aren't having open battles for nominations, but that's not the same as running a disciplined or competent campaign. The prevailing sentiment among Macronista MPs seems to be a mix of confusion, anger and resignation. They had to basically beg the big guy not to intervene in the campaign too much (which he seems to have grudgingly acquiesced to) and instead left Attal to lead them to battle. But their only argument seems to be calling everyone else extremists and insisting they're the only serious people in France who can be trusted to govern. Which is an argument that's starting to get old after 7 years...

[Hindsight was 2020]

I know it’s still weeks away but is there any view on the most likely outcome here?

[Hash]

Because nothing can be straightforward and normal anymore: national PS sources claim to not have nominated Flanby, but rather Bernard Combes, mayor of Tulle and Flanby ally, but the departmental PS fédé has nominated Flanby.

In LFI purge news, the rest of the left alliance seems like they had assurances from LFI that they wouldn't purge deputies and that they wouldn't allow the redhead wife beater to use the colours of the alliance (which he is doing).

[Epaminondas]

I know it’s still weeks away but is there any view on the most likely outcome here?

Nationalist bloc ~ 220 seats
Rainbow Left bloc ~ 180
Macron bloc ~ 100
Conservative bloc ~ 50
Independents ~ 20

Doesn't sound unreasonable, though how any alliance gets to 290 from there is a mystery.

[adma]

I know it’s still weeks away but is there any view on the most likely outcome here?

Nationalist bloc ~ 220 seats
Rainbow Left bloc ~ 180
Macron bloc ~ 100
Conservative bloc ~ 50
Independents ~ 20

Doesn't sound unreasonable, though how any alliance gets to 290 from there is a mystery.

Given some of the recent poll numbers as well as the enduring ghost of a cordon sanitaire, I'm wondering whether the left bloc will be that far behind the nationalists--or even whether they'll be behind at all...

[jaichind]

I know it’s still weeks away but is there any view on the most likely outcome here?

Nationalist bloc ~ 220 seats
Rainbow Left bloc ~ 180
Macron bloc ~ 100
Conservative bloc ~ 50
Independents ~ 20

Doesn't sound unreasonable, though how any alliance gets to 290 from there is a mystery.

I am skeptical LR and allies can get into the second round in 50 seats let alone win 50 seats

[Antonio the Sixth]

We don't really know anything except that RN will almost certainly have a plurality and could conceivably have a majority. The left will probably be the main opposition bloc, but how strong that will be could vary a lot. And both LR and Macronismo could get wiped out but that's by no means a certainty.

[xelas81]

Have tensions have cooled New Caledonia so there won't any violence during the elections?
I'm also assuming people outside of New Caledonia stopped paying atention about islands. Is that correct?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Have tensions have cooled New Caledonia so there won't any violence during the elections?
I'm also no one outside of New Caledonia cares about them anymore?

Well, for one thing, the planned electoral reform is dead for the time being, as there's no parliament to pass it. That helps in the short term. Of course, if we get a Bardella government after these elections, things could get quite ugly...

[adma]

We don't really know anything except that RN will almost certainly have a plurality and could conceivably have a majority. The left will probably be the main opposition bloc, but how strong that will be could vary a lot. And both LR and Macronismo could get wiped out but that's by no means a certainty.

I'd place more bets on a RN non-plurality than on a majority, given the left-bloc surge and cordon sanitaire vestiges.  But a *lot* really depends upon the curious luck-of-the-draw happenstances of France's two-round system, which can upend a lot of conventional wisdom (even in '17, LREM didn't steamroller quite as anticipated in the second round, and legacy parties came out with *some* dignity intact)

[jaichind]

Say turnout is very high in the first round and there are lot of 3 way RN vs NFP vs ENS contests in the second round.  Will NFP and ENS work out a deal where the weaker of the two in the district withdraws?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have tensions have cooled New Caledonia so there won't any violence during the elections?
I'm also no one outside of New Caledonia cares about them anymore?

Well, for one thing, the planned electoral reform is dead for the time being, as there's no parliament to pass it. That helps in the short term. Of course, if we get a Bardella government after these elections, things could get quite ugly...

Is there much difference on New Caledonia policy among NFP, ENS, LR, and RN?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Have tensions have cooled New Caledonia so there won't any violence during the elections?
I'm also no one outside of New Caledonia cares about them anymore?

Well, for one thing, the planned electoral reform is dead for the time being, as there's no parliament to pass it. That helps in the short term. Of course, if we get a Bardella government after these elections, things could get quite ugly...

Is there much difference on New Caledonia policy among NFP, ENS, LR, and RN?

The Left is definitely more sympathetic to the Kanak cause, as you would expect. PS is the party that negotiated the Nouméa Accords, so they have credibility as the one political force that managed to deescalate violence on the island. FI meanwhile espouse full-on anticolonial rhetoric.

RN... frankly I have no clue what their official position on New Caledonia is, but I don't trust them for a nanosecond. Fascists are fascists are fascists.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have tensions have cooled New Caledonia so there won't any violence during the elections?
I'm also no one outside of New Caledonia cares about them anymore?

Well, for one thing, the planned electoral reform is dead for the time being, as there's no parliament to pass it. That helps in the short term. Of course, if we get a Bardella government after these elections, things could get quite ugly...

Is there much difference on New Caledonia policy among NFP, ENS, LR, and RN?

The Left is definitely more sympathetic to the Kanak cause, as you would expect. PS is the party that negotiated the Nouméa Accords, so they have credibility as the one political force that managed to deescalate violence on the island. FI meanwhile espouse full-on anticolonial rhetoric.

RN... frankly I have no clue what their official position on New Caledonia is, but I don't trust them for a nanosecond. Fascists are fascists are fascists.

https://www.lesechos.fr/politique-societe/regions/nouvelle-caledonie-le-rn-assume-un-spectaculaire-changement-de-ligne-2095564

Marine Le Pen changes position... “perhaps we need one more referendum in New Caledonia?” ". And adds: “but it has to be in 40 years.” ...The far-right party had until then distinguished itself as the spearhead of the opposition to the “consultations on the accession to sovereignty” provided for by the Nouméa agreement in 1998, and had denounced ten years earlier those of Matignon from which he came. During the 2012 presidential campaign, candidate Marine Le Pen was still angry against "the shenanigans of the Caledonian electorate", calling herself "a fierce opponent of the freezing of the electorate" - only people residing for twenty years on the Caillou could participate in the referendum - which she promised to remove from the agreement.

Google Translate FR -> EN
They also blame Macron for the unrest.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

While the same source said he was not “thinking about” another crack at the presidency in 2027, another Socialist Party figure told the paper: “If he can come back, he will come back.”

Looking back in December at his five-year mandate from 2012 to 2017, Mr Hollande said: “I’d thought of a campaign slogan if I’d stood for re-election. It was ‘All things considered, it wasn’t so bad’.”

Asked why he was so popular with young French people, he recently said: “For those aged between 18 and 25, I’m the president of their childhood. There was Father Christmas and the president. I was the president. They still like me.”

The man is optimistic, I'll say that.

[rob in cal]

Any polling on what the typical pro Macron voter does if faced with just a RN and NFP candidate in a runoff? Any guesses?

[lfromnj]

Any polling on what the typical pro Macron voter does if faced with just a RN and NFP candidate in a runoff? Any guesses?

Polling between Le Pen and Melenchon showed Le pen winning by 30 a couple months ago. Not sure how it would be against say a PS candidate .

[Epaminondas]

While the same source said he was not “thinking about” another crack at the presidency in 2027, another Socialist Party figure told the paper: “If he can come back, he will come back.”

Looking back in December at his five-year mandate from 2012 to 2017, Mr Hollande said: “I’d thought of a campaign slogan if I’d stood for re-election. It was ‘All things considered, it wasn’t so bad’.”

Asked why he was so popular with young French people, he recently said: “For those aged between 18 and 25, I’m the president of their childhood. There was Father Christmas and the president. I was the president. They still like me.”

The man is optimistic, I'll say that.

He must have memory-holed 2017.
Was talking to a relative in France recently, usually quite uninvolved in politics, who brought up and still vividly resents Holland for his scooter saga - which I'd completely forgotten.

[wnwnwn]

The left should keep the alliance for the long term and run legislative primaries the next time. Maybe made that promise for the 2026 election now, so both all sides of the alliance get enthusiastic and go to the ballot. For the circunstances they would had a good excuse to not do it now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While the same source said he was not “thinking about” another crack at the presidency in 2027, another Socialist Party figure told the paper: “If he can come back, he will come back.”

Looking back in December at his five-year mandate from 2012 to 2017, Mr Hollande said: “I’d thought of a campaign slogan if I’d stood for re-election. It was ‘All things considered, it wasn’t so bad’.”

Asked why he was so popular with young French people, he recently said: “For those aged between 18 and 25, I’m the president of their childhood. There was Father Christmas and the president. I was the president. They still like me.”

The man is optimistic, I'll say that.

He must have memory-holed 2017.
Was talking to a relative in France recently, usually quite uninvolved in politics, who brought up and still vividly resents Holland for his scooter saga - which I'd completely forgotten.

You are more like the average French person than your relative. Nobody cares about the scooter thing anymore. People on the left resent Hollande for his hard-right turn in the second half of his term (stuff like the Loi Travail which was proto-Macronist in many ways). People on the right think he was generally incompetent but tbh they don't think much about him at all. He might still speak to a small number of voters on the center-left who switched from him to Macron, but either way I doubt his candidacy will have much impact beyond his constituency.

[Agafin]

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

Wonder if Mélenchon gave him up as a tribute in exchange for getting away with his purge of Corbières, Garrido etc. If so he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. FI dissidents need to be fully supported.

As for Quattenens, rehabilitation is fine but I don't think it has to be in the form of a political career. Being a prominent face for an overtly feminist political movement is just not very credible at this point.

[Logical]

Mr 4% should still be forever held in contempt for introducing Manuel Valls into the world.

[Agafin]

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

Wonder if Mélenchon gave him up as a tribute in exchange for getting away with his purge of Corbières, Garrido etc. If so he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. FI dissidents need to be fully supported.

As for Quattenens, rehabilitation is fine but I don't think it has to be in the form of a political career. Being a prominent face for an overtly feminist political movement is just not very credible at this point.

I get it and yes rehabilitating someone is different from giving him a political career. But assuming that there's nothing he can do to be fully considered an "acceptable" again is proof that even the left is fine with a permanent punitive justice system.