Two Souths?

[pragmatic liberal]

The South has never actually been monolithic, even in the days of the Democratic "Solid South." Tennessee, for example, long had an active Republican Party, while Virginia voted for Republican presidential candidates in several elections and had an active two-party system in the late 19th Century (the Readjuster Party).

Even so, the South has often been considered to have common voting patterns. I wonder, however, if that is breaking down. Demographic trends and the last election seem to show an emerging division, between the Atlantic South and the inland South.

In the Atlantic South, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida all voted for Obama - Virginia by a margin very similar to Obama's national numbers. Georgia was within 5 points and even South Carolina was within 9.

Economically, all five states are wealthier than the inland South states, with Virginia more wealthy and more diverse than the U.S. average. In fact Virginia shows signs of politically becoming more of a Mid-Atlantic state than a classic Southern state.

Do you agree about this division? It seems like there's an Atlantic South in which voting patterns increasingly resemble the rest of the country and an inland South, which is solidly Republican and much more conservative. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Certainly, and much of it comes from Northern immigration.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Southern West Coast : used to be a less democratic zone until 1968 and then the most republcan part of the South. Trending democrat since the 2000 years.
Outer South : after 1968, it was the most democratic part of the South. Then, the only region that went for Clinton in 92 and 96. But since 1996, it started trending more and more GOP, and was totally unwinnable in 2008, except for MO.
Deep South : Certainly the most onservative part of the South. Was the stronghold of dixiecrats from 1948 to 1968, and then became solidly rep after 1980. Totally unwinnable for dems today.
Southwest : Very conservative zone, solidly Republican, though it took some time for Texas to get so strongly GOP.

[President Mitt]

Those Northern Immigrants coming down South (Im actually thinking about doing it too) are actually pretty Republican, but they are moderate on Social issues.

[Smash255]

Those Northern Immigrants coming down South (Im actually thinking about doing it too) are actually pretty Republican, but they are moderate on Social issues.

Not really that Republican.  Now many of them may have been the old school Rockefeller Republicans, but have left the GOP in recent years.  Look at the three biggest transplant areas, Northern VA, the research Triangle and the Charlotte area, all of which have trended HARD towards the Dems.

[fezzyfestoon]

Those Northern Immigrants coming down South (Im actually thinking about doing it too) are actually pretty Republican, but they are moderate on Social issues.

Not really that Republican.  Now many of them may have been the old school Rockefeller Republicans, but have left the GOP in recent years.  Look at the three biggest transplant areas, Northern VA, the research Triangle and the Charlotte area, all of which have trended HARD towards the Dems.

The truth.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Funny thing. I've once read that in late 1940s to early 1950s Alabama was considered, quote, liberal part of the Deep South against reactionary Mississippi and Georgia

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina has been an exception to the trend of the South Atlantic Coast, which I would not include Florida as being part of.  We've only swung from 2000 to 2008 as much as national swing, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina have swung several percentage points more to the Democrats than the national swing.

Florida actually had a anti-swing, since it swung less than the national swing.

[Padfoot]

South Carolina has been an exception to the trend of the South Atlantic Coast, which I would not include Florida as being part of.  We've only swung from 2000 to 2008 as much as national swing, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina have swung several percentage points more to the Democrats than the national swing.

Didn't two Republicans have unexpectedly close re-elections in the House though?  True, South Carolina is probably the lagger as far as the South Atlantic trending towards the Democrats goes.  But the trend is there, isn't it?

[phk]

South Carolina has been an exception to the trend of the South Atlantic Coast, which I would not include Florida as being part of.  We've only swung from 2000 to 2008 as much as national swing, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina have swung several percentage points more to the Democrats than the national swing.

Didn't two Republicans have unexpectedly close re-elections in the House though?  True, South Carolina is probably the lagger as far as the South Atlantic trending towards the Democrats goes.  But the trend is there, isn't it?

I actually think what happened in VA and NC will happen in SC but a lot slower.

[Smash255]

South Carolina has been an exception to the trend of the South Atlantic Coast, which I would not include Florida as being part of.  We've only swung from 2000 to 2008 as much as national swing, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina have swung several percentage points more to the Democrats than the national swing.

Didn't two Republicans have unexpectedly close re-elections in the House though?  True, South Carolina is probably the lagger as far as the South Atlantic trending towards the Democrats goes.  But the trend is there, isn't it?

It did swing a bit, but that may have been due to Obama's margin overall as it had no real trend compared to the national average.  The fact Obama did better with the white vote than Gore did leads you to believe the migration patters might start to have some impact.  My parents are moving to SC, right outside Charlotte, literally a 1/2 mile over the NC border at the extreme northern tip of the Panhandle in Lancaster County.  SC may make a slight Democratic move, but nowhere near the levels NC & VA have moved, it will likely take a double digit PV victory for Obama to take it in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

Southern West Coast : used to be a less democratic zone until 1968 and then the most republcan part of the South. Trending democrat since the 2000 years.
Outer South : after 1968, it was the most democratic part of the South. Then, the only region that went for Clinton in 92 and 96. But since 1996, it started trending more and more GOP, and was totally unwinnable in 2008, except for MO.
Deep South : Certainly the most conservative part of the South. Was the stronghold of dixiecrats from 1948 to 1968, and then became solidly rep after 1980. Totally unwinnable for dems today.
Southwest : Very conservative zone, solidly Republican, though it took some time for Texas to get so strongly GOP.

Another interpretation:

Red: the Atlantic South (except Florida).

These states used to be firmly Democratic after the Civil War and went firmly Republican (except Georgia from 1976 to 1992, largely due to the influence of Jimmy Carter, a Favorite Son) between 1968 and 2004, inclusive. They split almost evenly between Obama and McCain. They have attracted many economic fugitives from the North -- to Washington DC suburbs, southeastern Virginia, the Research Triangle, Charlotte, Atlanta, and the South Carolina Piedmont. (Southern Georgia is clearly Deep South like Mississippi and Alabama -- but not so strongly populated as northern Georgia). Demographics alone could shift Georgia into an Obama win in 2012.

They used to be known as some of the most reactionary in their politics as demonstrated by Senators George Allen, Jesse Helms, and (now) Saxby Chambliss (and he came close to losing his Senate seat in 2008)... and they used to be the source area for the Plantation culture in America.  Such is past. They are more urban than they used to be, and that changes political values.   

Pink: the "Resort"  South

These states are fairly similar in demographics (if diverse in geography) with large Hispanic populations. Much of the economic activity is resort-related (casinos, skiing, winter evasion) and this activity attracts people who are much more cosmopolitan in attitudes (and more liberal) than people with similar levels of education and economic status. These states got burned badly by the real estate meltdown which undermined the illusion of Dubya-era prosperity. Of these states, all voted for Dubya in 2004, and all but Arizona went for Obama -- and Arizona by less than the usual margin for a Favorite Son. Agrarian interests remain firmly GOP, but that's not where the people are anymore. 

New Mexico arguably belongs more with California

They were settled largely from the South (which explains Nevada because Las Vegas used to be a Southern city) except for native Hispanic and Indian populations.   

Blue: the Deep South. 

They definitely include Alabama and Mississippi -- and arguably Louisiana -- the three states most polarized in voting along racial lines. Southern Georgia really belongs here. These states went from racist, reactionary Democrats to the Dixiecrat secession of 1948, went back to voting for Stevenson and Kennedy, turned down the LBJ landslide because LBJ stood for civil rights for blacks, voted for George Wallace's racist campaign of 1968, and went Republican and have stayed that way except for the 1976 candidacy of Jimmy Carter -- whom they turned upon after finding that despite the drawl he wasn't politically one of them. Voters polarize between democrats (the de facto the Black People's Party) and Republicans (the de facto White People's Party) as no other state (except Louisiana in 2008) did.  Former Senator Trent Lott would have never been elected from any State other than Mississippi or Alabama.

Green and pine-green; the Clinton-but-not-Obama arc 

These states voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but rejected Obama by huge margins in 2008. Except for Louisiana they could be called the "Mountain South", an area settled heavily by Scots-Irish backwoods people. Except for Louisiana (which gets the dark green shading) these states did NOT polarize as did Alabama or Mississippi along racial lines. They are more industrialized than the Deep South, but they are still much more rural than the national average. Fundamentalist Christianity is strong from northern Louisiana to West Virginia, and such shapes political attitudes toward the GOP. They have far fewer blacks than Mississippi or Alabama (Louisiana clearly fitting the Alabama-Louisiana pattern).

These states can vote for a Southern moderate populist Democrat (Carter 1976, Clinton).. but not a d@mnyankee liberal (Humphrey, Kerry, Obama) or a Southerner who forgets his roots (Carter 1980, Gore 2000). They probably voted for Carter in 1976 because they figured that Ford was more likely to be a liberal RINO.  These states largely move in tandem, although Louisiana seems less likely to go for Obama in 2012 than any of the other states in this category. Can Obama win these states? Sure -- if he can be an effective populist running against a d@mnyankee technocrat like Romney or Ridge. They go to Obama only in a landslide.

Pale blue: the Central Plains and Utah.

If people are to consider Oklahoma "southern", then one might as well discuss Kansas and Nebraska, which vote essentially alike -- and have voted firmly Republican for a very long time. Except for the LBJ landslide of 1964, Democratic nominees for President have combined for only one electoral vote from these states since at least 1948 (when Truman won Oklahoma). Utah is definitely not Southern, but it is closer to voting like the Central Plains than any other region even if its geography is more like Nevada. 

Orange: Texas

Texas doesn't fit easily into any region of America; it straddlesregions due to its size and (for the South) diversity. It has characteristics of the Deep South (East Texas), the Resort South (the Rio Grande valley from El Paso to Brownsville), and the Central Plains (northwestern Texas, including about everything west of Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio except for El Paso) while containing an urban triangle including Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and Galveston.  Politically, Texas is a composite -- something like Kansas grafted onto Florida. Obama wins Texas if Florida goes for him by 8% or Kansas goes for the GOP nominee by less than 8%, neither of which is likely in 2012.  Because it is what it is I can discuss the Central Plains.

Beige: "Straddler" states

Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio are split about halfway (roughly along Interstate 70) between the Mountain South and the genuine North. Northern parts of these states (and some urban areas in southern Indiana and Ohio, as well as greater St. Louis and Kansas City in Missouri) vote more like Iowa or Michigan; the South is more like the Mountain South in culture and political life. Obama almost won Missouri, and barely won Indiana and Ohio; to the extent that these States are Northern they vote Democratic, and to the extent that they are Mountain South they vote Republican. Illinois and Pennsylvania are excluded because they voted decisively for Obama -- by more than 10% -- and are firmly in the so-called "Blue Firewall".    These states voted for Dubya in 2000 and 2004.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

red pragmatic conservative
blue traditional
green sunbelt or southwest

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina has been an exception to the trend of the South Atlantic Coast, which I would not include Florida as being part of.  We've only swung from 2000 to 2008 as much as national swing, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina have swung several percentage points more to the Democrats than the national swing.

Didn't two Republicans have unexpectedly close re-elections in the House though?  True, South Carolina is probably the lagger as far as the South Atlantic trending towards the Democrats goes.  But the trend is there, isn't it?

SC-1 and SC-2 were far closer than usual in 2008, but that was due to the combination of the national swing and to the Democrats running more than the usual token opponent with no visible campaign in those districts in 2008.  The results in South Carolina in 2008 were not evidence that South Carolina is trending Democrat to a degree greater than the national swing.  Our neighboring states have been doing that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The pragmatic south which encompasses MO, FL, and LA encompasses the Sun Belt.  These states were also known as the economic populist states.  I think the other part of the South which is not the sun belt is the 2nd amendment pro gun south.