CT Governor 2010
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Author Topic: CT Governor 2010  (Read 9177 times)
cinyc
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« on: July 28, 2009, 04:31:08 PM »
« edited: July 28, 2009, 04:35:44 PM by cinyc »
Might as well start a new thread, since questions on the 2010 Connecticut Governor's race have been popping up in the Dodd posts.

Today, State Senator Gary LeBeau (D-East Hartford) announced he is forming an exploratory committee to run for Connecticut Governor.  He joins fellow Democrats Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, former House Speaker James Amann, and longtime Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy in the Democratic field.  According to the Hartford Courant, only Amann has filed a full campaign committee.  Like LeBeau, the other two candidates formed exploratory committees.

Incumbent Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell has yet to form an exploratory committee or announce she is running for reelection.  Nor has she done much fundraising.  CQ reported that she only raised $20,000 in the second quarter of 2009, and has only $71,000 in cash on hand.  Two of the then-declared Democrat candidates raised about two times the cash she had on hand in the second quarter.

Despite this, Rell is expected to run for reelection.   You also have to figure that the Democrats will have to spend money in what may be a bruising primary battle.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2009, 05:04:22 PM »
If she runs for reelection she'll win.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2009, 12:57:49 AM »
Quote from: SamInTheSouth on July 28, 2009, 05:04:22 PM
If she runs for reelection she'll win.

Yeah, probably in a bigger landslide than with which she won in 2006 seeing as how 2006 wasn't a good year for Republicans and she's one of the most popular Governors in the nation. She's a RINO though, and although the mainstream Republican Party may not like her, the people of Connecticut sure do! Smiley
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cannonia
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2009, 06:15:03 AM »
If she's not fundraising or planning on a big campaign, doesn't that hurt the party?  She may be a shoe-in for re-election, but shouldn't she get out the vote to help the GOP Senate and House (and other down-ballot) candidates?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2009, 08:23:14 PM »
Quote from: cannonia on July 31, 2009, 06:15:03 AM
If she's not fundraising or planning on a big campaign, doesn't that hurt the party?  She may be a shoe-in for re-election, but shouldn't she get out the vote to help the GOP Senate and House (and other down-ballot) candidates?

Potentially but considering that the GOP is very weak in CT there isn't much she could do anyway.
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2009, 05:53:12 PM »
Ned Lamont is creating an exploratory committee for CT Gov.

Governor Rell still hasn't announced that she's running for reelection.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2009, 07:00:47 PM »
I wonder if the "Conservative Party" is planning to run a third-party candidate in this race to ensure a Democrat victory.  Maybe Hoffman can run - if district lines don't deter him, why should state lines?
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2009, 07:12:46 PM »
Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on November 04, 2009, 07:00:47 PM
I wonder if the "Conservative Party" is planning to run a third-party candidate in this race to ensure a Democrat victory.  Maybe Hoffman can run - if district lines don't deter him, why should state lines?

Connecticut doesn't have a viable Conservative Party.  That's a New York thing.  Nor is this a special election in which party leaders alone pick a poor candidate to run on the Republican line. Were there a primary in NY-23, the result may have differed.

Republicans picked up the mayors seats in Stamford and Norwich yesterday, by the way.
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2009, 08:31:48 PM »
Quote from: SamInTheSouth on July 28, 2009, 05:04:22 PM
If she runs for reelection she'll win.

That's true if she can recover effectively from her current misuse of state funds scandal [medium-high probability] and avoid any further ones [medium-unknown probability]





By the way, can we nominate someone besides Lamont?  The visual imagery is just going to be bad, and I'd rather not have Lieberman sitting there campaigning for Rell for an entire year.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2009, 08:33:40 PM »
Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on November 04, 2009, 07:00:47 PM
I wonder if the "Conservative Party" is planning to run a third-party candidate in this race to ensure a Democrat victory.  Maybe Hoffman can run - if district lines don't deter him, why should state lines?

State lines matter for Senate races, I'm not sure about CT's election laws.  But really, incumbents like Rell don't lose their own primaries unless they are REALLY unpopular...like worse than Corzine or Blago '06.  Think like Gibbons...Rell's not there yet.
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2009, 05:21:37 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2009, 05:23:17 PM by cinyc »
Governor Rell announced that she's not running for re-election.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2009, 06:16:03 PM »
How does Connecticut feel about Governor Blumenthal? 

Also, will any of the challengers for Dodd's seat pivot to the state house?
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pogo stick
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2009, 06:17:19 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2009, 06:19:00 PM by Palin-Huckabee 2012 »


I Liked Rell, until the whole thing with her getting a "peak" at her ratings
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2009, 06:45:08 PM »
Connecticut Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) has thrown his hat in the ring, FWIW.
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Lunar
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« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2009, 06:47:49 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on November 09, 2009, 06:45:08 PM
Connecticut Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (R) has thrown his hat in the ring, FWIW.

Smart move on his part, I'm sure he's been considering this since Rell's scandal first broke in case she had to spontaneously resign or not seek reelection. 

Will take a few weeks though for the race to settle I suppose...I don't know if any CT Congressmen have ambitions [they have two farts as Senators] or if Blumenthal will man up etc.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2009, 07:09:55 PM »
Well, Blumenthal does tease Democrats every four years, but I believe he's more interested in running for Lieberman's seat in 2012.
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Lunar
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« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2009, 07:48:24 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on November 09, 2009, 07:09:55 PM
Well, Blumenthal does tease Democrats every four years, but I believe he's more interested in running for Lieberman's seat in 2012.

That was before, but at the time the governor's seat didn't even look competitive

But yeah, who knows.  It's easier to make the transition to governor though since that won't involve moving to D.C.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: November 09, 2009, 08:16:29 PM »
Blah, -1 for the GOP:

http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-rell-no-relection-1109,0,2210088.story
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Lunar
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« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2009, 08:19:25 PM »

Eh, if it's a Lamont/Dodd ticket, I could see them still having a shot. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2009, 02:01:41 PM »
The latest Quinnipiac poll was conducted just before Rell announced her decision not to run:

Rell: 46%
Bysiewicz: 40%

Rell: 52%
Malloy: 33%

Rell: 53%
Lamont: 33%

Connecticut voters approve 64 - 30 percent of the job Rell is doing.

What's more important now, the DEM Primary:

Bysiewicz: 26%
Lamont: 23%
Malloy: 9%

Favorable Ratings:

Rell: 60% Favorable, 29% Unfavorable
Bysiewicz: 43% Favorable, 11% Unfavorable
Lamont: 31% Favorable, 24% Unfavorable
Malloy: 21% Favorable, 10% Unfavorable

From November 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,236 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 474 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1393
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Lunar
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« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2009, 02:05:30 PM »
lol can we trust the big Q to poll this race?
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Rowan
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« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2009, 02:07:37 PM »
She has a 64% approval rating but only gets 46% of the vote? Somehow that doesn't compute.
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Holmes
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« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2009, 03:07:36 PM »
Is it possible that in 2011, no Republicans will control any New England state?
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Lunar
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« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2009, 03:15:14 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on November 10, 2009, 03:07:36 PM
Is it possible that in 2011, no Republicans will control any New England state?

Of course that's possible, a few caveats of course that you have to allow for Independents in RI & MA, and the GOP could easily surround New England with governorships in MI, OH, PA, NJ Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2009, 03:19:24 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on November 10, 2009, 02:05:30 PM
lol can we trust the big Q to poll this race?

The poll must have been done before Ned Lamont announced he might run.
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