If Palin forms a third party to run for the presidency, what happens

[Lunar]

Outside of the obvious.

And yes, this is a serious topic within the realm of feasibility in my opinion due to a number of factors:
1) Some rumors circulating around Alaska Political Blogs that she may be thinking about this
2) Palin's tendency to surround herself with sycophants
3) Palin's possible extensive narcissism to the point of delusion and questionable, at best, political skills   

[pbrower2a]

Outside of the obvious.

And yes, this is a serious topic within the realm of feasibility in my opinion due to a number of factors:
1) Some rumors circulating around Alaska Political Blogs that she may be thinking about this
2) Palin's tendency to surround herself with sycophants
3) Palin's possible extensive narcissism to the point of delusion and questionable, at best, political skills   

Third-party candidacies are almost invariably disasters for the party from which the secession comes. The only President who survived a third-party challenge from within his own Party was Harry Truman, who would have won in 1948 by a landslide without the Dixiecrat secession, and then only because the Dixiecrat Party having no appeal north of the Ohio River. To give some idea of how close Truman was to winning by a landslide, Truman came close to winning Indiana in 1948. For America and Truman the Dixiecrat secession showed that nationwide politicians didn't have to give in to the racists to win elections. In an otherwise-close election, a Third Party secession wrecks a Party that can't afford to lose anything.

 Sarah Palin would cut almost entirely into Republican votes at a time in which the GOP nominee will need every possible vote to challenge Obama in 2012.  For all practical purposes a vote for Sarah Palin will be a vote for Barack Obama. About all that Sarah Palin has to offer as a candidate is sex appeal. She is Ross Perot without a coherent agenda.

The GOP depends heavily upon the anti-intellectual vote, and she will get a big chunk of that. That could split the white vote in such a states as Mississippi and Alabama enough for Obama to win there.     

[Lunar]

About all that Sarah Palin has to offer as a candidate is sex appeal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

....


she also offers culture wars.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If this is what Sarah truly wants to do, I can do nothing but support her decission. The more republicans in the race the merrier, right?

I don't think Palin is crazy enough to do that. She's not the smartest politician out there, but she's not delusional. She'd be aware that she could not possibly win, and she'd just make it impossible for the real GOP candidate to win as well.

Anyway if it did happen, it would be fun to see Fox News and other conservative media do a 180 degree turn on her. She'd go from being, the poor Alaskan governor that had to quit her job because the liberals wouldn't stop harassing her, to the treatures idiot that doesn't even know Afirica is not a country, in a heartbeat.

 

[You kip if you want to...]

Sarah Palin (I-AK) 2012!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mechaman]

If this is truly what Sarah truly wants to do, I can do nothing but support her desission. The more republicans in the race the merrier, right?

I don't think Palin is crazy enough to do that. She's not the smartest politician out there, but she's not delusional. She'd be aware that she could not possibly win, and she'd just make it impossible for the real GOP candidate to win as well.

Anyway if it did happen, it would be fun to see Fox News and other conservative media do a 180 degree turn on her. She'd go from being, the poor Alaskan governor that had to quit her job because the liberals wouldn't stop harassing her, to the treatures idiot that doesn't even know Afirica is not a country, in a heartbeat.

 

OMG! Africa is no longer a country! Somebody call the Idiot Considering a Future Run For President Squad!

[RIP Robert H Bork]

If this is what Sarah truly wants to do, I can do nothing but support her decission. The more republicans in the race the merrier, right?

I don't think Palin is crazy enough to do that. She's not the smartest politician out there, but she's not delusional. She'd be aware that she could not possibly win, and she'd just make it impossible for the real GOP candidate to win as well.

Anyway if it did happen, it would be fun to see Fox News and other conservative media do a 180 degree turn on her. She'd go from being, the poor Alaskan governor that had to quit her job because the liberals wouldn't stop harassing her, to the treatures idiot that doesn't even know Afirica is not a country, in a heartbeat.

 

^^^^

I could not say it any better myself.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It would be the end of the Republican Party.  The GOP would lose most of the religious right and one of 2 things would happen:

1. The libertarian Republicans would leave to the Libertarian party (since at this point, the GOP is too small to win much of anything nationally anyway, so what's the point in staying?), leaving the basic conservatives to a party of their own (a center-right party) - effectively killing the conservative and libertarian movements for years to come - Democrats would have an easy supermajority
2. The Libertarians decide to take over the party, and the conservatives in America still have a decent voice in national politics, but the Democrats can still easily do what they want.

[minionofmidas]

She beats Bob Barr. But not Nader'00.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

She beats Bob Barr.

Because that's really hard to do. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Google Indonesia. Nice.

It would be the end of the Republican Party.  The GOP would lose most of the religious right and one of 2 things would happen:

1. The libertarian Republicans would leave to the Libertarian party (since at this point, the GOP is too small to win much of anything nationally anyway, so what's the point in staying?), leaving the basic conservatives to a party of their own (a center-right party) - effectively killing the conservative and libertarian movements for years to come - Democrats would have an easy supermajority
2. The Libertarians decide to take over the party, and the conservatives in America still have a decent voice in national politics, but the Democrats can still easily do what they want.

Just like Thurmond/Wallace '48 killed the Democrats. I agree completely.

It would certainly be fun to see a third-party candidate carry a state for once.

[pogo stick]

I'd vote third party (Palin)

[pragmatic liberal]

Outside of the obvious.

And yes, this is a serious topic within the realm of feasibility in my opinion due to a number of factors:
1) Some rumors circulating around Alaska Political Blogs that she may be thinking about this
2) Palin's tendency to surround herself with sycophants
3) Palin's possible extensive narcissism to the point of delusion and questionable, at best, political skills   

Third-party candidacies are almost invariably disasters for the party from which the secession comes. The only President who survived a third-party challenge from within his own Party was Harry Truman, who would have won in 1948 by a landslide without the Dixiecrat secession, and then only because the Dixiecrat Party having no appeal north of the Mississippi River. To give some idea of how close Truman was to winning by a landslide, Truman came close to winning Indiana in 1948. For America and Truman the Dixiecrat secession showed that nationwide politicians didn't have to give in to the racists to win elections. In an otherwise-close election, a Third Party secession wrecks a Party that can't afford to lose anything.

 Sarah Palin would cut almost entirely into Republican votes at a time in which the GOP nominee will need every possible vote to challenge Obama in 2012.  For all practical purposes a vote for Sarah Palin will be a vote for Barack Obama. About all that Sarah Palin has to offer as a candidate is sex appeal. She is Ross Perot without a coherent agenda.

The GOP depends heavily upon the anti-intellectual vote, and she will get a big chunk of that. That could split the white vote in such a states as Mississippi and Alabama enough for Obama to win there.     

Indiana was actually not a Republican stronghold in presidential elections until later, arguably. It voted for FDR twice, and though it voted for Willkie in 1940 and Dewey in '44, both times it was extremely narrow. And both times it was joined by one of its big neighbors - Michigan in '40, Ohio in '44, and Illinois both times nearly voted for the Republican too.

It only in the '60s that Indiana began voting substantially more Republican than the country as a whole at the presidential level.

[King]

I'd vote third party (Palin)

Will you be able to vote in 2012?

[Хahar 🤔]

I'd vote third party (Palin)

Will you be able to vote in 2012?

I will, so I assume he will.

[Rob]

She beats Bob Barr. But not Nader'00.

I think she could easily get up to John Anderson/Ross Perot ('96) levels.

[Lunar]

Google Indonesia. Nice.

Google won't let me access anything else here. 

[bgwah]

It would almost guarantee Barack Obama his re-election, even if his ratings aren't very good.

Assuming Palin's party ran candidates for Congress, it would likely give very large majorities to the Democrats.

I suspect after being an unfettered disaster for the right in America during the early 2010s, Palin's party would collapse within a decade and the right would re-unite under the GOP and win and a 1994-esque victory against the Democrats, who would have been a little too comfortable and perhaps cocky with their large majorities...

[Mr. Morden]

The rumors don't seem to be based on anything, beyond Palin statements about advancing ideas that transcend partisan allegiances.  To me, that points more towards something like an issue advocacy group, like the Christian Coalition or some such thing, which isn't formally aligned with either political party, but obviously has interests that align more with one party than the other.  There's nothing really to suggest that she'd actually be interested in forming a new *political party* as such.

[Lunar]

Oh, I agree, it's a rather outlandish idea.  And if she was going to form her own party, you'd have expected her resignation speech to be something emphasizing that "now is the moment to define politics" and the conflict between that and her governorship instead of simply whining about all of the petty rumors and allegations against her family. 

On the other hand, she seems to be impulsive and her political success has a lot to do with her willingness to carpe diem at every opportunity.

[The Duke]

The one thing that might keep her from getting 15-20% as a third party candidate is that Republicans hate Obama and don't want to contribute to his re-election.  If we see polls that show Obama 40% Romney 30% and Palin 20% in September, I just think a lot of Palin backers are going to start returning to the Republican candidate.

But what if they don't?  What if southerners and evangelicals tend to stay with Palin even though they're hurting the odds of unseating Obama?  What if Obama ends up with the same 42% or 43% n a three way race?  Doesn't the map end up something like the mess below?

And if it ends up being the above map with a popular vote that's something like Obama 43%, Romney 34%, Palin 23%, doesn't that give Obama a pretty heavily Republican Congress?  If the 57% of people who voted for Romney and Palin also voted mostly Republican down ticket, that's a pretty heavily Republican Congress, right?

[Lunar]

Funny enough, I'd expect Obama to have a solid shot at places like Mississippi, even if they turn out to be some of Palin's best states.

[Хahar 🤔]

Google Indonesia. Nice.

Google won't let me access anything else here. 

That's weird. I think I can access every Google.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I would lobby Network executives to run a reality-tv show about the campaign. Then watch hilarity ensue.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

1. She would lose and be politically finished FOREVER
2. She would going down woth history as undisputable idiot
3. GOP would lose, as her run would be very harmful to any nominee
4. I'd be glad from this scenario