JFK vs. Rocky, 1964

[President Mitt]

Lets say JFK doesn't get Assassinated, the rest of his term passes without little excitement, Civil Rights still haven't been passed. But, JFK does dump LBJ from the ticket, (he actually thought about doing this in RL) in favor of Kennedy ally, George Smathers. Rocky snatches the Nomination from Scranton and Goldwater, and chooses Cecil Underwood (WV) as his running mate.

John Kennedy/ George Smathers vs. Nelson Rockefeller/ Cecil Underwood

[President Mitt]

Whats with SC? It voted for JFK over Moderate Nixon, I still think SC would vote JFK in 1964 over the liberal Rockefeller.

[RI]

I'd think a Southern third party would run.

[President Mitt]

Whats with SC? It voted for JFK over Moderate Nixon, I still think SC would vote JFK in 1964 over the liberal Rockefeller.

South Carolina was a state that was leaning towards Nixon in the final days of 1960 campaign but polls proved to be wrong and went to Kennedy.

The south was already planning on not voting for Kennedy in 1964. South Carolina narrowly goes against Kennedy.

But as you said, everybody was expecting a Goldwater, including the South, and they got a Liberal-Northeastern-Pro- Civil Rights Rockefeller. Kennedy at least picked a Conservative Southerner as a Running Mate.

SC=Kennedy

[Landslide Lyndon]

I doubt also that California would go for Rockefeller.
Native son Nixon barely caried it.
Without him on the ticket, Kennedy wins.

[pragmatic liberal]

Rocky wouldn't win. He scandalized a lot of the country with his divorce and remarriage earlier that year, Kennedy was popular, and the economy was doing extremely well.

In this scenario, Kennedy does lose most of the South to a third party effort, although he holds on for a plurality win in Florida. In real life, I doubt Kennedy would actually have dropped Johnson. I know he talked about the possibility privately of replacing him with Terry Sanford or George Smathers, but to drop Johnson would have resulted in a big, nasty mess at the convention and would cost JFK Texas and whatever he would have been able to carry with the South.

But, in the scenario you presented:

Kennedy: 346 EV, 52% pop. vote
Rockefeller: 139 EV, 41% pop. vote
George Wallace (?): 53 EV, 7% pop. vote