An update from Dr. Roubini

[CARLHAYDEN]

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-181334-centerthe-joblessness-threatbr-i-by-i-brnouriel-roubinicenter.html

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

"Little wonder, then, that we are now witnessing a significant correction in equity, credit and commodities markets. The irrational exuberance that drove a three-month bear-market rally in the spring is now giving way to a sober realization among investors that the global recession will not be over until year end, that the recovery will be weak and well below trend and that the risks of a double-dip W-shaped recession are rising."

the doctor you didn't listen to (but I did) last fall when he was right, is the same doctor you're listening to now (but I'm not) when he is wrong

[CARLHAYDEN]

"Little wonder, then, that we are now witnessing a significant correction in equity, credit and commodities markets. The irrational exuberance that drove a three-month bear-market rally in the spring is now giving way to a sober realization among investors that the global recession will not be over until year end, that the recovery will be weak and well below trend and that the risks of a double-dip W-shaped recession are rising."

the doctor you didn't listen to (but I did) last fall when he was right, is the same doctor you're listening to now (but I'm not) when he is wrong

Wrong again!

Last year I was clear that the United States would endure severe financial distress.  I am on record at this forum on that matter, so please stop the lying.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well, let’s see:

Roubini had been declaring “Systemic Risks” for months and months before the meltdown, even as early as Jan 2008:

http://media.rgemonitor.com/papers/0/12_steps_NR

Yet, even as late as Dec 2008, AFTER the meltdown, you still had issues with those, like Roubini and I, who believed we were facing imminent risks that the system could collapse entirely.

Finally it is clear that by declaring a period a "systemic risk" you have just given Citi a pass to do anything it wants with its depositors and investors money, including the involuntary investors, the taxpayers.

You’re a Johnny-Come-Lately to Roubini’s "Systemic Risk" thesis, yet you attempt to act like he’s your old buddy.  I, on the other hand, agreed with those like Roubini who were declaring “systemic risks”, and as one of the few Republicans on this forum to push for even more drastic steps than what the Feds were doing, I was repeated mocked, even by you, for using the term “systemic risk”.

So, even though I agreed with the likes of Roubini back in 2008, and you didn’t, I no longer agree with him, but now you do.  Now, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion, no one knows how this is going to shake out, but please don’t shine us on by referring to him as “Dr.” and lifting him up on a pedestal as if he’s your long-term bud.

Like most economists, Roubini's career has been marked by more incorrect predictions than correct ones.  And when economists do happen to be correct, they have the tendancy to overplay the very thesis paying their meal ticket.

Don’t become enamored by the thesis of men, CARLHAYDEN, for at some point in time, they will fail.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Well, let’s see:

Roubini had been declaring “Systemic Risks” for months and months before the meltdown, even as early as Jan 2008:

http://media.rgemonitor.com/papers/0/12_steps_NR

Yet, even as late as Dec 2008, AFTER the meltdown, you still had issues with those, like Roubini and I, who believed we were facing imminent risks that the system could collapse entirely.

Finally it is clear that by declaring a period a "systemic risk" you have just given Citi a pass to do anything it wants with its depositors and investors money, including the involuntary investors, the taxpayers.

You’re a Johnny-Come-Lately to Roubini’s "Systemic Risk" thesis, yet you attempt to act like he’s your old buddy.  I, on the other hand, agreed with those like Roubini who were declaring “systemic risks”, and as one of the few Republicans on this forum to push for even more drastic steps than what the Feds were doing, I was repeated mocked, even by you, for using the term “systemic risk”.

So, even though I agreed with the likes of Roubini back in 2008, and you didn’t, I no longer agree with him, but now you do.  Now, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion, no one knows how this is going to shake out, but please don’t shine us on by referring to him as “Dr.” and lifting him up on a pedestal as if he’s your long-term bud.

Like most economists, Roubini's career has been marked by more incorrect predictions than correct ones.  And when economists do happen to be correct, they have the tendancy to overplay the very thesis paying their meal ticket.

Don’t become enamored by the thesis of men, CARLHAYDEN, for at some point in time, they will fail.

Nice try at spinning, but it won't work.

Now, I did not last year and do not now share your belief that there is a "systemic risk," in the sense you use the term.

You have made it abundantly clear that you reject the central thesis of free enterprise that those who make serious errorsshould suffer the consequences for their errors.  You bellow. "systemic risk," and try to maintain there were no errors made that should have consequences, and proceed to fleece the taxpayers.

Now, as I maintained (and you never denied), I predicted that the economy would be going seriously sour a year ago.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Now, as I maintained (and you never denied), I predicted that the economy would be going seriously sour a year ago.

oh, yes, you were negative on the economy, but for all the wrong reasons:

The real economic crisis is NOT in the housing industry but rather in the high rate of price increases for foodstuffs, particularyly dairy prices (especially milk and eggs).

So, as I said, you weren't in step with Roubini

[CARLHAYDEN]

Now, as I maintained (and you never denied), I predicted that the economy would be going seriously sour a year ago.

oh, yes, you were negative on the economy, but for all the wrong reasons:

The real economic crisis is NOT in the housing industry but rather in the high rate of price increases for foodstuffs, particularyly dairy prices (especially milk and eggs).

So, as I said, you weren't in step with Roubini

At the time I posted the matter you cited, food prices were rising at a rate of approximately 20% per annum.  Fortunately the free market resolved the problem.

Unfortunately, the problem in the housing market has been addressed with "crony capitalism."  Which is why it has gotten worse.

Now I realize you believe that the purpose of the government is to soak the middle class to support the incompetent (and often criminal) corporate bigwigs.